{"status":true,"post":{"id":21445,"user_id":2,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:08:00","created_at":"2020-01-30T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:08:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":21445,"is_featured":0,"title":"ABD-\u00c7in anla\u015fmas\u0131, nihayet\u2026","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>Fatih Oktay<\/strong><\/span><br><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">ABD-\u00c7in \u2018birinci a\u015fama\u2019 anla\u015fmas\u0131 nihayet 15 Ocak\u2019ta imzaland\u0131. Anla\u015fma iki ay \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131m\u0131zda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenleri aynen i\u00e7eriyor ama \u00c7in\u2019in ithalat taahh\u00fctleri \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fczden daha da ileriye gidiyor. \u00c7in, tar\u0131m mallar\u0131na ek olarak imalat sanayisi \u00fcr\u00fcnleri, enerji, hizmetlerde toplam ithalat\u0131n\u0131n 2017\u2019ye g\u00f6re 2020\u2019de 77 milyar, 2021\u2019de ise 123 milyar dolar daha fazla olmas\u0131n\u0131 taahh\u00fct ediyor. Neden 2017? \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc 2017, \u00c7in\u2019in ABD\u2019den ithalat\u0131n\u0131n en y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu y\u0131l. ABD verilerine g\u00f6re \u00c7in\u2019in ABD\u2019den toplam ithalat tutar\u0131 2017\u2019de 190 milyar dolard\u0131, bu y\u0131l ise 170 milyar dolar olacak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla anla\u015fmaya g\u00f6re \u00c7in\u2019in ABD\u2019den ithalat\u0131 yuvarlak rakamlarla 2020\u2019de 270, 2021\u2019de ise 310 milyar dolar olacak, yani 2020\u2019de y\u00fczde 60, 2021\u2019de de bunun \u00fcst\u00fcne y\u00fczde 15 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek. Bununla da kalm\u0131yor, \u00c7in ithalat ve g\u00fcmr\u00fck d\u00fczenleme ve uygulamalar\u0131nda ABD\u2019den ithalat\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131racak \u00e7ok say\u0131da d\u00fczenleme yapmay\u0131 taahh\u00fct ediyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bunun kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda anla\u015fmada ABD\u2019nin di\u015fe gelir hi\u00e7bir taahh\u00fcd\u00fc bulunmuyor; taahh\u00fctler daha \u00e7ok mevcut uygulamalar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bulunuyor. Bunun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda da \u2018kokulu \u00c7in armudunun ithalat\u0131na izin verme s\u00fcrecini ba\u015flatmak\u2019 gibi \u00f6nemsiz taahh\u00fctler var. Anla\u015fman\u0131n i\u00e7inde olmayan ancak bu anla\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi bilinen, aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda 160 milyar dolarl\u0131k \u00c7in mal\u0131na y\u00fczde 15 ek vergi getirilme plan\u0131n\u0131n uygulamaya al\u0131nmamas\u0131 ise \u00c7in\u2019den \u00e7ok ABD ekonomisine yarayacak. Daha \u00f6nce belirtti\u011fimiz gibi \u00c7in bu mallarda ithalat\u0131n\u0131n en az y\u00fczde 75\u2019ini kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan ek vergi ABD ekonomisini zorlayacakt\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Sonu\u00e7 olarak bu, bir taraf\u0131n \u00e7ok \u015fey verdi\u011fi di\u011ferinin pek bir \u015fey vermedi\u011fi, son derece e\u015fitsiz bir anla\u015fma. B\u00f6yle bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 imzalamak \u00c7in\u2019de y\u00f6netim i\u00e7in politik olarak da zorlay\u0131c\u0131 bir karar. O zaman \u00c7in bu anla\u015fmay\u0131 neden imzalad\u0131?<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu anla\u015fma \u00c7in\u2019e ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerine kadar bir nefes alma f\u0131rsat\u0131 sa\u011flar; taahh\u00fctler ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse \u00f6zellikle k\u0131rsal kesim se\u00e7menini memnun edece\u011finden Trump y\u00f6netimi bu kesimin deste\u011fini tehlikeye atmamak i\u00e7in \u00c7in\u2019e yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131nda daha tedbirli bir tutum benimser. Gerginliklerin azalmas\u0131 i\u00e7eride de yat\u0131r\u0131m ortam\u0131n\u0131 iyile\u015ftirerek \u00c7in ekonomisine katk\u0131 sa\u011flar. Ama bu etkiler ge\u00e7ici olur, se\u00e7im sonras\u0131nda kim se\u00e7ilirse se\u00e7ilsin ili\u015fkiler gerginle\u015fir. \u00c7in\u2019in bu anla\u015fmay\u0131 imzalamas\u0131nda b\u00f6yle ge\u00e7ici bir rahatlaman\u0131n pay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olsa gerek.