{"status":true,"post":{"id":31425,"user_id":2,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 16:50:44","created_at":"2022-02-24T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T13:50:44.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":31425,"is_featured":0,"title":"ABD-\u00c7in \u00e7eki\u015fmesinde sava\u015f senaryolar\u0131","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>FAT\u0130H OKTAY<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Graham Allison\u2019un s\u0131k s\u00f6z\u00fc edilen tarihte egemenlik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 ele alan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na g\u00f6re, son 500 y\u0131lda d\u00fcnyada yeni bir g\u00fcc\u00fcn y\u00fckselerek egemen g\u00fcce yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 16 durumun 12\u2019sinde sonu\u00e7 sava\u015f olmu\u015ftu. B\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerin ayn\u0131 zamanda n\u00fckleer g\u00fc\u00e7ler olmas\u0131, g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 s\u0131cak sava\u015flar\u0131n ba\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rsa da d\u00fcnya so\u011fuk sava\u015flara, gizli sava\u015flara, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 s\u0131cak sava\u015flara a\u00e7\u0131k durumda. B\u00f6yle sava\u015flar\u0131n da insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n sonunu getirecek b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sava\u015fa kap\u0131 a\u00e7ma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 var.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 sonras\u0131nda Trump y\u00f6netiminin politikalar\u0131na, \u00c7in\u2019i ekonomik, teknolojik, politik olarak d\u0131\u015flamaya, yaln\u0131z b\u0131rakmaya, \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 bir k\u00fcresel cephe olu\u015fturmaya y\u00f6nelik bir \u2018so\u011fuk sava\u015f\u2019 yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 hakim olmu\u015ftu. Biden d\u00f6neminde \u00c7in\u2019in ekonomik ve teknolojik geli\u015fimini yava\u015flatmaya y\u00f6nelik \u00e7abalar s\u00fcrse de so\u011fuk sava\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131ndan uzakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Ancak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda \u00fclkede Trump veya bir benzerinin ba\u015fkan olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 giderek art\u0131yor. Bu, bir durumda ABD-\u00c7in so\u011fuk sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00fcndemde olmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Biden y\u00f6netiminin de mevcut \u00e7abalar\u0131 ile \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fini \u00f6nlemekte ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olamazsa bir so\u011fuk sava\u015f ortam\u0131na y\u00f6nelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bulunuyor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>SATIN ALMA G\u00dcC\u00dc PAR\u0130TES\u0130<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Birinci So\u011fuk Sava\u015f, \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f, 40 y\u0131l kadar sonra 1991\u2019de Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131 ve ABD\u2019nin galibiyeti ile sonu\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak olas\u0131 yeni bir so\u011fuk sava\u015fta durum \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 olacak. Sovyetler Birli\u011fi ekonomisi, ABD\u2019ninkinin iki veya \u00fc\u00e7te biri b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeydi; \u00fclkenin \u00f6zellikle askeri olmayan teknolojisi ABD\u2019nin gerisindeydi, \u00fclke bilgi teknolojileri alan\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin \u00e7ok gerisinde kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde askeri harcamalar\u0131n ekonomiye y\u00fck\u00fc \u00f6nemli rol oynam\u0131\u015ft\u0131; \u00fclkenin yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma kapasitesi hem askeri harcamalar hem ekonomik geli\u015fme i\u00e7in gerekli sivil yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamaya yetmemi\u015fti. \u00c7in ise sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesiyle ABD\u2019ninkinden b\u00fcy\u00fck ve \u00e7ok daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir ekonomiye sahip; belli alanlarda d\u0131\u015fa ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olsa da teknolojide ABD\u2019nin \u00e7ok gerisinde de\u011fil, bilgi teknolojilerinin belli alanlar\u0131nda ise bir miktar \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulunuyor. Bunlardan da \u00f6nemlisi \u00c7in\u2019in ABD\u2019nin birka\u00e7 kat\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma kapasitesine sahip olmas\u0131, ge\u00e7en so\u011fuk sava\u015fta rakibini zorlayan yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma kapasitesinin bu sefer ABD\u2019yi zorlayacak olmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu durumda ilkinden 40 y\u0131lda galip \u00e7\u0131kan ABD\u2019nin bu so\u011fuk sava\u015fta \u015fans\u0131 \u00e7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>RUSYA \u0130LE \u0130\u015eB\u0130RL\u0130\u011e\u0130 OLASILI\u011eI<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131nda bir k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 s\u0131cak sava\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da bulunuyor. G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi, Tayvan, b\u00f6yle bir sava\u015f k\u0131v\u0131lc\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7akabilece\u011fi b\u00f6lgeler. \u00c7in\u2019in ABD ile k\u00fcresel bir sava\u015fta de\u011fil ama yak\u0131nlar\u0131ndaki bir sava\u015fta ba\u015f etme g\u00fcc\u00fc bulunuyor. \u00c7in, b\u00f6yle bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada ABD\u2019nin uzakta