{"status":true,"post":{"id":82692,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":0,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2026-01-23 10:23:00","created_at":"2026-01-23T07:23:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2026-01-23T07:23:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2026-01-23 10:23:00","source_id":null,"post_id":82692,"is_featured":0,"title":"2026 beklentileri \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda reel ekonominin y\u00f6n\u00fc","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":"2026 beklentileri \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda reel ekonominin y\u00f6n\u00fc","sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"

Uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar, 2026\u2019ya ili\u015fkin yenilenen b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini payla\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131mla k\u00fcresel ekonominin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2.6 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, IMF\u2019nin tahmini y\u00fczde 3.3 seviyesinde. \u0130ki kurumun tahminlerinin metodolojik olarak farkl\u0131 model, de\u011fi\u015fken ve varsay\u0131mlara dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 unutmamak laz\u0131m. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla do\u011frudan bir kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma yapmak do\u011fru olmaz. Her iki kurumun da ortak paydada bulu\u015ftu\u011fu iki konu var: Birincisi, ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 ve jeopolitik riskler gibi \u015foklara ra\u011fmen k\u00fcresel ekonominin bir \u015fekilde diren\u00e7li kalabilmesi. \u0130kincisi ise alt\u0131 ay \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla 2026\u2019ya dair b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilmesi.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

IMF ekonomistleri, zorlay\u0131c\u0131 ko\u015fullara ra\u011fmen k\u00fcresel ekonominin \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 da olsa b\u00fcy\u00fcme rotas\u0131ndan sapmamas\u0131na neden olan unsurlar\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle s\u0131ral\u0131yor:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

* G\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifesi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan gerilimlerin \u015fimdilik azalmas\u0131,<\/p>


<\/p>

* Uluslararas\u0131 ticaretteki aksamalar\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelme konusunda \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00e7evikli\u011fi,<\/p>


<\/p>

* Maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekleyici y\u00f6ndeki etkileri,<\/p>


<\/p>

* Finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n elveri\u015fli kalmas\u0131,<\/p>


<\/p>

* Geli\u015fen ekonomilerde uygulanan politika \u00e7er\u00e7evesinin istikrar sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131,<\/p>


<\/p>

* Yapay zeka ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere bilgi teknolojileri sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n h\u0131zla artmas\u0131.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

Bu noktada, k\u00fcresel ekonomiye dair beklentilerin reel sekt\u00f6r a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ne anlama geldi\u011fini analiz etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fal\u0131m. \u00d6ncelikle, k\u00fcresel mal ticareti hacminin bu y\u0131l 2025\u2019e k\u0131yasla daha yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin daha olas\u0131 oldu\u011funu not etmek gerekiyor. Olumlu taraftan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise tarife art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel mal ticaretini ilk ba\u015fta beklendi\u011fi kadar olumsuz etkilememi\u015f olmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, Avrupa pazar\u0131nda son aylarda \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir canlanma ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda Euro\u2019nun dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi de ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in olumlu bir geli\u015fme. K\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde hizmet ticaretinin daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 ise hizmet ihracat\u0131 yapan \u015firketlerimiz i\u00e7in yeni i\u015f f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

2026\u2019da finansman maliyetlerinin bir miktar daha gerilemesi kuvvetle muhtemel. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faiz indirimlerini h\u0131zland\u0131rmas\u0131 durumunda, finansal ko\u015fullar T\u00fcrkiye gibi geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in cazip h\u00e2le gelebilir. \u0130\u00e7eride enflasyonun hedeflenen patikada a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyrini sa\u011flayabilirsek, d\u00fc\u015fen faizlerle birlikte \u00f6zellikle y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 finansmana eri\u015fim a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha rahatlat\u0131c\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>