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">G\u00f6zetilen bir di\u011fer etken bu anla\u015fman\u0131n, uygulan\u0131rsa ABD ekonomisinin \u00c7in\u2019e ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131racak olmas\u0131 olabilir. Anla\u015fmadaki al\u0131m taahh\u00fctleri 2021 sonunda \u00c7in\u2019i ABD\u2019nin \u015fu andaki ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat pazar\u0131 Meksika\u2019ya yak\u0131n ithalat yapar konuma getirecek. B\u00f6yle s\u00fcrerse \u00c7in ABD\u2019nin bir numaral\u0131 ihracat pazar\u0131 olmaya do\u011fru gidecek. Bu da ABD ekonomisini \u00c7in ekonomisinin sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bu \u00fclke y\u00f6netiminin ticaret politikalar\u0131na daha hassas duruma getirir, ABD y\u00f6netiminin \u00c7in politikalar\u0131nda daha dikkatli olmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar. Bu da \u00c7in taraf\u0131n\u0131n bu anla\u015fmay\u0131 imzalama karar\u0131na etki yapm\u0131\u015f olabilir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">San\u0131lan\u0131n aksine, mevcut azil s\u00fcreci sonucunda veya bu y\u0131lki se\u00e7imlerde Trump\u2019\u0131n yerini bir ba\u015fkas\u0131na b\u0131rakmas\u0131 \u00c7in y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in istendik bir sonu\u00e7 olmayabilir. Bir\u00e7ok yorumcuya g\u00f6re Trump, \u00e7ok ses getirse de ABD\u2019nin yumu\u015fak g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc zedelemeleri ve \u00c7in konusunda m\u00fcttefikler ile i\u015fbirli\u011fi yapmak yerine onlarla da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma yaratmalar\u0131 nedeniyle orta-uzun vadede etkisiz, hatta ABD i\u00e7in zararl\u0131 politikalar izliyor. Son yaz\u0131m\u0131zda belirtti\u011fimiz gibi bu nedenle Trump\u2019\u0131 kendisi i\u00e7in k\u00f6t\u00fcler aras\u0131nda en iyisi olarak de\u011ferlendiriyor olmas\u0131, onun se\u00e7ilme sans\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmek istiyor olmas\u0131 \u00c7in taraf\u0131n\u0131n bu anla\u015fmay\u0131 imzalamas\u0131nda en \u00f6nemli etken olabilir.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"abd-cin-anlasmasi-nihayet","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"ABD-\u00c7in anla\u015fmas\u0131, nihayet\u2026","meta_description":"Fatih Oktay","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1067,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":2,"name":"FAT\u0130H","surname":"OKTAY","email":"ozansoy.tuna@akay.com","slug":"fatih-oktay","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600qSRn7kb3ZZVHU3t.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T14:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":21544,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":21445,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"ABD-\u00c7in anla\u015fmas\u0131, nihayet\u2026","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>Fatih Oktay<\/strong><\/span><br><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">ABD-\u00c7in \u2018birinci a\u015fama\u2019 anla\u015fmas\u0131 nihayet 15 Ocak\u2019ta imzaland\u0131. Anla\u015fma iki ay \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131m\u0131zda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenleri aynen i\u00e7eriyor ama \u00c7in\u2019in ithalat taahh\u00fctleri \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fczden daha da ileriye gidiyor. \u00c7in, tar\u0131m mallar\u0131na ek olarak imalat sanayisi \u00fcr\u00fcnleri, enerji, hizmetlerde toplam ithalat\u0131n\u0131n 2017\u2019ye g\u00f6re 2020\u2019de 77 milyar, 2021\u2019de ise 123 milyar dolar daha fazla olmas\u0131n\u0131 taahh\u00fct ediyor. Neden 2017? \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc 2017, \u00c7in\u2019in ABD\u2019den ithalat\u0131n\u0131n en y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu y\u0131l. ABD verilerine g\u00f6re \u00c7in\u2019in ABD\u2019den toplam ithalat tutar\u0131 2017\u2019de 190 milyar dolard\u0131, bu y\u0131l ise 170 milyar dolar olacak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla anla\u015fmaya g\u00f6re \u00c7in\u2019in ABD\u2019den ithalat\u0131 yuvarlak rakamlarla 2020\u2019de 270, 2021\u2019de ise 310 milyar dolar olacak, yani 2020\u2019de y\u00fczde 60, 2021\u2019de de bunun \u00fcst\u00fcne y\u00fczde 15 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek. Bununla da kalm\u0131yor, \u00c7in ithalat ve g\u00fcmr\u00fck d\u00fczenleme ve uygulamalar\u0131nda ABD\u2019den ithalat\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131racak \u00e7ok say\u0131da d\u00fczenleme yapmay\u0131 taahh\u00fct ediyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bunun kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda anla\u015fmada ABD\u2019nin di\u015fe gelir hi\u00e7bir taahh\u00fcd\u00fc bulunmuyor; taahh\u00fctler