sava\u015fma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn dayanaklar\u0131 olan uydular\u0131 ve u\u00e7ak gemilerini i\u015flev d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakacak teknoloji ve silahlara yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131yor. ABD\u2019nin haberle\u015fme, konum belirleme (GPS) ve bilgi toplama uydular\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 kullan\u0131labilecek silahlar\u0131 geli\u015ftiriyor. U\u00e7ak gemilerine kar\u015f\u0131 geli\u015ftirdi\u011fi \u2018u\u00e7ak gemisi katili\u2019 olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan \u00f6zel balistik f\u00fczelere sahip bulunuyor. Sesin 10 kat\u0131na ula\u015fan h\u0131zlarda u\u00e7an, manevra kabiliyeti olan, savunma sistemlerinin kolay ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hipersonik f\u00fcze teknolojisinde \u00c7in (ve Rusya), ABD\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcnde yer al\u0131yor. Bu verilerle yap\u0131lan sava\u015f sim\u00fclasyonlar\u0131nda ABD ile b\u00f6lgesel bir sava\u015f\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019in kazanabilece\u011fi sonucu \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. B\u00f6yle bir sava\u015fta kaybederse ABD\u2019nin, \u00c7in\u2019in enerji ve mal ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 rotalar\u0131n\u0131 keserek cevap vermesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Rusya ile i\u015fbirli\u011fi b\u00f6yle bir durumda \u00c7in i\u00e7in ya\u015famsal \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. \u00c7in i\u00e7in bir so\u011fuk sava\u015f halinde de Rusya\u2019n\u0131n i\u015fbirli\u011fi ayn\u0131 derecede ya\u015famsal \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Rusya ve ABD aras\u0131nda da ekonomik ve teknolojik alanda de\u011fil ama askeri alanda bir b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eki\u015fmesi ya\u015fan\u0131yor. ABD, dev ekonomisi ve pazar\u0131n\u0131n vazge\u00e7ilmezli\u011fi nedeniyle d\u00fcnyada \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 bir cephe olu\u015fturmakta zorlan\u0131r ama bunu Rusya\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 yapabilir. \u00c7in, Rusya\u2019y\u0131 bu durumda yaln\u0131z b\u0131rakamaz ama olu\u015fan bir cephenin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda durmak da do\u011fru bir stratejik hamle olmaz. Bakal\u0131m bu satran\u00e7 ve Go kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131 oyun nas\u0131l geli\u015fecek.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"abd-cin-cekismesinde-savas-senaryolari","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"ABD-\u00c7in \u00e7eki\u015fmesinde sava\u015f senaryolar\u0131","meta_description":"FAT\u0130H OKTAY","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1080,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":2,"name":"FAT\u0130H","surname":"OKTAY","email":"ozansoy.tuna@akay.com","slug":"fatih-oktay","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600qSRn7kb3ZZVHU3t.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T14:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":31524,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":31425,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"ABD-\u00c7in \u00e7eki\u015fmesinde sava\u015f senaryolar\u0131","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>FAT\u0130H OKTAY<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Graham Allison\u2019un s\u0131k s\u00f6z\u00fc edilen tarihte egemenlik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 ele alan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na g\u00f6re, son 500 y\u0131lda d\u00fcnyada yeni bir g\u00fcc\u00fcn y\u00fckselerek egemen g\u00fcce yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 16 durumun 12\u2019sinde sonu\u00e7 sava\u015f olmu\u015ftu. B\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerin ayn\u0131 zamanda n\u00fckleer g\u00fc\u00e7ler olmas\u0131, g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 s\u0131cak sava\u015flar\u0131n ba\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rsa da d\u00fcnya so\u011fuk sava\u015flara, gizli sava\u015flara, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 s\u0131cak sava\u015flara a\u00e7\u0131k durumda. B\u00f6yle sava\u015flar\u0131n da insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n sonunu getirecek b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sava\u015fa kap\u0131 a\u00e7ma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 var.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 sonras\u0131nda Trump y\u00f6netiminin politikalar\u0131na, \u00c7in\u2019i ekonomik, teknolojik, politik olarak d\u0131\u015flamaya, yaln\u0131z b\u0131rakmaya, \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 bir k\u00fcresel cephe olu\u015fturmaya y\u00f6nelik bir \u2018so\u011fuk sava\u015f\u2019 yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 hakim olmu\u015ftu. Biden d\u00f6neminde \u00c7in\u2019in ekonomik ve teknolojik geli\u015fimini yava\u015flatmaya y\u00f6nelik \u00e7abalar s\u00fcrse de so\u011fuk sava\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131ndan uzakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Ancak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda \u00fclkede Trump veya bir benzerinin ba\u015fkan olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 giderek art\u0131yor. Bu, bir durumda ABD-\u00c7in so\u011fuk sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00fcndemde olmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Biden y\u00f6netiminin de mevcut \u00e7abalar\u0131 ile \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fini \u00f6nlemekte ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olamazsa bir so\u011fuk sava\u015f ortam\u0131na