{"status":true,"post":{"id":22674,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:19:28","created_at":"2020-08-13T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:19:28.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":22674,"is_featured":0,"title":"ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131yor","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi ve i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 i\u00e7in T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011feri, istikrar\u0131 ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir olmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011feri denilince ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011feri izleniyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n seyri de T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 i\u00e7in belirleyici oluyor. Bunlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda dolar ve T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin beklentileri de\u011ferlendirelim. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>1.<\/strong> <strong>ABD DOLARI UZUN S\u00dcRE DE\u011eERL\u0130 KALDI<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> ABD dolar\u0131, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli rezerv para birimi olarak sadece ABD taraf\u0131ndan de\u011fil, t\u00fcm \u00fclkeler taraf\u0131ndan kullan\u0131l\u0131yor. Bug\u00fcn ABD ekonomisine en b\u00fcy\u00fck rakip \u00fclke olan \u00c7in, ayn\u0131 zamanda elinde ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda en \u00e7ok dolar likiditesi tutan \u00fclke. Dolar, yak\u0131n gelecekte en \u00f6nemli rezerv para olma i\u015flevini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. ABD dolar\u0131, Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015fkanl\u0131k d\u00f6neminde di\u011fer para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha de\u011ferli oldu. Dolar\u0131 daha de\u011ferli yapan, k\u0131smen ABD ekonomisindeki toparlanma iken daha \u00e7ok k\u00fcresel siyasi ve jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler oldu. 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren ba\u015flayan k\u00fcresel ticarette korumac\u0131l\u0131k, ABD-\u00c7in gerginli\u011fi ve jeopolitik riskler ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6neminde de dolar en \u00f6nemli g\u00fcvenli liman i\u015flevi ile daha da de\u011fer kazand\u0131. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>2. ABD DOLARI ZAYIFLAMAYA BA\u015eLADI <\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> ABD dolar\u0131 haziran ay\u0131ndan itibaren zay\u0131flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Zay\u0131flaman\u0131n nedeni, ekonomideki geli\u015fmeler veya rezerv para olarak di\u011fer para birimlerine ge\u00e7i\u015f de\u011fil. Dijital ve kripto para birimleri de dolar ile fiyatland\u0131klar\u0131 s\u00fcrece ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferini etkileyemeyecek. Dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n nedeni, ABD siyasetindeki belirsizliktir. Buna, mevcut y\u00f6netimin Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 ile m\u00fccadeledeki ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da dahildir. ABD\u2019de Trump ile devam edilmesi halinde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez bir d\u00fcnya endi\u015fe yarat\u0131yor. Biden\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7ilmesi halinde bunun dolar \u00fczerinde nas\u0131l bir etki yarataca\u011f\u0131 da belirsizdir. Ancak dolara esas de\u011fer kaybettiren, Trump\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7imlerin iptali talebi ve se\u00e7imlerin yap\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n me\u015fru olmayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 oldu. ABD, tarihinde ilk kez se\u00e7imlerin iptali ya da sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n iptali ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabilecek. K\u00fcresel alanda bu riski almak istemeyenler de dolardan ka\u00e7maya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu nedenle dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>3. ABD SE\u00c7\u0130MLER\u0130NE KADAR ABD DOLARINA NE OLUR? <\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> ABD se\u00e7imlerine kadar olan d\u00f6nemde ABD dolar\u0131 zay\u0131f kalmaya ve zay\u0131flamaya devam edecek. Euro-dolar paritesi 1.15 seviyesini a\u015farak 1.18 seviyelerine kadar ula\u015ft\u0131. Pariteyi AB taraf\u0131nda etkileyecek \u00e7ok fazla unsur kalmad\u0131. Pariteyi daha \u00e7ok ABD\u2019de se\u00e7ime kadar olan d\u00f6nemdeki siyasi geli\u015fmeler belirleyecek. Ekonomik olarak da dolar \u00fczerinde