{"status":true,"post":{"id":23253,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:26:34","created_at":"2020-10-15T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:26:34.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":23253,"is_featured":0,"title":"3. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 5","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu (T\u00dc\u0130K) taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan a\u011fustos ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretimi, beklentilerin \u00fczerinde bir performansla, y\u0131l\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyre\u011finde T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin en az y\u00fczde 5 ve \u00fczeri bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 yakalam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 10.4\u2019l\u00fck art\u0131\u015f\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi sanayi \u00fcretiminde Ekonomik \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi ve Kalk\u0131nma \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (OECD) \u00fcyesi \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda 1., d\u00fcnya genelinde 2. s\u0131raya ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatan Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 Berat Albayrak, perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacminde yine a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda yakalanan y\u00fczde 5.8, sekt\u00f6rel ciro endeksindeki y\u00fczde 23.5\u2019lik art\u0131\u015fla, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u2018yeni nesil milli ekonomi\u2019 in\u015fas\u0131n\u0131n devam etti\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.<\/span>
<\/span>
C\u0130RO PERFORMANS ANAL\u0130Z\u0130<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki y\u00fczde 5.2\u2019lik daralmaya kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki y\u00fczde 29.4\u2019l\u00fck, in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki y\u00fczde 5.8\u2019lik ve ticaret sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki y\u00fczde 32.8\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f, k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnya ekonomisine verdi\u011fi a\u011f\u0131r zarar\u0131n bilan\u00e7osunun her \u00fclkede, her co\u011frafyada dikkatle takip edildi\u011fi bir konjonkt\u00fcrde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi pozitif ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran bir tablo. Bu tablo, ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ve istihdam\u0131 desteklemek amac\u0131yla ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kapsaml\u0131 tedbirlerin pozitif sonu\u00e7 verdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
Sekt\u00f6rlerin ve \u015firketlerin ciro performans\u0131 analiz edilirken, sadece y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyon de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda GSYH reel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 beklentisi de dikkate al\u0131n\u0131r. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in cirosunu ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 12.5 art\u0131rabilmi\u015f bir firma veya sekt\u00f6r, pandemiye ra\u011fmen 2019 cirosunu koruyabilmi\u015f demektir. Bu durumda, sanayi ve ticaret sekt\u00f6rlerinin y\u00fczde 12.5\u2019in 2, hatta 2.5 kat\u0131ndan bile fazla ciro art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 yakalam\u0131\u015f olmalar\u0131, bir tarafta \u015firketlerimizin, bir tarafta da seri ve aral\u0131ks\u0131z tedbirlerle firmalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n ayakta kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmaz ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r.<\/span>
<\/span>
YABANCILARIN \u0130LG\u0130S\u0130 ARTIYOR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Uluslararas\u0131 ekonomi ve finans haber kanal\u0131 Bloomberg\u2019in analizi, \u00c7in, Endonezya, Hindistan ve G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin ard\u0131ndan <\/span>2021 ve 2022\u2019de ekonomisi en h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanmas\u0131 beklenen 5. \u00fclkenin T\u00fcrkiye oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durumda, 3. \u00e7eyrekte T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin y\u00fczde 5 ile 6 aras\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme yakalamas\u0131, son \u00e7eyrekte hi\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fcme olmasa bile Bakan Albayrak\u2019\u0131n YEP a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda dile getirdi\u011fi y\u00fczde 0.3 y\u0131l sonu b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 beklentisini yakalaman\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir olas\u0131l\u0131k oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine kay\u0131ts\u0131z kalmayacak yabanc\u0131lar, 2 Ekim\u2019le biten hafta ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdikleri 600 milyon dolarl\u0131k al\u0131m gibi T\u00fcrk varl\u0131klar\u0131na olan ilgilerini giderek art\u0131rabilirler. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi\u2019nin \u00fcretim, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve ihracatta \u2018pozitif\u2019 ayr\u0131\u015fan hikayesi, 2021\u2019de cazibe merkezi olmam\u0131z\u0131 fazlas\u0131yla sa\u011flayacak.<\/span>
<\/span>
Dolar\u0131n gelece\u011fi ve ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
