{"status":true,"post":{"id":36022,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-12-23 15:58:00","created_at":"2022-12-23T12:58:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-12-23T12:58:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":36022,"is_featured":0,"title":"2023 i\u00e7in 5 temel \u2018k\u00fcresel risk\u2019","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","content":"

keremalkin@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n, uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczeyde ara\u015ft\u0131rma yapan STK\u2019lar\u0131n ve OECD gibi uluslararas\u0131 te\u015fkilatlar\u0131n, 2023 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerine dair raporlar\u0131 tar\u0131yoruz. Bu raporlar\u0131n hemen hemen t\u00fcm\u00fcnde 2023 i\u00e7in 5 temel risk \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u0130lki, jeopolitik risk ve k\u00fcresel a\u015f\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k tehditlerinin \u00e7e\u015fitlenmesi. 2. risk, derinle\u015fen siyasi kutupla\u015fma ve toplumsal huzursuzluk riski. 3. risk, artan siber riskler ve k\u00fcresel siber a\u011f\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6kme riski. 4. risk, operasyonel riskler ve derinle\u015fen enerji krizi riski. 5. ve son risk ise iklim riski.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

1. risk a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, gerek Avrupa gerekse Asya-Pasifik, 2023\u2019te de radarda olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bundan sonra ge\u00e7ece\u011fi a\u015famalar, sava\u015f\u0131 en az birka\u00e7 y\u0131l uzatacak bir t\u0131rmanma veya bar\u0131\u015fa do\u011fru ad\u0131mlar, k\u00fcresel sistemdeki dengeleri derinden etkileyecek. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, \u2018sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n uzamas\u0131, k\u00fcresel enerji, k\u00fcresel g\u0131da ve k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirine y\u00f6nelik tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 alevlendirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu konuyla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak, \u00f6zellikle Atlantik bazl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00c7in-Tayvan gerginli\u011fini g\u00fcndemde tutabilmek ad\u0131na yo\u011fun \u00e7aba i\u00e7erisinde olacaklar\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00c7in \u00fczerinde, \u2018Covid-19\u2019a y\u00f6nelik tedbirleri bahane ederek, k\u00fcresel tedarik sistemine hammadde, ara mamul ve nihai \u00fcr\u00fcn teminini s\u00fcrekli belirli bir d\u00fczeyin alt\u0131nda tutaca\u011f\u0131 ve bu nedenle k\u00fcresel enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n devam edece\u011fi de konu\u015fuluyor. Ancak, \u00c7in\u2019in bu varsay\u0131mla ekonomisinin yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini g\u00f6ze almas\u0131nda belirli soru i\u015faretleri s\u00f6z konusu. Bu nedenle, \u00c7in 2023\u2019te k\u00fcresel tedarik sistemine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde d\u00f6ner ve \u00fcretim ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131r ise bu durumda, ba\u015fta enerji t\u00fcrevleri (petrol, do\u011falgaz ve k\u00f6m\u00fcr) olmak \u00fczere, k\u00fcresel emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda ikinci bir k\u00fcresel enflasyon dalgas\u0131 olu\u015fabilir. Bu durum, \u00f6nde gelen merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 daha da faizleri art\u0131rmaya zorlar ise \u2018stagflasyon\u2019 riski de masada olacak.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2. risk t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyan\u0131n sorunu. Bilhassa, k\u00fcresel sosyal medya platformlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden t\u0131rmanan \u2018nefret s\u00f6ylemi\u2019, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n her yerinde siyasi ve toplumsal kutupla\u015fmay\u0131 derinle\u015ftiriyor. Bu durum ne yaz\u0131k ki, toplumsal huzursuzluk riskini de t\u0131rmand\u0131r\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel sistemdeki derin yap\u0131lar taraf\u0131ndan ne yaz\u0131k ki, sistematik bir \u015fekilde derinle\u015ftirilen din, dil, \u0131rk, k\u00fclt\u00fcr ve cinsiyet ay\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sanki belirli bir kesimi koruyormu\u015f gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcp; asl\u0131nda, ayn\u0131 toplumun ve toplumlar\u0131n farkl\u0131 kesimlerini ajite etmeye y\u00f6nelik derin bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya kar\u015f\u0131 uyan\u0131k olunmas\u0131 gerekecek. Atlantik bazl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015flar\u0131, bilhassa Bat\u0131\u2019daki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k e\u011filimlerini, 2022 boyunca bilhassa Avrupa ve ABD\u2019de t\u0131rmanan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sa\u011f ve daha geni\u015f ter\u00f6rist ideolojilere dayal\u0131 motivasyondan endi\u015felerini hayli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dille g\u00fcndeme getiriyorlar.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