<\/p>

K\u00fcresel emtia fiyatlar\u0131, \u015fu a\u015famada \u00fcretim maliyetleri \u00fczerinde ciddi bir bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmuyor. Ancak emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n jeopolitik geli\u015fmelere y\u00fcksek derecede ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir risk unsuru olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Zira d\u00fcnyan\u0131n bir\u00e7ok noktas\u0131nda jeopolitik riskler halen s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor. Rusya-Ukrayna, ABD-\u0130srail-\u0130ran ve \u00c7in-Tayvan hatlar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler, emtia fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde belirleyici olmaya devam edecek. Mevcut belirsizliklerin ve risklerin alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi de\u011ferli metallere y\u00f6nelik talebi desteklemesi ise \u015fu a\u015famada netle\u015fmi\u015f durumda. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Ekonomi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda cereyan eden meselelerin a\u011f\u0131r bast\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu t\u00fcr d\u00f6nemlerde, \u015firketlerin karar mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde i\u015fletmeleri kolay de\u011fil. \u015eirketlerin kontrol\u00fcnde olmayan de\u011fi\u015fkenlerin i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisi olduk\u00e7a fazla. Bu dalgal\u0131 sularda yol al\u0131nd\u0131k\u00e7a, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn zorluklarla ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kma ve rotay\u0131 tayin etme yetkinlikleri ister istemez geli\u015fiyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, temkinli bir iyimserlikle \u015firketlerin 2026\u2019y\u0131 planlamalar\u0131 daha makul bir strateji olacakt\u0131r. \u015eirketlerin yaln\u0131zca sezgilere dayal\u0131 de\u011fil; d\u00fcnyadaki geli\u015fmeleri yak\u0131ndan takip ederek ve veriye dayal\u0131 bi\u00e7imde karar almalar\u0131 kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/p>","slug":"2026-beklentileri-isiginda-reel-ekonominin-yonu","tags":null,"meta_title":"2026 beklentileri \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda reel ekonominin y\u00f6n\u00fc","meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/17691156007d1gC7JDxIOxchU.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":0,"cropped_1200x675":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/1200x675\/2026-beklentileri-isiginda-reel-ekonominin-yonu_1200x675_Ug8xVPY863.webp","user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":82824,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":82692,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"2026 beklentileri \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda reel ekonominin y\u00f6n\u00fc","home_title":"2026 beklentileri \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda reel ekonominin y\u00f6n\u00fc","sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"

Uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar, 2026\u2019ya ili\u015fkin yenilenen b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini payla\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131mla k\u00fcresel ekonominin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2.6 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, IMF\u2019nin tahmini y\u00fczde 3.3 seviyesinde. \u0130ki kurumun tahminlerinin metodolojik olarak farkl\u0131 model, de\u011fi\u015fken ve varsay\u0131mlara dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 unutmamak laz\u0131m. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla do\u011frudan bir kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma yapmak do\u011fru olmaz. Her iki kurumun da ortak paydada bulu\u015ftu\u011fu iki konu var: Birincisi, ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 ve jeopolitik riskler gibi \u015foklara ra\u011fmen k\u00fcresel ekonominin bir \u015fekilde diren\u00e7li kalabilmesi. \u0130kincisi ise alt\u0131 ay \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla 2026\u2019ya dair b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilmesi.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

IMF ekonomistleri, zorlay\u0131c\u0131 ko\u015fullara ra\u011fmen k\u00fcresel ekonominin \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 da olsa b\u00fcy\u00fcme rotas\u0131ndan sapmamas\u0131na neden olan unsurlar\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle s\u0131ral\u0131yor:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

* G\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifesi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan gerilimlerin \u015fimdilik azalmas\u0131,<\/p>


<\/p>

* Uluslararas\u0131 ticaretteki aksamalar\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelme konusunda \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00e7evikli\u011fi,<\/p>


<\/p>

* Maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekleyici y\u00f6ndeki etkileri,<\/p>


<\/p>

* Finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n elveri\u015fli kalmas\u0131,<\/p>


<\/p>

* Geli\u015fen ekonomilerde uygulanan politika \u00e7er\u00e7evesinin istikrar sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131,<\/p>


<\/p>

* Yapay zeka ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere bilgi teknolojileri sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n h\u0131zla artmas\u0131.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

Bu noktada, k\u00fcresel ekonomiye dair beklentilerin reel sekt\u00f6r a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ne anlama geldi\u011fini analiz etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fal\u0131m. \u00d6ncelikle, k\u00fcresel mal ticareti hacminin bu y\u0131l 2025\u2019e k\u0131yasla daha yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin daha olas\u0131 oldu\u011funu not etmek gerekiyor. Olumlu taraftan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise tarife art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel mal ticaretini ilk ba\u015fta beklendi\u011fi kadar olumsuz etkilememi\u015f olmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, Avrupa pazar\u0131nda son aylarda \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir canlanma ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda Euro\u2019nun dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi de ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in olumlu bir geli\u015fme. K\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde hizmet ticaretinin daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 ise hizmet ihracat\u0131 yapan \u015firketlerimiz i\u00e7in yeni i\u015f f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