kuvvetli etki yaratacak bir unsur kalmad\u0131. Fed, se\u00e7imlerden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak geni\u015fletici para politikas\u0131na uzun s\u00fcre devam edece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Parite, se\u00e7ime kadar 1.16-1.18 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda seyredecek. Se\u00e7imlerin iptaline y\u00f6nelik giri\u015fimler vb. halinde ise Euro-dolar paritesi 1.20 seviyesini a\u015facak. Se\u00e7imlerin yap\u0131lmas\u0131, Trump ve Biden\u2019\u0131n kazanmalar\u0131 halinde ABD dolar\u0131na ili\u015fkin halen fiyatlamalar ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Bunun nedeni ise her ikisi i\u00e7in de ekonomiye ili\u015fkin olarak ta\u015f\u0131nan endi\u015felerdir. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>4. ABD DOLARI ZAYIFLARKEN T\u00dcRK L\u0130RASI NEDEN DE\u011eER KAYBED\u0130YOR? <\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011feri dolar endeksi ile izleniyor. Bu endeks 1973 y\u0131l\u0131nda ba\u015flad\u0131. Dolar\u0131n 6 geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke para birimi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki sepet de\u011feri \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Dolar endeksi 1973 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in 100 kabul edildi. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 etkisi ile g\u00fcvenli liman dolar de\u011fer kazand\u0131 ve endeks 102 seviyesine kadar y\u00fckseldi. Daha sonraki s\u00fcre\u00e7te ise dolar endeksi 93 puana kadar indi ve dolar y\u00fczde 9.0\u2019a yak\u0131n de\u011fer kaybetti. Di\u011fer bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkenin para birimi dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Ancak ayn\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 7.30 seviyelerine kadar y\u00fckselerek y\u00fczde 6.0 daha de\u011fer kaybetti. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>SON S\u00d6Z <\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019na yeniden g\u00fcven ve itibar kazand\u0131rmak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lacaklar belli. \u0130ktisat bilimi bu konuda yol g\u00f6sterici. Uygulamak bize kalm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"abd-dolari-zayifliyor","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131yor","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1066,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":22773,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":22674,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131yor","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi ve i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 i\u00e7in T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011feri, istikrar\u0131 ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir olmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011feri denilince ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011feri izleniyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n seyri de T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 i\u00e7in belirleyici oluyor. Bunlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda dolar ve T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin beklentileri de\u011ferlendirelim. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>1.<\/strong> <strong>ABD DOLARI UZUN S\u00dcRE DE\u011eERL\u0130 KALDI<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> ABD dolar\u0131, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli rezerv para birimi olarak sadece ABD taraf\u0131ndan de\u011fil, t\u00fcm \u00fclkeler taraf\u0131ndan kullan\u0131l\u0131yor. Bug\u00fcn ABD ekonomisine en b\u00fcy\u00fck rakip \u00fclke olan \u00c7in, ayn\u0131 zamanda elinde ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda en \u00e7ok dolar likiditesi tutan \u00fclke. Dolar, yak\u0131n gelecekte en \u00f6nemli rezerv para olma i\u015flevini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. ABD dolar\u0131, Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015fkanl\u0131k d\u00f6neminde di\u011fer para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha de\u011ferli oldu. Dolar\u0131 daha de\u011ferli yapan, k\u0131smen ABD ekonomisindeki toparlanma iken daha \u00e7ok k\u00fcresel siyasi ve jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler oldu. 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren ba\u015flayan k\u00fcresel ticarette korumac\u0131l\u0131k, ABD-\u00c7in gerginli\u011fi ve jeopolitik riskler ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6neminde de dolar en \u00f6nemli g\u00fcvenli liman i\u015flevi ile daha da de\u011fer kazand\u0131. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>2. ABD DOLARI ZAYIFLAMAYA BA\u015eLADI <\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> ABD dolar\u0131 haziran ay\u0131ndan itibaren zay\u0131flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Zay\u0131flaman\u0131n nedeni, ekonomideki geli\u015fmeler veya rezerv para olarak di\u011fer para birimlerine ge\u00e7i\u015f de\u011fil. Dijital ve kripto para birimleri de dolar ile fiyatland\u0131klar\u0131 s\u00fcrece ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferini etkileyemeyecek. Dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n nedeni, ABD siyasetindeki belirsizliktir. Buna, mevcut y\u00f6netimin Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 ile m\u00fccadeledeki ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da dahildir. ABD\u2019de Trump ile devam edilmesi halinde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez bir d\u00fcnya endi\u015fe yarat\u0131yor. Biden\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7ilmesi halinde bunun dolar \u00fczerinde nas\u0131l bir etki yarataca\u011f\u0131 da belirsizdir. Ancak dolara esas de\u011fer kaybettiren, Trump\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7imlerin iptali talebi ve se\u00e7imlerin yap\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n me\u015fru olmayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 oldu. ABD, tarihinde ilk kez se\u00e7imlerin iptali ya da sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n iptali ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabilecek. K\u00fcresel alanda bu riski almak istemeyenler de dolardan ka\u00e7maya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu nedenle dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>3. ABD SE\u00c7\u0130MLER\u0130NE KADAR ABD DOLARINA NE OLUR? <\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> ABD se\u00e7imlerine kadar olan d\u00f6nemde ABD dolar\u0131 zay\u0131f kalmaya ve zay\u0131flamaya devam edecek. Euro-dolar paritesi 1.15 seviyesini a\u015farak 1.18 seviyelerine kadar ula\u015ft\u0131. Pariteyi AB taraf\u0131nda etkileyecek \u00e7ok fazla unsur kalmad\u0131. Pariteyi daha \u00e7ok ABD\u2019de se\u00e7ime kadar olan d\u00f6nemdeki siyasi geli\u015fmeler belirleyecek. Ekonomik olarak da dolar \u00fczerinde kuvvetli etki yaratacak bir unsur kalmad\u0131. Fed, se\u00e7imlerden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak geni\u015fletici para politikas\u0131na uzun s\u00fcre devam edece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Parite, se\u00e7ime kadar 1.16-1.18 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda seyredecek. Se\u00e7imlerin iptaline y\u00f6nelik giri\u015fimler vb. halinde ise Euro-dolar paritesi 1.20 seviyesini a\u015facak. Se\u00e7imlerin yap\u0131lmas\u0131, Trump ve Biden\u2019\u0131n kazanmalar\u0131 halinde ABD dolar\u0131na ili\u015fkin halen fiyatlamalar ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Bunun nedeni ise her ikisi i\u00e7in de ekonomiye ili\u015fkin olarak ta\u015f\u0131nan endi\u015felerdir. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>4. ABD DOLARI ZAYIFLARKEN T\u00dcRK L\u0130RASI NEDEN DE\u011eER KAYBED\u0130YOR? <\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011feri dolar endeksi ile izleniyor. Bu endeks 1973 y\u0131l\u0131nda ba\u015flad\u0131. Dolar\u0131n 6 geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke para birimi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki sepet de\u011feri \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Dolar endeksi 1973 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in 100 kabul edildi. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 etkisi ile g\u00fcvenli liman dolar de\u011fer kazand\u0131 ve endeks 102 seviyesine kadar y\u00fckseldi. Daha sonraki s\u00fcre\u00e7te ise dolar endeksi 93 puana kadar indi ve dolar y\u00fczde 9.0\u2019a yak\u0131n de\u011fer kaybetti. Di\u011fer bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkenin para birimi dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Ancak ayn\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 7.30 seviyelerine kadar y\u00fckselerek y\u00fczde 6.0 daha de\u011fer kaybetti. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>SON S\u00d6Z <\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019na yeniden g\u00fcven ve itibar kazand\u0131rmak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lacaklar belli. \u0130ktisat bilimi bu konuda yol g\u00f6sterici. Uygulamak bize kalm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"abd-dolari-zayifliyor","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131yor","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1066,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}