3. risk, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta Kanarya Adalar\u0131\u2019nda, \u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n ev sahipli\u011finde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen OECD Dijital Ekonomi Bakanlar Zirvesi\u2019nde de g\u00fcndeme geldi. Verilerin s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00fcven ve k\u0131talar aras\u0131nda, ki\u015fisel verilerin ticarile\u015ftirilmesine y\u00f6nelik ciddi farkl\u0131l\u0131klar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde ve Atlantik ile Asya-Pasifik aras\u0131ndaki k\u00fcresel siyasi gerginliklere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, 2023\u2019te k\u00fcresel siber a\u011f \u00fczerinden i\u015fbirli\u011finin \u00e7\u00f6kme riski. Ayr\u0131ca, \u2018hipersonik dijitalle\u015fme\u2019nin her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn daha da tehlikeli bir boyut kazanan bilgisayar korsanlar\u0131na sundu\u011fu f\u0131rsatlar, 2022\u2019nin 3. \u00e7eyre\u011finde d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda 15 milyon veri ihlaline sebep oldu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

4. risk, k\u00fcresel enerji, g\u0131da ve tedarik zinciri krizine ba\u011fl\u0131 operasyonel riskler. Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 2023\u2019te ula\u015fabilece\u011fi yeni boyutlar ve Atlantik ile Asya-Pasifik aras\u0131ndaki gerginliklerin enerji, g\u0131da ve t\u00fcm ula\u015ft\u0131rma modlar\u0131 (karayolu, havayolu, denizyolu, demiryolu ve boru hatt\u0131) ile lojistik merkezleri-sistemleri \u00fczerinde olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131 a\u011f\u0131r \u2018operasyonel risk\u2019in de y\u00f6netilmesi gerekecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

5. risk olan k\u00fcresel iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi riski ise her g\u00fcn g\u00fcndemimizde. Ancak, \u015firketler ve kurumlar h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u00f6z konusu riskin ciddiyeti konusunda yeterince tedbirli de\u011fil. Umar\u0131z, 2023 k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta bir do\u011fal afetler y\u0131l\u0131 olmaz.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"2023-icin-5-temel-kuresel-risk","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1133,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":36148,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":36022,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"2023 i\u00e7in 5 temel \u2018k\u00fcresel risk\u2019","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","content":"

keremalkin@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n, uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczeyde ara\u015ft\u0131rma yapan STK\u2019lar\u0131n ve OECD gibi uluslararas\u0131 te\u015fkilatlar\u0131n, 2023 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerine dair raporlar\u0131 tar\u0131yoruz. Bu raporlar\u0131n hemen hemen t\u00fcm\u00fcnde 2023 i\u00e7in 5 temel risk \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u0130lki, jeopolitik risk ve k\u00fcresel a\u015f\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k tehditlerinin \u00e7e\u015fitlenmesi. 2. risk, derinle\u015fen siyasi kutupla\u015fma ve toplumsal huzursuzluk riski. 3. risk, artan siber riskler ve k\u00fcresel siber a\u011f\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6kme riski. 4. risk, operasyonel riskler ve derinle\u015fen enerji krizi riski. 5. ve son risk ise iklim riski.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