ABD, tarihinin en ilgin\u00e7 ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerinden birini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7ilmesi halinde, \u00c7in ve \u0130ran\u2019la gerginli\u011fi daha da t\u0131rmand\u0131raca\u011f\u0131; K\u00f6rfez\u2019de ve Ortado\u011fu\u2019da \u0130srail lehine b\u00f6lgesel dengeleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi; Rusya ve AB ile ini\u015fli \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fl\u0131 bir ili\u015fki setinin devam edece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/span>
<\/span>
Uzmanlar, b\u00f6yle bir tablonun ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n performans\u0131 ve de\u011feri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan hayli yorucu olaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda hemfikir.<\/span>
<\/span>
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Biden\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7ilmesi halinde, \u00c7in, \u0130ran ve Ortado\u011fu politikalar\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 sertlikte ve gerginli\u011fi daha da t\u0131rmand\u0131racak bir \u015fekilde y\u00f6netilmeyece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki kanaat hayli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Bu noktada, ABD-AB ili\u015fkilerine de yeni bir soluk getirilmesi kuvvetle muhtemel g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
Rusya konusu ise biraz daha kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k olacak gibi g\u00f6zlemleniyor. Bu nedenle k\u00fcresel ekonomi-politik sistem ad\u0131na daha az gerginlik \u00e7\u0131karacak; tersine tansiyonu bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde indirecek bir Biden\u2019\u0131n ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011feri ve performans\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha olumlu bir sonuca sebep olabilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
Hangi ba\u015fkan g\u00f6reve gelirse gelsin, ABD\u2019nin dolar\u0131, dolar cinsinden uluslararas\u0131 \u00f6demeler ve para transfer sistemini bir tehdit arac\u0131 olarak kullanmas\u0131, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n k\u00fcresel rezerv para olma \u00f6zelli\u011fini do\u011frudan tehdit eden en b\u00fcy\u00fck hata, ABD\u2019nin kendi topu\u011funa kur\u015fun s\u0131kmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu nedenle, ABD\u2019nin bu tutumunda \u0131srarc\u0131 olmas\u0131 halinde, dolar\u0131n gelece\u011finde Euro, renbinmi (yuan) ve alt\u0131n lehine merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n rezervlerinde \u00f6nemli pay kayb\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"3-ceyrek-buyume-yuzde-5","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"3. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 5","meta_description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1098,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":23352,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":23253,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"3. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 5","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu (T\u00dc\u0130K) taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan a\u011fustos ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretimi, beklentilerin \u00fczerinde bir performansla, y\u0131l\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyre\u011finde T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin en az y\u00fczde 5 ve \u00fczeri bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 yakalam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 10.4\u2019l\u00fck art\u0131\u015f\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi sanayi \u00fcretiminde Ekonomik \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi ve Kalk\u0131nma \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (OECD) \u00fcyesi \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda 1., d\u00fcnya genelinde 2. s\u0131raya ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatan Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 Berat Albayrak, perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacminde yine a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda yakalanan y\u00fczde 5.8, sekt\u00f6rel ciro endeksindeki y\u00fczde 23.5\u2019lik art\u0131\u015fla, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u2018yeni nesil milli ekonomi\u2019 in\u015fas\u0131n\u0131n devam etti\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.<\/span>
<\/span>
C\u0130RO PERFORMANS ANAL\u0130Z\u0130<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki y\u00fczde 5.2\u2019lik daralmaya kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki y\u00fczde 29.4\u2019l\u00fck, in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki y\u00fczde 5.8\u2019lik ve ticaret sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki y\u00fczde 32.8\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f, k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnya ekonomisine verdi\u011fi a\u011f\u0131r zarar\u0131n bilan\u00e7osunun her \u00fclkede, her co\u011frafyada dikkatle takip edildi\u011fi bir konjonkt\u00fcrde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi pozitif ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran bir tablo. Bu tablo, ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ve istihdam\u0131 desteklemek amac\u0131yla ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kapsaml\u0131 tedbirlerin pozitif sonu\u00e7 verdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
