{"status":true,"post":{"id":12767,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 09:19:26","created_at":"2015-11-15T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T06:19:26.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":12767,"is_featured":0,"title":"3. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.6-2.8 \u00e7\u0131kabilir","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">2015 y\u0131l\u0131na girerken, kimi uluslararas\u0131 finans ve uluslararas\u0131 derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrk ekonomisine y\u00f6nelik b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri y\u00fczde 2'nin alt\u0131nda, hatta az da olsa y\u00fczde 0 veya daha da garibi negatifti. Yani, T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclece\u011fini iddia ediyorlard\u0131. B\u00f6lgesindeki t\u00fcm siyasi gerginliklere ve i\u00e7 sava\u015fa, \u00fclke i\u00e7erisinde kimi \u00e7evrelerce vah\u015fice y\u00f6netilen 'siyasi belirsizlik' alg\u0131s\u0131na ra\u011fmen, T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin akt\u00f6rleri, mal ve hizmet \u00fcretimindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u00fcrmesi ad\u0131na takdir edilmesi gereken bir \u00e7aba ortaya koyuyor. \u00d6yle ki, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve ticaret son 20-25 y\u0131l\u0131n en s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 d\u00f6neminden ge\u00e7iyor ve T\u00fcrk ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 var g\u00fcc\u00fcyle ihracat \u00e7abas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. T\u00fcrk reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ayakta kalma m\u00fccadelesine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, ekonomi bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 2.5, ikinci \u00e7eyrekte de y\u00fczde 3.8 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>SANAY\u0130 \u00dcRET\u0130M VER\u0130S\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u015eimdi, ilk iki \u00e7eyrek 'k\u00f6t\u00fcmser beklentileri teyit etmeyen verilere i\u015faret edince, de\u011fi\u015fik gerek\u00e7elerle, hatta az\u0131nl\u0131k bir k\u00fctle adeta k\u00f6t\u00fc \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 i\u00e7in neredeyse dua edecek; \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fin s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n ya da y\u00fczde 1'in biraz alt\u0131nda veya \u00e7ok az \u00fcst\u00fcnde bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 y\u0131ld\u0131r izledi\u011fim bir iptidai metotla yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m hesaplama, 3. \u00e7eyrekte GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 2.6 ile 2.8 aras\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu basit tahmin y\u00f6ntemiyle, 3. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminim, en k\u00f6t\u00fc 2.2; en iyi 3.8; y\u00fczde 70 olas\u0131l\u0131k ile 2.6 ile 2.8 aras\u0131 \u015fekillenecek gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn performans\u0131 ile ilgili ayl\u0131k bazda bir \u00f6n bilgimiz olmamas\u0131 nedeniyle, s\u00f6z konusu GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminimizi, ancak her ay a\u00e7\u0131klanan sanayi \u00fcretim verisi \u00fczerinden y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz bir tahminle hesap edebiliyoruz. Bu metotla, bu k\u00f6\u015feden 2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 3.9 diye payla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Y\u00fczde 3.8 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 0.1 puan yan\u0131lma iyi say\u0131l\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>TARIM VE PERAKENDE B\u00dcY\u00dcMEY\u0130 DESTEKLEYEB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>T\u00dc\u0130K<\/strong>, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re ya da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131, de\u011fi\u015fim oran\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131 takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f veriler ile yap\u0131yor. Biz de GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 tahminimizi takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f sanayi \u00fcretimi de\u011fi\u015fim oran\u0131 \u00fczerinden yap\u0131yoruz. 7 Haziran'dan 1 Kas\u0131m'a, siyasi gerginlik ve ter\u00f6r dolu bir 5.5-6 ay ge\u00e7irdik. Hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 olas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131y\u0131 \u00f6nceden, a\u00e7\u0131klanan ba\u015fka verilere bakarak \u00f6ng\u00f6rmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yoruz. Bununla birlikte, tar\u0131mda \u00fcretim 2014'e g\u00f6re daha iyi. Tar\u0131msal \u00fcretim, hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131y\u0131 dengeleyecek mi; 3. \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda anlam\u0131\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131z. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Temmuz ay\u0131ndan, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 sonuna, hayli gergin ge\u00e7en bir siyaset ve ter\u00f6r d\u00f6nemine ra\u011fmen, T\u00dc\u0130K'in hesaplad\u0131\u011f\u0131 veriler, perakende sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde sat\u0131\u015f hacminin, eyl\u00fclde ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 0.6, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda ise y\u00fczde 0.2 azal\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00dc\u0130K'in a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 veriler, mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f veriler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, 2015 performans\u0131n\u0131n 2014'\u00fcn \u00fczerinde gitti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Sadece takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f veri de ayn\u0131 tabloya i\u015faret ediyor. Mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f sabit fiyatlarla perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacmi ise y\u0131l\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 0.4 artm\u0131\u015f.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacmi ise bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 3.5 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015f. Mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f cari fiyatlarla perakende ciro hacminde ise y\u0131l\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 1.1 art\u0131\u015f kaydedilmi\u015f. Yukar\u0131da, 3. \u00e7eyrek sanayi \u00fcretimi \u00fczerinden yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerimi teyit etmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f perakende sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ciro hacmindeki bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 5.5 art\u0131\u015f anlaml\u0131. Bu art\u0131\u015fa bakarak, y\u00fczde 70 ihtimalle y\u00fczde 2.6 ile 2.8 aras\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm 3. \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi, daha da yukar\u0131da \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"3-ceyrek-buyume-yuzde-26-28-cikabilir","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"3. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.6-2.8 \u00e7\u0131kabilir","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":632,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":12866,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":12767,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"3. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.6-2.8 \u00e7\u0131kabilir","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">2015 y\u0131l\u0131na girerken, kimi uluslararas\u0131 finans ve uluslararas\u0131 derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrk ekonomisine y\u00f6nelik b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri y\u00fczde 2'nin alt\u0131nda, hatta az da olsa y\u00fczde 0 veya daha da garibi negatifti. Yani, T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclece\u011fini iddia ediyorlard\u0131. B\u00f6lgesindeki t\u00fcm siyasi gerginliklere ve i\u00e7 sava\u015fa, \u00fclke i\u00e7erisinde kimi \u00e7evrelerce vah\u015fice y\u00f6netilen 'siyasi belirsizlik' alg\u0131s\u0131na ra\u011fmen, T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin akt\u00f6rleri, mal ve hizmet \u00fcretimindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u00fcrmesi ad\u0131na takdir edilmesi gereken bir \u00e7aba ortaya koyuyor. \u00d6yle ki, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve ticaret son 20-25 y\u0131l\u0131n en s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 d\u00f6neminden ge\u00e7iyor ve T\u00fcrk ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 var g\u00fcc\u00fcyle ihracat \u00e7abas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. T\u00fcrk reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ayakta kalma m\u00fccadelesine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, ekonomi bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 2.5, ikinci \u00e7eyrekte de y\u00fczde 3.8 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>SANAY\u0130 \u00dcRET\u0130M VER\u0130S\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u015eimdi, ilk iki \u00e7eyrek 'k\u00f6t\u00fcmser beklentileri teyit etmeyen verilere i\u015faret edince, de\u011fi\u015fik gerek\u00e7elerle, hatta az\u0131nl\u0131k bir k\u00fctle adeta k\u00f6t\u00fc \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 i\u00e7in neredeyse dua edecek; \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fin s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n ya da y\u00fczde 1'in biraz alt\u0131nda veya \u00e7ok az \u00fcst\u00fcnde bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 y\u0131ld\u0131r izledi\u011fim bir iptidai metotla yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m hesaplama, 3. \u00e7eyrekte GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 2.6 ile 2.8 aras\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu basit tahmin y\u00f6ntemiyle, 3. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminim, en k\u00f6t\u00fc 2.2; en iyi 3.8; y\u00fczde 70 olas\u0131l\u0131k ile 2.6 ile 2.8 aras\u0131 \u015fekillenecek gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn performans\u0131 ile ilgili ayl\u0131k bazda bir \u00f6n bilgimiz olmamas\u0131 nedeniyle, s\u00f6z konusu GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminimizi, ancak her ay a\u00e7\u0131klanan sanayi \u00fcretim verisi \u00fczerinden y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz bir tahminle hesap edebiliyoruz. Bu metotla, bu k\u00f6\u015feden 2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 3.9 diye payla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Y\u00fczde 3.8 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 0.1 puan yan\u0131lma iyi say\u0131l\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>TARIM VE PERAKENDE B\u00dcY\u00dcMEY\u0130 DESTEKLEYEB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>T\u00dc\u0130K<\/strong>, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re ya da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131, de\u011fi\u015fim oran\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131 takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f veriler ile yap\u0131yor. Biz de GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 tahminimizi takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f sanayi \u00fcretimi de\u011fi\u015fim oran\u0131 \u00fczerinden yap\u0131yoruz. 7 Haziran'dan 1 Kas\u0131m'a, siyasi gerginlik ve ter\u00f6r dolu bir 5.5-6 ay ge\u00e7irdik. Hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 olas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131y\u0131 \u00f6nceden, a\u00e7\u0131klanan ba\u015fka verilere bakarak \u00f6ng\u00f6rmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yoruz. Bununla birlikte, tar\u0131mda \u00fcretim 2014'e g\u00f6re daha iyi. Tar\u0131msal \u00fcretim, hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131y\u0131 dengeleyecek mi; 3. \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda anlam\u0131\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131z. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Temmuz ay\u0131ndan, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 sonuna, hayli gergin ge\u00e7en bir siyaset ve ter\u00f6r d\u00f6nemine ra\u011fmen, T\u00dc\u0130K'in hesaplad\u0131\u011f\u0131 veriler, perakende sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde sat\u0131\u015f hacminin, eyl\u00fclde ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 0.6, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda ise y\u00fczde 0.2 azal\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00dc\u0130K'in a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 veriler, mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f veriler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, 2015 performans\u0131n\u0131n 2014'\u00fcn \u00fczerinde gitti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Sadece takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f veri de ayn\u0131 tabloya i\u015faret ediyor. Mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f sabit fiyatlarla perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacmi ise y\u0131l\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 0.4 artm\u0131\u015f.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacmi ise bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 3.5 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015f. Mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f cari fiyatlarla perakende ciro hacminde ise y\u0131l\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 1.1 art\u0131\u015f kaydedilmi\u015f. Yukar\u0131da, 3. \u00e7eyrek sanayi \u00fcretimi \u00fczerinden yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerimi teyit etmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f perakende sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ciro hacmindeki bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 5.5 art\u0131\u015f anlaml\u0131. Bu art\u0131\u015fa bakarak, y\u00fczde 70 ihtimalle y\u00fczde 2.6 ile 2.8 aras\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm 3. \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi, daha da yukar\u0131da \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"3-ceyrek-buyume-yuzde-26-28-cikabilir","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"3. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.6-2.8 \u00e7\u0131kabilir","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":632,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}