2026\u2019da finansman maliyetlerinin bir miktar daha gerilemesi kuvvetle muhtemel. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faiz indirimlerini h\u0131zland\u0131rmas\u0131 durumunda, finansal ko\u015fullar T\u00fcrkiye gibi geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in cazip h\u00e2le gelebilir. \u0130\u00e7eride enflasyonun hedeflenen patikada a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyrini sa\u011flayabilirsek, d\u00fc\u015fen faizlerle birlikte \u00f6zellikle y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 finansmana eri\u015fim a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha rahatlat\u0131c\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>


<\/p>

K\u00fcresel emtia fiyatlar\u0131, \u015fu a\u015famada \u00fcretim maliyetleri \u00fczerinde ciddi bir bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmuyor. Ancak emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n jeopolitik geli\u015fmelere y\u00fcksek derecede ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir risk unsuru olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Zira d\u00fcnyan\u0131n bir\u00e7ok noktas\u0131nda jeopolitik riskler halen s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor. Rusya-Ukrayna, ABD-\u0130srail-\u0130ran ve \u00c7in-Tayvan hatlar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler, emtia fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde belirleyici olmaya devam edecek. Mevcut belirsizliklerin ve risklerin alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi de\u011ferli metallere y\u00f6nelik talebi desteklemesi ise \u015fu a\u015famada netle\u015fmi\u015f durumda. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Ekonomi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda cereyan eden meselelerin a\u011f\u0131r bast\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu t\u00fcr d\u00f6nemlerde, \u015firketlerin karar mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde i\u015fletmeleri kolay de\u011fil. \u015eirketlerin kontrol\u00fcnde olmayan de\u011fi\u015fkenlerin i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisi olduk\u00e7a fazla. Bu dalgal\u0131 sularda yol al\u0131nd\u0131k\u00e7a, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn zorluklarla ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kma ve rotay\u0131 tayin etme yetkinlikleri ister istemez geli\u015fiyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, temkinli bir iyimserlikle \u015firketlerin 2026\u2019y\u0131 planlamalar\u0131 daha makul bir strateji olacakt\u0131r. \u015eirketlerin yaln\u0131zca sezgilere dayal\u0131 de\u011fil; d\u00fcnyadaki geli\u015fmeleri yak\u0131ndan takip ederek ve veriye dayal\u0131 bi\u00e7imde karar almalar\u0131 kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/p>","slug":"2026-beklentileri-isiginda-reel-ekonominin-yonu","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/17691156007d1gC7JDxIOxchU.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/17691156007d1gC7JDxIOxchU.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/638x552\/2026-beklentileri-isiginda-reel-ekonominin-yonu_638x552_OTaiKA5pjD.webp","cropped_310x208":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/310x208\/2026-beklentileri-isiginda-reel-ekonominin-yonu_310x208_ialscsIVth.webp","cropped_416x247":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/416x247\/2026-beklentileri-isiginda-reel-ekonominin-yonu_416x247_7uOb37ChVJ.webp","cropped_197x247":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/197x247\/2026-beklentileri-isiginda-reel-ekonominin-yonu_197x247_95e7YmyMGE.webp","cropped_416x600":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/416x600\/2026-beklentileri-isiginda-reel-ekonominin-yonu_416x600_3CK7iuFdQp.webp","cropped_1200x675":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/1200x675\/2026-beklentileri-isiginda-reel-ekonominin-yonu_1200x675_Ug8xVPY863.webp","tags":null,"meta_title":"2026 beklentileri \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda reel ekonominin y\u00f6n\u00fc","meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":0,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/358x214\/2026-beklentileri-isiginda-reel-ekonominin-yonu_358x214_06Np11HvMj.webp","cropped_842x474":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/842x474\/2026-beklentileri-isiginda-reel-ekonominin-yonu_842x474_AyGllA0ZOZ.webp"}]}}