daha \u00e7ok mevcut uygulamalar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bulunuyor. Bunun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda da \u2018kokulu \u00c7in armudunun ithalat\u0131na izin verme s\u00fcrecini ba\u015flatmak\u2019 gibi \u00f6nemsiz taahh\u00fctler var. Anla\u015fman\u0131n i\u00e7inde olmayan ancak bu anla\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi bilinen, aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda 160 milyar dolarl\u0131k \u00c7in mal\u0131na y\u00fczde 15 ek vergi getirilme plan\u0131n\u0131n uygulamaya al\u0131nmamas\u0131 ise \u00c7in\u2019den \u00e7ok ABD ekonomisine yarayacak. Daha \u00f6nce belirtti\u011fimiz gibi \u00c7in bu mallarda ithalat\u0131n\u0131n en az y\u00fczde 75\u2019ini kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan ek vergi ABD ekonomisini zorlayacakt\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Sonu\u00e7 olarak bu, bir taraf\u0131n \u00e7ok \u015fey verdi\u011fi di\u011ferinin pek bir \u015fey vermedi\u011fi, son derece e\u015fitsiz bir anla\u015fma. B\u00f6yle bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 imzalamak \u00c7in\u2019de y\u00f6netim i\u00e7in politik olarak da zorlay\u0131c\u0131 bir karar. O zaman \u00c7in bu anla\u015fmay\u0131 neden imzalad\u0131?<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu anla\u015fma \u00c7in\u2019e ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerine kadar bir nefes alma f\u0131rsat\u0131 sa\u011flar; taahh\u00fctler ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse \u00f6zellikle k\u0131rsal kesim se\u00e7menini memnun edece\u011finden Trump y\u00f6netimi bu kesimin deste\u011fini tehlikeye atmamak i\u00e7in \u00c7in\u2019e yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131nda daha tedbirli bir tutum benimser. Gerginliklerin azalmas\u0131 i\u00e7eride de yat\u0131r\u0131m ortam\u0131n\u0131 iyile\u015ftirerek \u00c7in ekonomisine katk\u0131 sa\u011flar. Ama bu etkiler ge\u00e7ici olur, se\u00e7im sonras\u0131nda kim se\u00e7ilirse se\u00e7ilsin ili\u015fkiler gerginle\u015fir. \u00c7in\u2019in bu anla\u015fmay\u0131 imzalamas\u0131nda b\u00f6yle ge\u00e7ici bir rahatlaman\u0131n pay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olsa gerek.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">G\u00f6zetilen bir di\u011fer etken bu anla\u015fman\u0131n, uygulan\u0131rsa ABD ekonomisinin \u00c7in\u2019e ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131racak olmas\u0131 olabilir. Anla\u015fmadaki al\u0131m taahh\u00fctleri 2021 sonunda \u00c7in\u2019i ABD\u2019nin \u015fu andaki ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat pazar\u0131 Meksika\u2019ya yak\u0131n ithalat yapar konuma getirecek. B\u00f6yle s\u00fcrerse \u00c7in ABD\u2019nin bir numaral\u0131 ihracat pazar\u0131 olmaya do\u011fru gidecek. Bu da ABD ekonomisini \u00c7in ekonomisinin sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bu \u00fclke y\u00f6netiminin ticaret politikalar\u0131na daha hassas duruma getirir, ABD y\u00f6netiminin \u00c7in politikalar\u0131nda daha dikkatli olmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar. Bu da \u00c7in taraf\u0131n\u0131n bu anla\u015fmay\u0131 imzalama karar\u0131na etki yapm\u0131\u015f olabilir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">San\u0131lan\u0131n aksine, mevcut azil s\u00fcreci sonucunda veya bu y\u0131lki se\u00e7imlerde Trump\u2019\u0131n yerini bir ba\u015fkas\u0131na b\u0131rakmas\u0131 \u00c7in y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in istendik bir sonu\u00e7 olmayabilir. Bir\u00e7ok yorumcuya g\u00f6re Trump, \u00e7ok ses getirse de ABD\u2019nin yumu\u015fak g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc zedelemeleri ve \u00c7in konusunda m\u00fcttefikler ile i\u015fbirli\u011fi yapmak yerine onlarla da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma yaratmalar\u0131 nedeniyle orta-uzun vadede etkisiz, hatta ABD i\u00e7in zararl\u0131 politikalar izliyor. Son yaz\u0131m\u0131zda belirtti\u011fimiz gibi bu nedenle Trump\u2019\u0131 kendisi i\u00e7in k\u00f6t\u00fcler aras\u0131nda en iyisi olarak de\u011ferlendiriyor olmas\u0131, onun se\u00e7ilme sans\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmek istiyor olmas\u0131 \u00c7in taraf\u0131n\u0131n bu anla\u015fmay\u0131 imzalamas\u0131nda en \u00f6nemli etken olabilir.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"abd-cin-anlasmasi-nihayet","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"ABD-\u00c7in anla\u015fmas\u0131, nihayet\u2026","meta_description":"Fatih Oktay","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1067,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}