{"status":true,"post":{"id":39873,"user_id":2,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2023-05-15 08:00:00","created_at":"2023-05-15T05:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-05-15T05:00:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":39873,"is_featured":0,"title":"2023\u2019te \u00c7in ekonomisinin gidi\u015fi","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"FAT\u0130H OKTAY","content":"

<\/span><\/strong>
<\/span><\/p>

fatih@fatihoktay.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Eskiden d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin nereye gitti\u011fini kestirmek i\u00e7in ABD ekonomisinin durumuna bak\u0131l\u0131rd\u0131; \u015fimdilerde \u00c7in\u2019e bakmak gerekiyor. IMF\u2019ye g\u00f6re \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l d\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00fc\u00e7te biri \u00c7in ekonomisinden gelecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Y\u0131lda 3 trilyon dolara yakla\u015fan ithalat\u0131yla \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Yine IMF de\u011ferlendirmelerine g\u00f6re, \u00c7in ekonomisinin her bir puanl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, di\u011fer \u00fclke ekonomilerine 0.3 puanl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olarak yans\u0131yor. IMF, nisan ay\u0131ndaki D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc raporunda bu y\u0131l d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2.8 ve \u00c7in ekonomisi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 5.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininde bulunuyor. D\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in tahminin tutmas\u0131, \u00c7in ekonomisi tahmininin tutmas\u0131na yak\u0131ndan ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Y\u00dcZDE 4.5 B\u00dcY\u00dcME<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Hat\u0131rlanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, \u00c7in ekonomisinde 2020 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki ilk Covid krizinden sonra ge\u00e7en y\u0131l da s\u0131f\u0131r Covid politikas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 kapanmalar nedeniyle bir ikinci mini kriz ya\u015fand\u0131 ve ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 3 gibi bu \u00fclke i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir d\u00fczeyde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. S\u0131f\u0131r\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Covid politikas\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131l terkedilmesinden sonra vakalar\u0131n h\u0131zla artmas\u0131, ekonominin gelece\u011fi ile ilgili \u015f\u00fcpheler yaratt\u0131ysa da durum kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131. \u00c7in Ulusal \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu ilk \u00e7eyrek verileri, ekonominin normale d\u00f6nmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu verilere g\u00f6re, \u00fclke ekonomisi ilk \u00e7eyrekte ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re, t\u00fcm tahminlerin \u00fczerinde bir h\u0131zda, y\u00fczde 4.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

B\u00fcy\u00fcme, bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re ise y\u00fczde 2.2 oldu. Bu, korunabilecek olursa \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek bir y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Veriler, ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini s\u00fcr\u00fckleyenin servis sekt\u00f6r\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Buna g\u00f6re, tar\u0131m ve sanayi sekt\u00f6rlerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 3.3 ve 3.7 olurken, hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 5.4 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de ba\u015f\u0131 \u00e7eken, kapanmalar\u0131n sona ermesiyle i\u00e7 turizm ve sosyal ya\u015fam\u0131n normale d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn yans\u0131mas\u0131 olarak, y\u00fczde 13.6 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile konaklama ve yemek sekt\u00f6r\u00fcyd\u00fc. Veriler g\u00f6re sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcr\u00fckleyen ise ye\u015fil sanayiler oldu; ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi h\u00fccre \u00fcretimi y\u00fczde 53, elektrikli ara\u00e7 \u00fcretimi ise y\u00fczde 22 artt\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

K\u00dc\u00c7\u00dcK \u00d6ZEL \u015e\u0130RKETLER<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu olumlu olanlar yan\u0131nda, \u00c7in ekonomisinin hen\u00fcz d\u00fcze \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren veriler var. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re t\u00fcketici mal\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1.3 art\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken, sanayi mal\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1.6 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar alan\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Veriler, ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fin sabit k\u0131ymet yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 5.1 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ancak bu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n altyap\u0131 alan\u0131nda ve a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak devlet \u015firketleri ile b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketlerde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. B\u00fcy\u00fck devlet \u015firketlerinin sabit k\u0131ymet yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 10 d\u00fczeyindeyken, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6zel \u015firketlerinkinin ancak y\u00fczde 0,6 artm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, ekonomideki d\u00fczelmenin dengeli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6zel \u015firketlerin Covid krizinin etkisinden kurtulamad\u0131klar\u0131, sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda bir iyile\u015fme olmu\u015f olsa da hen\u00fcz bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fczeltip yat\u0131r\u0131m d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr hale gelmedikleri biliniyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u0130stihdam sa\u011flamakta \u00f6nemli bir role sahip olan bu t\u00fcr \u015firketlerin durumu, verilere g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 20 d\u00fczeyine ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen gen\u00e7 i\u015fsizli\u011fi ile de ili\u015fkili g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6zel \u015firketlerin durumu d\u00fczelmeden \u00c7in ekonomisi tam anlam\u0131yla normalle\u015fmeyecek; bunun h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc devlet deste\u011fi gerektirecek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"2023te-cin-ekonomisinin-gidisi","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1684098000mkOsYBjJ0YBfjTH.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1523,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":2,"name":"FAT\u0130H","surname":"OKTAY","email":"ozansoy.tuna@akay.com","slug":"fatih-oktay","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600qSRn7kb3ZZVHU3t.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T14:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":39999,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":39873,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"2023\u2019te \u00c7in ekonomisinin gidi\u015fi","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"FAT\u0130H OKTAY","content":"