Sekt\u00f6rlerin ve \u015firketlerin ciro performans\u0131 analiz edilirken, sadece y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyon de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda GSYH reel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 beklentisi de dikkate al\u0131n\u0131r. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in cirosunu ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 12.5 art\u0131rabilmi\u015f bir firma veya sekt\u00f6r, pandemiye ra\u011fmen 2019 cirosunu koruyabilmi\u015f demektir. Bu durumda, sanayi ve ticaret sekt\u00f6rlerinin y\u00fczde 12.5\u2019in 2, hatta 2.5 kat\u0131ndan bile fazla ciro art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 yakalam\u0131\u015f olmalar\u0131, bir tarafta \u015firketlerimizin, bir tarafta da seri ve aral\u0131ks\u0131z tedbirlerle firmalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n ayakta kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmaz ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r.<\/span>
<\/span>
YABANCILARIN \u0130LG\u0130S\u0130 ARTIYOR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Uluslararas\u0131 ekonomi ve finans haber kanal\u0131 Bloomberg\u2019in analizi, \u00c7in, Endonezya, Hindistan ve G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin ard\u0131ndan <\/span>2021 ve 2022\u2019de ekonomisi en h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanmas\u0131 beklenen 5. \u00fclkenin T\u00fcrkiye oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durumda, 3. \u00e7eyrekte T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin y\u00fczde 5 ile 6 aras\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme yakalamas\u0131, son \u00e7eyrekte hi\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fcme olmasa bile Bakan Albayrak\u2019\u0131n YEP a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda dile getirdi\u011fi y\u00fczde 0.3 y\u0131l sonu b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 beklentisini yakalaman\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir olas\u0131l\u0131k oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine kay\u0131ts\u0131z kalmayacak yabanc\u0131lar, 2 Ekim\u2019le biten hafta ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdikleri 600 milyon dolarl\u0131k al\u0131m gibi T\u00fcrk varl\u0131klar\u0131na olan ilgilerini giderek art\u0131rabilirler. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi\u2019nin \u00fcretim, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve ihracatta \u2018pozitif\u2019 ayr\u0131\u015fan hikayesi, 2021\u2019de cazibe merkezi olmam\u0131z\u0131 fazlas\u0131yla sa\u011flayacak.<\/span>
<\/span>
Dolar\u0131n gelece\u011fi ve ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
ABD, tarihinin en ilgin\u00e7 ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerinden birini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7ilmesi halinde, \u00c7in ve \u0130ran\u2019la gerginli\u011fi daha da t\u0131rmand\u0131raca\u011f\u0131; K\u00f6rfez\u2019de ve Ortado\u011fu\u2019da \u0130srail lehine b\u00f6lgesel dengeleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi; Rusya ve AB ile ini\u015fli \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fl\u0131 bir ili\u015fki setinin devam edece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/span>
<\/span>
Uzmanlar, b\u00f6yle bir tablonun ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n performans\u0131 ve de\u011feri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan hayli yorucu olaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda hemfikir.<\/span>
<\/span>
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Biden\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7ilmesi halinde, \u00c7in, \u0130ran ve Ortado\u011fu politikalar\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 sertlikte ve gerginli\u011fi daha da t\u0131rmand\u0131racak bir \u015fekilde y\u00f6netilmeyece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki kanaat hayli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Bu noktada, ABD-AB ili\u015fkilerine de yeni bir soluk getirilmesi kuvvetle muhtemel g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
Rusya konusu ise biraz daha kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k olacak gibi g\u00f6zlemleniyor. Bu nedenle k\u00fcresel ekonomi-politik sistem ad\u0131na daha az gerginlik \u00e7\u0131karacak; tersine tansiyonu bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde indirecek bir Biden\u2019\u0131n ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011feri ve performans\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha olumlu bir sonuca sebep olabilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
Hangi ba\u015fkan g\u00f6reve gelirse gelsin, ABD\u2019nin dolar\u0131, dolar cinsinden uluslararas\u0131 \u00f6demeler ve para transfer sistemini bir tehdit arac\u0131 olarak kullanmas\u0131, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n k\u00fcresel rezerv para olma \u00f6zelli\u011fini do\u011frudan tehdit eden en b\u00fcy\u00fck hata, ABD\u2019nin kendi topu\u011funa kur\u015fun s\u0131kmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu nedenle, ABD\u2019nin bu tutumunda \u0131srarc\u0131 olmas\u0131 halinde, dolar\u0131n gelece\u011finde Euro, renbinmi (yuan) ve alt\u0131n lehine merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n rezervlerinde \u00f6nemli pay kayb\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"3-ceyrek-buyume-yuzde-5","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"3. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 5","meta_description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1098,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}