{"status":true,"post":{"id":31253,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 16:47:35","created_at":"2022-02-17T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T13:47:35.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":31253,"is_featured":0,"title":"2021 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 11.2","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu (T\u00dc\u0130K) taraf\u0131ndan 28 \u015eubat g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2021 GSYH verileri ve GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 oran\u0131yla ilgili hesaplar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131, tahminlerimizi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyoruz. \u015eu ana kadar a\u00e7\u0131klanan 2021\u2019in b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc temsil eden sanayi \u00fcretim verileri, ihracat verileri \u00fczerinden ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fimiz tahminler, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 11.3 ile 11.02 aras\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen 45 \u00f6nemli \u00fclkesi ve OECD \u00fcyesi \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda, \u0130rlanda ile birlikte 2021\u2019i en y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 ile bitirdi\u011fimizi; G20 \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda ise y\u0131l\u0131 en y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 ile tamamlam\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fumuzu g\u00f6steriyor. A\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 tahminim, 2021\u2019i y\u00fczde 11.2 d\u00fczeyinde bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile tamamlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> T\u00dc\u0130K, 28 \u015eubat\u2019ta sadece 2021\u2019in t\u00fcm verisini de\u011fil, \u00f6ncelikle 4. \u00e7eyrek GSYH verilerini de a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, <\/span><span class=\"large\">4. \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 i\u00e7in en iyimser tahminimin y\u00fczde 8.5, en k\u00f6t\u00fcmser tahminimin ise y\u00fczde 6.65 oldu\u011funu belirtmek isterim. T\u00fcm bu tahminler bir araya getirildi\u011finde dahi 2021 i\u00e7in GSYH reel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 11.31 ile 11.02 aras\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kacak g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Covid-19\u2019un art\u00e7\u0131 etkileriyle \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u00fclkenin hayli me\u015fakkatli bir \u015fekilde toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131 2021\u2019i, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin hayli y\u00fcksek oranda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile tamamlamas\u0131, \u00fcretim kapasitemizin ve \u00fcretim kabiliyetlerimizin ne kadar dinamik oldu\u011funu kan\u0131tl\u0131yor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Gelelim TL ve dolar cinsinden T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin GSYH\u2019nin 2021\u2019de hangi seviyeyi yakalam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine\u2026 <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> 2021 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 11.2 olarak revize etti\u011fim \u2018yeni\u2019 reel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 tahminim do\u011frultusunda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2021 nominal GSYH i\u00e7in yeni tahminimin 7 trilyon 635 milyar 658 milyon TL oldu\u011funu, dolar cinsinden ise 856.5 milyar dolar anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fini ifade edebilirim. T\u00fcm bu tahminleri, hi\u00e7 ku\u015fkusuz ki T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in son derece detayl\u0131 veriyle hesaplanan GSYH deflat\u00f6r\u00fcyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00e7ok k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 veriyle yap\u0131yoruz. Bakal\u0131m, 28 \u015eubat\u2019ta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan resmi verilere ne kadar yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>K\u00dcRESEL T\u0130CARET 29 TR\u0130LYON DOLAR<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> 2021\u2019de 28 trilyon dolar hacim yakalam\u0131\u015f olan k\u00fcresel ticaret, 2022 i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen 1 trilyon dolarl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131, kuvvetle muhtemel, k\u00fcresel hizmet ticaretindeki art\u0131\u015f ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirecek. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, 2021\u2019de iyi bir toparlanma yakalam\u0131\u015f olsa da k\u00fcresel hizmet ticareti, h\u00e2l\u00e2 2019\u2019un alt\u0131nda.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> 2021\u2019in kesinlik kazanm\u0131\u015f 3. \u00e7eyrek verilerine g\u00f6re, sadece bir \u00e7eyrekte yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 5.6 trilyon dolarl\u0131k i\u015flem hacmiyle, k\u00fcresel mal ticareti yeni bir \u2018\u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nem\u2019 hacmi rekoru k\u0131rarken, ayn\u0131 3. \u00e7eyrekte k\u00fcresel hizmet ticareti ise 1.5 trilyon dolarl\u0131k bir hacim yakalayabildi. 