<\/span><\/strong>
<\/span><\/p>

fatih@fatihoktay.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Eskiden d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin nereye gitti\u011fini kestirmek i\u00e7in ABD ekonomisinin durumuna bak\u0131l\u0131rd\u0131; \u015fimdilerde \u00c7in\u2019e bakmak gerekiyor. IMF\u2019ye g\u00f6re \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l d\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00fc\u00e7te biri \u00c7in ekonomisinden gelecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Y\u0131lda 3 trilyon dolara yakla\u015fan ithalat\u0131yla \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Yine IMF de\u011ferlendirmelerine g\u00f6re, \u00c7in ekonomisinin her bir puanl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, di\u011fer \u00fclke ekonomilerine 0.3 puanl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olarak yans\u0131yor. IMF, nisan ay\u0131ndaki D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc raporunda bu y\u0131l d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2.8 ve \u00c7in ekonomisi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 5.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininde bulunuyor. D\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in tahminin tutmas\u0131, \u00c7in ekonomisi tahmininin tutmas\u0131na yak\u0131ndan ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Y\u00dcZDE 4.5 B\u00dcY\u00dcME<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Hat\u0131rlanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, \u00c7in ekonomisinde 2020 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki ilk Covid krizinden sonra ge\u00e7en y\u0131l da s\u0131f\u0131r Covid politikas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 kapanmalar nedeniyle bir ikinci mini kriz ya\u015fand\u0131 ve ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 3 gibi bu \u00fclke i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir d\u00fczeyde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. S\u0131f\u0131r\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Covid politikas\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131l terkedilmesinden sonra vakalar\u0131n h\u0131zla artmas\u0131, ekonominin gelece\u011fi ile ilgili \u015f\u00fcpheler yaratt\u0131ysa da durum kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131. \u00c7in Ulusal \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu ilk \u00e7eyrek verileri, ekonominin normale d\u00f6nmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu verilere g\u00f6re, \u00fclke ekonomisi ilk \u00e7eyrekte ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re, t\u00fcm tahminlerin \u00fczerinde bir h\u0131zda, y\u00fczde 4.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

B\u00fcy\u00fcme, bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re ise y\u00fczde 2.2 oldu. Bu, korunabilecek olursa \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek bir y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Veriler, ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini s\u00fcr\u00fckleyenin servis sekt\u00f6r\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Buna g\u00f6re, tar\u0131m ve sanayi sekt\u00f6rlerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 3.3 ve 3.7 olurken, hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 5.4 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de ba\u015f\u0131 \u00e7eken, kapanmalar\u0131n sona ermesiyle i\u00e7 turizm ve sosyal ya\u015fam\u0131n normale d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn yans\u0131mas\u0131 olarak, y\u00fczde 13.6 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile konaklama ve yemek sekt\u00f6r\u00fcyd\u00fc. Veriler g\u00f6re sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcr\u00fckleyen ise ye\u015fil sanayiler oldu; ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi h\u00fccre \u00fcretimi y\u00fczde 53, elektrikli ara\u00e7 \u00fcretimi ise y\u00fczde 22 artt\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

K\u00dc\u00c7\u00dcK \u00d6ZEL \u015e\u0130RKETLER<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu olumlu olanlar yan\u0131nda, \u00c7in ekonomisinin hen\u00fcz d\u00fcze \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren veriler var. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re t\u00fcketici mal\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1.3 art\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken, sanayi mal\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1.6 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar alan\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Veriler, ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fin sabit k\u0131ymet yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 5.1 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ancak bu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n altyap\u0131 alan\u0131nda ve a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak devlet \u015firketleri ile b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketlerde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. B\u00fcy\u00fck devlet \u015firketlerinin sabit k\u0131ymet yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 10 d\u00fczeyindeyken, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6zel \u015firketlerinkinin ancak y\u00fczde 0,6 artm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, ekonomideki d\u00fczelmenin dengeli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6zel \u015firketlerin Covid krizinin etkisinden kurtulamad\u0131klar\u0131, sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda bir iyile\u015fme olmu\u015f olsa da hen\u00fcz bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fczeltip yat\u0131r\u0131m d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr hale gelmedikleri biliniyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u0130stihdam sa\u011flamakta \u00f6nemli bir role sahip olan bu t\u00fcr \u015firketlerin durumu, verilere g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 20 d\u00fczeyine ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen gen\u00e7 i\u015fsizli\u011fi ile de ili\u015fkili g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6zel \u015firketlerin durumu d\u00fczelmeden \u00c7in ekonomisi tam anlam\u0131yla normalle\u015fmeyecek; bunun h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc devlet deste\u011fi gerektirecek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"2023te-cin-ekonomisinin-gidisi","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1684098000mkOsYBjJ0YBfjTH.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1684098000mkOsYBjJ0YBfjTH.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":1523,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}