1. risk a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, gerek Avrupa gerekse Asya-Pasifik, 2023\u2019te de radarda olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bundan sonra ge\u00e7ece\u011fi a\u015famalar, sava\u015f\u0131 en az birka\u00e7 y\u0131l uzatacak bir t\u0131rmanma veya bar\u0131\u015fa do\u011fru ad\u0131mlar, k\u00fcresel sistemdeki dengeleri derinden etkileyecek. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, \u2018sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n uzamas\u0131, k\u00fcresel enerji, k\u00fcresel g\u0131da ve k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirine y\u00f6nelik tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 alevlendirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu konuyla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak, \u00f6zellikle Atlantik bazl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00c7in-Tayvan gerginli\u011fini g\u00fcndemde tutabilmek ad\u0131na yo\u011fun \u00e7aba i\u00e7erisinde olacaklar\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00c7in \u00fczerinde, \u2018Covid-19\u2019a y\u00f6nelik tedbirleri bahane ederek, k\u00fcresel tedarik sistemine hammadde, ara mamul ve nihai \u00fcr\u00fcn teminini s\u00fcrekli belirli bir d\u00fczeyin alt\u0131nda tutaca\u011f\u0131 ve bu nedenle k\u00fcresel enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n devam edece\u011fi de konu\u015fuluyor. Ancak, \u00c7in\u2019in bu varsay\u0131mla ekonomisinin yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini g\u00f6ze almas\u0131nda belirli soru i\u015faretleri s\u00f6z konusu. Bu nedenle, \u00c7in 2023\u2019te k\u00fcresel tedarik sistemine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde d\u00f6ner ve \u00fcretim ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131r ise bu durumda, ba\u015fta enerji t\u00fcrevleri (petrol, do\u011falgaz ve k\u00f6m\u00fcr) olmak \u00fczere, k\u00fcresel emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda ikinci bir k\u00fcresel enflasyon dalgas\u0131 olu\u015fabilir. Bu durum, \u00f6nde gelen merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 daha da faizleri art\u0131rmaya zorlar ise \u2018stagflasyon\u2019 riski de masada olacak.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2. risk t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyan\u0131n sorunu. Bilhassa, k\u00fcresel sosyal medya platformlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden t\u0131rmanan \u2018nefret s\u00f6ylemi\u2019, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n her yerinde siyasi ve toplumsal kutupla\u015fmay\u0131 derinle\u015ftiriyor. Bu durum ne yaz\u0131k ki, toplumsal huzursuzluk riskini de t\u0131rmand\u0131r\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel sistemdeki derin yap\u0131lar taraf\u0131ndan ne yaz\u0131k ki, sistematik bir \u015fekilde derinle\u015ftirilen din, dil, \u0131rk, k\u00fclt\u00fcr ve cinsiyet ay\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sanki belirli bir kesimi koruyormu\u015f gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcp; asl\u0131nda, ayn\u0131 toplumun ve toplumlar\u0131n farkl\u0131 kesimlerini ajite etmeye y\u00f6nelik derin bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya kar\u015f\u0131 uyan\u0131k olunmas\u0131 gerekecek. Atlantik bazl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015flar\u0131, bilhassa Bat\u0131\u2019daki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k e\u011filimlerini, 2022 boyunca bilhassa Avrupa ve ABD\u2019de t\u0131rmanan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sa\u011f ve daha geni\u015f ter\u00f6rist ideolojilere dayal\u0131 motivasyondan endi\u015felerini hayli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dille g\u00fcndeme getiriyorlar.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

3. risk, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta Kanarya Adalar\u0131\u2019nda, \u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n ev sahipli\u011finde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen OECD Dijital Ekonomi Bakanlar Zirvesi\u2019nde de g\u00fcndeme geldi. Verilerin s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00fcven ve k\u0131talar aras\u0131nda, ki\u015fisel verilerin ticarile\u015ftirilmesine y\u00f6nelik ciddi farkl\u0131l\u0131klar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde ve Atlantik ile Asya-Pasifik aras\u0131ndaki k\u00fcresel siyasi gerginliklere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, 2023\u2019te k\u00fcresel siber a\u011f \u00fczerinden i\u015fbirli\u011finin \u00e7\u00f6kme riski. Ayr\u0131ca, \u2018hipersonik dijitalle\u015fme\u2019nin her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn daha da tehlikeli bir boyut kazanan bilgisayar korsanlar\u0131na sundu\u011fu f\u0131rsatlar, 2022\u2019nin 3. \u00e7eyre\u011finde d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda 15 milyon veri ihlaline sebep oldu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

4. risk, k\u00fcresel enerji, g\u0131da ve tedarik zinciri krizine ba\u011fl\u0131 operasyonel riskler. Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 2023\u2019te ula\u015fabilece\u011fi yeni boyutlar ve Atlantik ile Asya-Pasifik aras\u0131ndaki gerginliklerin enerji, g\u0131da ve t\u00fcm ula\u015ft\u0131rma modlar\u0131 (karayolu, havayolu, denizyolu, demiryolu ve boru hatt\u0131) ile lojistik merkezleri-sistemleri \u00fczerinde olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131 a\u011f\u0131r \u2018operasyonel risk\u2019in de y\u00f6netilmesi gerekecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

5. risk olan k\u00fcresel iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi riski ise her g\u00fcn g\u00fcndemimizde. Ancak, \u015firketler ve kurumlar h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u00f6z konusu riskin ciddiyeti konusunda yeterince tedbirli de\u011fil. Umar\u0131z, 2023 k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta bir do\u011fal afetler y\u0131l\u0131 olmaz.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"2023-icin-5-temel-kuresel-risk","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":1133,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}