2021\u2019in 4. \u00e7eyre\u011finde, 3. \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksek bir art\u0131\u015f yakalam\u0131\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilen k\u00fcresel mal ticaretinden yeni bir \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nem rekoru bekleniyor. 3. \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 0.2 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne, y\u00fczde 9.1 artm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu tahmin edilen k\u00fcresel mal ticaretinin aksine; 3. \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 2.7 artm\u0131\u015f olan k\u00fcresel hizmet ticaretinin, son \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 4.1\u2019lik bir art\u0131\u015f yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. K\u00fcresel mal ticaretinin y\u00fczde 25.3\u2019l\u00fck art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, k\u00fcresel hizmet ticareti 2021\u2019de y\u00fczde 14.4 art\u0131\u015f yakalayabildi.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Pek \u00e7ok \u00f6nde gelen uluslararas\u0131 kurulu\u015fun tahminleri ve k\u00fcresel mal ticaretini hayli etkileyebilecek g\u00fcndem maddelerinin beklenen \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geli\u015fme g\u00f6stermemesi veya 2022\u2019nin 2. \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren etkisini kaybetmeleri halinde, k\u00fcresel mal ticaretinin 15.2 milyar metrik ton ile 2021\u2019de yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hacim rekorunu, 2022\u2019de 15.8 milyar metrik tona ta\u015f\u0131maya uzak olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. B\u00f6yle bir tablo, k\u00fcresel mal ticaretine y\u00fczde 4.4 seviyesinde kadar bir art\u0131\u015f getirebilir. 2021\u2019de 22 trilyon dolar ile tarihin en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olan k\u00fcresel mal ticareti, 2022\u2019de bu rekor seviyeyi korusa da, 2021\u2019de 6 trilyon dolar\u0131 yakalayan k\u00fcresel hizmet ticaretinin, 2022\u2019de 7 trilyon dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel ticareti de 29 trilyon dolara ta\u015f\u0131yacak. K\u00fcresel mal ticaretinin 23 trilyon dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131 halinde ise ilk kez k\u00fcresel ticarette 30 trilyon dolar\u0131 dahi g\u00f6rebiliriz.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"2021-buyumesi-yuzde-112","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2021 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 11.2","meta_description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1087,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":31352,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":31253,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"2021 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 11.2","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu (T\u00dc\u0130K) taraf\u0131ndan 28 \u015eubat g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2021 GSYH verileri ve GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 oran\u0131yla ilgili hesaplar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131, tahminlerimizi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyoruz. \u015eu ana kadar a\u00e7\u0131klanan 2021\u2019in b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc temsil eden sanayi \u00fcretim verileri, ihracat verileri \u00fczerinden ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fimiz tahminler, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 11.3 ile 11.02 aras\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen 45 \u00f6nemli \u00fclkesi ve OECD \u00fcyesi \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda, \u0130rlanda ile birlikte 2021\u2019i en y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 ile bitirdi\u011fimizi; G20 \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda ise y\u0131l\u0131 en y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 ile tamamlam\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fumuzu g\u00f6steriyor. A\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 tahminim, 2021\u2019i y\u00fczde 11.2 d\u00fczeyinde bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile tamamlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> T\u00dc\u0130K, 28 \u015eubat\u2019ta sadece 2021\u2019in t\u00fcm verisini de\u011fil, \u00f6ncelikle 4. \u00e7eyrek GSYH verilerini de a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, <\/span><span class=\"large\">4. \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 i\u00e7in en iyimser tahminimin y\u00fczde 8.5, en k\u00f6t\u00fcmser tahminimin ise y\u00fczde 6.65 oldu\u011funu belirtmek isterim. T\u00fcm bu tahminler bir araya getirildi\u011finde dahi 2021 i\u00e7in GSYH reel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 11.31 ile 11.02 aras\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kacak g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Covid-19\u2019un art\u00e7\u0131 etkileriyle \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u00fclkenin hayli me\u015fakkatli bir \u015fekilde toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131 2021\u2019i, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin hayli y\u00fcksek oranda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile tamamlamas\u0131, \u00fcretim kapasitemizin ve \u00fcretim kabiliyetlerimizin ne kadar dinamik oldu\u011funu kan\u0131tl\u0131yor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Gelelim TL ve dolar cinsinden T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin GSYH\u2019nin 2021\u2019de hangi seviyeyi yakalam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine\u2026 <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> 2021 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 11.2 olarak revize etti\u011fim \u2018yeni\u2019 reel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 tahminim do\u011frultusunda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2021 nominal GSYH i\u00e7in yeni tahminimin 7 trilyon 635 milyar 658 milyon TL oldu\u011funu, dolar cinsinden ise 856.5 milyar dolar anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fini ifade edebilirim. T\u00fcm bu tahminleri, hi\u00e7 ku\u015fkusuz ki T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in son derece detayl\u0131 veriyle hesaplanan GSYH deflat\u00f6r\u00fcyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00e7ok k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 veriyle yap\u0131yoruz. Bakal\u0131m, 28 \u015eubat\u2019ta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan resmi verilere ne kadar yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>K\u00dcRESEL T\u0130CARET 29 TR\u0130LYON DOLAR<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> 2021\u2019de 28 trilyon dolar hacim yakalam\u0131\u015f olan k\u00fcresel ticaret, 2022 i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen 1 trilyon dolarl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131, kuvvetle muhtemel, k\u00fcresel hizmet ticaretindeki art\u0131\u015f ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirecek. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, 2021\u2019de iyi bir toparlanma yakalam\u0131\u015f olsa da k\u00fcresel hizmet ticareti, h\u00e2l\u00e2 2019\u2019un alt\u0131nda.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> 2021\u2019in kesinlik kazanm\u0131\u015f 3. \u00e7eyrek verilerine g\u00f6re, sadece bir \u00e7eyrekte yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 5.6 trilyon dolarl\u0131k i\u015flem hacmiyle, k\u00fcresel mal ticareti yeni bir \u2018\u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nem\u2019 hacmi rekoru k\u0131rarken, ayn\u0131 3. \u00e7eyrekte k\u00fcresel hizmet ticareti ise 1.5 trilyon dolarl\u0131k bir hacim yakalayabildi. 2021\u2019in 4. \u00e7eyre\u011finde, 3. \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksek bir art\u0131\u015f yakalam\u0131\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilen k\u00fcresel mal ticaretinden yeni bir \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nem rekoru bekleniyor. 3. \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 0.2 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne, y\u00fczde 9.1 artm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu tahmin edilen k\u00fcresel mal ticaretinin aksine; 3. \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 2.7 artm\u0131\u015f olan k\u00fcresel hizmet ticaretinin, son \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 4.1\u2019lik bir art\u0131\u015f yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. K\u00fcresel mal ticaretinin y\u00fczde 25.3\u2019l\u00fck art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, k\u00fcresel hizmet ticareti 2021\u2019de y\u00fczde 14.4 art\u0131\u015f yakalayabildi.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Pek \u00e7ok \u00f6nde gelen uluslararas\u0131 kurulu\u015fun tahminleri ve k\u00fcresel mal ticaretini hayli etkileyebilecek g\u00fcndem maddelerinin beklenen \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geli\u015fme g\u00f6stermemesi veya 2022\u2019nin 2. \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren etkisini kaybetmeleri halinde, k\u00fcresel mal ticaretinin 15.2 milyar metrik ton ile 2021\u2019de yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hacim rekorunu, 2022\u2019de 15.8 milyar metrik tona ta\u015f\u0131maya uzak olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. B\u00f6yle bir tablo, k\u00fcresel mal ticaretine y\u00fczde 4.4 seviyesinde kadar bir art\u0131\u015f getirebilir. 2021\u2019de 22 trilyon dolar ile tarihin en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olan k\u00fcresel mal ticareti, 2022\u2019de bu rekor seviyeyi korusa da, 2021\u2019de 6 trilyon dolar\u0131 yakalayan k\u00fcresel hizmet ticaretinin, 2022\u2019de 7 trilyon dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel ticareti de 29 trilyon dolara ta\u015f\u0131yacak. K\u00fcresel mal ticaretinin 23 trilyon dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131 halinde ise ilk kez k\u00fcresel ticarette 30 trilyon dolar\u0131 dahi g\u00f6rebiliriz.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"2021-buyumesi-yuzde-112","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2021 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 11.2","meta_description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1087,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}