y\u00f6nelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bulunuyor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>SATIN ALMA G\u00dcC\u00dc PAR\u0130TES\u0130<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Birinci So\u011fuk Sava\u015f, \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f, 40 y\u0131l kadar sonra 1991\u2019de Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131 ve ABD\u2019nin galibiyeti ile sonu\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak olas\u0131 yeni bir so\u011fuk sava\u015fta durum \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 olacak. Sovyetler Birli\u011fi ekonomisi, ABD\u2019ninkinin iki veya \u00fc\u00e7te biri b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeydi; \u00fclkenin \u00f6zellikle askeri olmayan teknolojisi ABD\u2019nin gerisindeydi, \u00fclke bilgi teknolojileri alan\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin \u00e7ok gerisinde kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde askeri harcamalar\u0131n ekonomiye y\u00fck\u00fc \u00f6nemli rol oynam\u0131\u015ft\u0131; \u00fclkenin yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma kapasitesi hem askeri harcamalar hem ekonomik geli\u015fme i\u00e7in gerekli sivil yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamaya yetmemi\u015fti. \u00c7in ise sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesiyle ABD\u2019ninkinden b\u00fcy\u00fck ve \u00e7ok daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir ekonomiye sahip; belli alanlarda d\u0131\u015fa ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olsa da teknolojide ABD\u2019nin \u00e7ok gerisinde de\u011fil, bilgi teknolojilerinin belli alanlar\u0131nda ise bir miktar \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulunuyor. Bunlardan da \u00f6nemlisi \u00c7in\u2019in ABD\u2019nin birka\u00e7 kat\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma kapasitesine sahip olmas\u0131, ge\u00e7en so\u011fuk sava\u015fta rakibini zorlayan yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma kapasitesinin bu sefer ABD\u2019yi zorlayacak olmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu durumda ilkinden 40 y\u0131lda galip \u00e7\u0131kan ABD\u2019nin bu so\u011fuk sava\u015fta \u015fans\u0131 \u00e7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>RUSYA \u0130LE \u0130\u015eB\u0130RL\u0130\u011e\u0130 OLASILI\u011eI<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131nda bir k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 s\u0131cak sava\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da bulunuyor. G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi, Tayvan, b\u00f6yle bir sava\u015f k\u0131v\u0131lc\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7akabilece\u011fi b\u00f6lgeler. \u00c7in\u2019in ABD ile k\u00fcresel bir sava\u015fta de\u011fil ama yak\u0131nlar\u0131ndaki bir sava\u015fta ba\u015f etme g\u00fcc\u00fc bulunuyor. \u00c7in, b\u00f6yle bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada ABD\u2019nin uzakta sava\u015fma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn dayanaklar\u0131 olan uydular\u0131 ve u\u00e7ak gemilerini i\u015flev d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakacak teknoloji ve silahlara yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131yor. ABD\u2019nin haberle\u015fme, konum belirleme (GPS) ve bilgi toplama uydular\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 kullan\u0131labilecek silahlar\u0131 geli\u015ftiriyor. U\u00e7ak gemilerine kar\u015f\u0131 geli\u015ftirdi\u011fi \u2018u\u00e7ak gemisi katili\u2019 olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan \u00f6zel balistik f\u00fczelere sahip bulunuyor. Sesin 10 kat\u0131na ula\u015fan h\u0131zlarda u\u00e7an, manevra kabiliyeti olan, savunma sistemlerinin kolay ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hipersonik f\u00fcze teknolojisinde \u00c7in (ve Rusya), ABD\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcnde yer al\u0131yor. Bu verilerle yap\u0131lan sava\u015f sim\u00fclasyonlar\u0131nda ABD ile b\u00f6lgesel bir sava\u015f\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019in kazanabilece\u011fi sonucu \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. B\u00f6yle bir sava\u015fta kaybederse ABD\u2019nin, \u00c7in\u2019in enerji ve mal ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 rotalar\u0131n\u0131 keserek cevap vermesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Rusya ile i\u015fbirli\u011fi b\u00f6yle bir durumda \u00c7in i\u00e7in ya\u015famsal \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. \u00c7in i\u00e7in bir so\u011fuk sava\u015f halinde de Rusya\u2019n\u0131n i\u015fbirli\u011fi ayn\u0131 derecede ya\u015famsal \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Rusya ve ABD aras\u0131nda da ekonomik ve teknolojik alanda de\u011fil ama askeri alanda bir b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eki\u015fmesi ya\u015fan\u0131yor. ABD, dev ekonomisi ve pazar\u0131n\u0131n vazge\u00e7ilmezli\u011fi nedeniyle d\u00fcnyada \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 bir cephe olu\u015fturmakta zorlan\u0131r ama bunu Rusya\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 yapabilir. \u00c7in, Rusya\u2019y\u0131 bu durumda yaln\u0131z b\u0131rakamaz ama olu\u015fan bir cephenin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda durmak da do\u011fru bir stratejik hamle olmaz. Bakal\u0131m bu satran\u00e7 ve Go kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131 oyun nas\u0131l geli\u015fecek.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"abd-cin-cekismesinde-savas-senaryolari","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"ABD-\u00c7in \u00e7eki\u015fmesinde sava\u015f senaryolar\u0131","meta_description":"FAT\u0130H OKTAY","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1080,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}