{"status":true,"post":{"id":36265,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2023-01-09 12:51:00","created_at":"2023-01-09T09:51:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-01-09T09:51:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":36265,"is_featured":0,"title":"2022\u2019den 2023\u2019e k\u00fcresel ekonomik gidi\u015fat","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","content":"

<\/span><\/strong>ngur@medipol.com.tr<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2022 y\u0131l\u0131, ekonomik anlamda her y\u00f6n\u00fcyle zorlay\u0131c\u0131 ge\u00e7ti. Koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n yaralar\u0131 sar\u0131l\u0131rken patlak veren Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131, zaten pamuk ipli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 ekonomik dengeleri alt \u00fcst etti. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n enerjideki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 malum. Ukrayna ise m\u0131s\u0131r ve bu\u011fday gibi tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u00fcresel oyunculardan biri. Hal b\u00f6yle olunca, sava\u015f\u0131n k\u00fcresel enerji ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde etki olu\u015fturmamas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclemezdi. Artan enerji ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131, zaten y\u00fcksek irtifaya do\u011fru yol alan k\u00fcresel enflasyonu iyice h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131. D\u00fcnya, son 40 y\u0131l\u0131n en a\u011f\u0131r enflasyonunu ya\u015fad\u0131. Sava\u015f, ekonomik beklentilerin ve alg\u0131n\u0131n k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmesine neden oldu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu denkleme s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 ve \u00c7in\u2019in s\u0131f\u0131r vaka politikas\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7memesi gibi fakt\u00f6rler eklenince, k\u00fcresel ekonomi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak yava\u015flad\u0131. D\u00fcnya 2022\u2019de stagflasyon riskiyle bo\u011fu\u015ftu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

KISM\u0130 RAHATLAMA ALANLARI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2023, baz\u0131 alanlarda k\u0131smi rahatlamalar\u0131n ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 ama genel hatlar\u0131yla zorlu ge\u00e7mesi muhtemel bir y\u0131l. Bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede enflasyon tepe noktas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Yeni bir d\u0131\u015fsal \u015fok ya\u015fanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fcddet\u00e7e, bu y\u0131l enflasyonun y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru olacak. Dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinin kendini hissettirmesiyle birlikte merkez bankalar\u0131, parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne bir noktada son verecek. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fi itibariyle k\u00fcresel faizlerdeki y\u00fckseli\u015fin sonuna gelebiliriz. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz silah\u0131n\u0131 kullanmaya son vermeleri, geli\u015fen \u00fclke para birimlerinin i\u015fine yarayacakt\u0131r. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelere sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 2023 daha bereketli bir y\u0131l olabilir. K\u00fcresel ekonomiyi rahatlatabilecek bir ba\u015fka geli\u015fme, \u00c7in\u2019in s\u0131f\u0131r vaka politikas\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7mesi. \u00c7in\u2019deki bu gev\u015feme, fabrika ve limanlar\u0131n rutin i\u015fleyi\u015flerine geri d\u00f6nmesini sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r. Bu sayede k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirlilerindeki t\u0131kan\u0131kl\u0131klar azalacakt\u0131r. \u00c7in\u2019deki a\u00e7\u0131lman\u0131n k\u00fcresel ekonomiye pozitif yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131 bahar aylar\u0131ndan itibaren g\u00f6zlemleyebiliriz. T\u00fcm bu geli\u015fmeler sayesinde, k\u00fcresel iktisadi faaliyet y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00f6rece daha canl\u0131 bir seyir izleyebilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

CAN SIKICI R\u0130SKLER<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bir de madalyonun di\u011fer y\u00fcz\u00fcne bakal\u0131m. Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcre i\u00e7erisinde bitece\u011fe benzemiyor. Bat\u0131, Rusya\u2019y\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar yoluyla daha da s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Rusya da buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermekte geri durmuyor. AB, bu sene bir \u015fekilde enerji darbo\u011faz\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ama gelecek y\u0131l enerji borular\u0131n\u0131n\/depolar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l dolaca\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir soru i\u015fareti. 2023\u2019\u00fcn son \u00e7eyre\u011finde enerji s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 Avrupa ekonomisinin ba\u015f\u0131na \u00e7orap \u00f6rebilir. ABD ve \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki diplomatik ve ekonomik ili\u015fkiler, 2022\u2019de olduk\u00e7a tats\u0131z bir seyir izledi. Tayvan meselesi ve teknoloji sava\u015f\u0131, bu y\u0131l da k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi tedirgin etmeye aday. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcm bu olas\u0131 geli\u015fmeleri alt alta yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z zaman karma\u015f\u0131k bir hesap ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k i\u00e7erisinde daha net \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek noktalar da mevcut. 2023\u2019te k\u00fcresel enflasyon hissedilir bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sergileyebilir. \u00d6te yandan, s\u0131k\u0131 ekonomi politikalar\u0131 ve jeopolitik riskler k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131la k\u0131yasla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekmesi kuvvetle muhtemel. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi bahar ve yaz aylar\u0131na k\u0131yasla k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in daha zorlu ge\u00e7ecektir. Bunca belirsizlik aras\u0131nda \u015fimdiden son \u00e7eyre\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6rebilmek ise \u00e7ok da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"2022den-2023e-kuresel-ekonomik-gidisat","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1269,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":36391,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":36265,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"2022\u2019den 2023\u2019e k\u00fcresel ekonomik gidi\u015fat","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","content":"

<\/span><\/strong>ngur@medipol.com.tr<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2022 y\u0131l\u0131, ekonomik anlamda her y\u00f6n\u00fcyle zorlay\u0131c\u0131 ge\u00e7ti. Koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n yaralar\u0131 sar\u0131l\u0131rken patlak veren Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131, zaten pamuk ipli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 ekonomik dengeleri alt \u00fcst etti. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n enerjideki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 malum. Ukrayna ise m\u0131s\u0131r ve bu\u011fday gibi tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u00fcresel oyunculardan biri. Hal b\u00f6yle olunca, sava\u015f\u0131n k\u00fcresel enerji ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde etki olu\u015fturmamas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclemezdi. Artan enerji ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131, zaten y\u00fcksek irtifaya do\u011fru yol alan k\u00fcresel enflasyonu iyice h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131. D\u00fcnya, son 40 y\u0131l\u0131n en a\u011f\u0131r enflasyonunu ya\u015fad\u0131. Sava\u015f, ekonomik beklentilerin ve alg\u0131n\u0131n k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmesine neden oldu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu denkleme s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 ve \u00c7in\u2019in s\u0131f\u0131r vaka politikas\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7memesi gibi fakt\u00f6rler eklenince, k\u00fcresel ekonomi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak yava\u015flad\u0131. D\u00fcnya 2022\u2019de stagflasyon riskiyle bo\u011fu\u015ftu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

KISM\u0130 RAHATLAMA ALANLARI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2023, baz\u0131 alanlarda k\u0131smi rahatlamalar\u0131n ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 ama genel hatlar\u0131yla zorlu ge\u00e7mesi muhtemel bir y\u0131l. Bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede enflasyon tepe noktas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Yeni bir d\u0131\u015fsal \u015fok ya\u015fanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fcddet\u00e7e, bu y\u0131l enflasyonun y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru olacak. Dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinin kendini hissettirmesiyle birlikte merkez bankalar\u0131, parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne bir noktada son verecek. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fi itibariyle k\u00fcresel faizlerdeki y\u00fckseli\u015fin sonuna gelebiliriz. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz silah\u0131n\u0131 kullanmaya son vermeleri, geli\u015fen \u00fclke para birimlerinin i\u015fine yarayacakt\u0131r. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelere sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 2023 daha bereketli bir y\u0131l olabilir. K\u00fcresel ekonomiyi rahatlatabilecek bir ba\u015fka geli\u015fme, \u00c7in\u2019in s\u0131f\u0131r vaka politikas\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7mesi. \u00c7in\u2019deki bu gev\u015feme, fabrika ve limanlar\u0131n rutin i\u015fleyi\u015flerine geri d\u00f6nmesini sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r. Bu sayede k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirlilerindeki t\u0131kan\u0131kl\u0131klar azalacakt\u0131r. \u00c7in\u2019deki a\u00e7\u0131lman\u0131n k\u00fcresel ekonomiye pozitif yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131 bahar aylar\u0131ndan itibaren g\u00f6zlemleyebiliriz. T\u00fcm bu geli\u015fmeler sayesinde, k\u00fcresel iktisadi faaliyet y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00f6rece daha canl\u0131 bir seyir izleyebilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

CAN SIKICI R\u0130SKLER<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bir de madalyonun di\u011fer y\u00fcz\u00fcne bakal\u0131m. Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcre i\u00e7erisinde bitece\u011fe benzemiyor. Bat\u0131, Rusya\u2019y\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar yoluyla daha da s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Rusya da buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermekte geri durmuyor. AB, bu sene bir \u015fekilde enerji darbo\u011faz\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ama gelecek y\u0131l enerji borular\u0131n\u0131n\/depolar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l dolaca\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir soru i\u015fareti. 2023\u2019\u00fcn son \u00e7eyre\u011finde enerji s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 Avrupa ekonomisinin ba\u015f\u0131na \u00e7orap \u00f6rebilir. ABD ve \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki diplomatik ve ekonomik ili\u015fkiler, 2022\u2019de olduk\u00e7a tats\u0131z bir seyir izledi. Tayvan meselesi ve teknoloji sava\u015f\u0131, bu y\u0131l da k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi tedirgin etmeye aday. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcm bu olas\u0131 geli\u015fmeleri alt alta yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z zaman karma\u015f\u0131k bir hesap ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k i\u00e7erisinde daha net \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek noktalar da mevcut. 2023\u2019te k\u00fcresel enflasyon hissedilir bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sergileyebilir. \u00d6te yandan, s\u0131k\u0131 ekonomi politikalar\u0131 ve jeopolitik riskler k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131la k\u0131yasla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekmesi kuvvetle muhtemel. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi bahar ve yaz aylar\u0131na k\u0131yasla k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in daha zorlu ge\u00e7ecektir. Bunca belirsizlik aras\u0131nda \u015fimdiden son \u00e7eyre\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6rebilmek ise \u00e7ok da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"2022den-2023e-kuresel-ekonomik-gidisat","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":1269,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}