{"status":true,"post":{"id":21289,"user_id":1,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:06:02","created_at":"2019-12-26T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:06:02.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":21289,"is_featured":0,"title":"2020 ve sonras\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisi nas\u0131l \u015fekillenecek?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

\"\"Hakan G\u00fclda\u011f<\/strong><\/span>
<\/p>

2019\u2019a girerken, ABD ve di\u011fer zengin \u00fclkeler cephesinden bak\u0131\u015f gayet iyimser, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ve kimi geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere bak\u0131\u015f hayli k\u00f6t\u00fcmserdi. Senaryoya g\u00f6re, Amerikan Merkez Bankas\u0131 konumundaki Fed, faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na devam edecekti. 3, belki de <\/span>4 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 bekleniyordu. Ama ne olduysa oldu, tablo tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. \u00d6zellikle Davos\u2019taki D\u00fcnya Ekonomik Forumu\u2019nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketlerinin CEO\u2019lar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lan ankette, 800 CEO\u2019nun neredeyse tamam\u0131 2019\u2019da \u2018durgunluk\u2019 <\/span>ya da \u2018resesyon\u2019 bekledi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klay\u0131nca, \u00f6nde gelen merkez bankalar\u0131 \u2018U\u2019 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yapt\u0131. Faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 yerini faiz indirimlerine b\u0131rakt\u0131. Ger\u00e7ekten de art\u0131k bitirmekte oldu\u011fumuz bu y\u0131l, d\u00fcnya ticareti hayli k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc. 2008-2009 global ekonomik krizinden sonraki 10 y\u0131l\u0131n en k\u00f6t\u00fc performans\u0131n\u0131 sergiledi. <\/span><\/p>

\u00d6te yandan, 2018 a\u011fustosunda ya\u015fanan kur \u015foku sonras\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2019\u2019da \u00e7ok k\u00f6t\u00fc bir performans sergileyece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Y\u00fczde 3 civar\u0131nda daralma ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 analizleri yap\u0131l\u0131yordu. \u00d6yle olmad\u0131. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk iki \u00e7eyre\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fcme negatif seyrettikten sonra \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck de olsa pozitife ge\u00e7ti. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde ise y\u00fczde 5, hatta 5.5\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme gelebilir. Y\u0131l\u0131 da pozitifte tamamlayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2020\u2019de d\u00fcnya ekonomisine ili\u015fkin beklentiler daha iyimser. \u00d6nce b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerine bakal\u0131m:<\/span><\/p>

Gelecek y\u0131la ili\u015fkin tahminler d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2019 y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6re \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir toparlanma ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazan\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

2019\u2019da d\u00fcnya yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 3 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. 2020\u2019de y\u00fczde 3.2 ile 3.6 aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, IMF\u2019ye g\u00f6re d\u00fcnya ekonomisi gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek. <\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya ticaretinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine y\u00f6nelik olumlu beklentiler ise \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek oranlara ula\u015f\u0131yor. D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn belirlemelerine g\u00f6re d\u00fcnya ticaret hacmi 2019\u2019da sadece y\u00fczde 1.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 2.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek. <\/span>
Geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerin ihracat\u0131 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda hemen hi\u00e7 artmad\u0131. D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn analizlerine g\u00f6re, b\u00fct\u00fcn bir y\u0131l boyunca ancak y\u00fczde 0.4\u2019l\u00fck bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerin ihracat\u0131 y\u00fczde 2.2 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterecek. Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler ise gelecek y\u0131l ihracat\u0131 y\u00fczde 3.4 art\u0131racak. \u0130thalata gelince... Geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerin ithalat\u0131 y\u00fczde 1.2, y\u00fckselen ekonomilerin ise y\u00fczde 4.3 artacak. Bunlar DT\u00d6 verileri. IMF\u2019ye bakarsak, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler gelecek y\u0131l ithalat\u0131 y\u00fczde 2.7 art\u0131racak. Y\u00fckselen ekonomilere ili\u015fkin IMF\u2019nin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc, DT\u00d6 ile ayn\u0131...<\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2019\u2019un son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda g\u00f6stergeler, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l daha iyi bir performans g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011finin i\u015faretlerini verdi bile. \u00d6zellikle ekim ve kas\u0131m aylar\u0131nda k\u00fcresel imalat sanayi ile sanayi ve hizmet sekt\u00f6rlerini kapsayan bile\u015fik \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket etti. <\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel sanayi \u00fcretimi ve daha belirgin olarak da ihracat sipari\u015flerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. <\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya tahvil getirilerindeki y\u00fckselme e\u011filimi ve \u00f6zellikle ABD tahvillerinde yeniden uzun vadeli faizler, k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bir ara tersine d\u00f6nen getiri e\u011frisi, yani k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin uzun vadeli tahvillerin faizinin \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda ABD ekonomisinin resesyona girece\u011finin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sinyali olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2020\u2019ye ili\u015fkin olumlu i\u015faretlere ve beklentilere ra\u011fmen uzmanlara g\u00f6re d\u00fcnya ekonomisini \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda daha \u2018yava\u015f\u2019 bir d\u00f6nem bekliyor. <\/span><\/p>

Bunun en \u00f6nemli nedenleri aras\u0131nda demografik de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6steriliyor. 2020\u2019de d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusu bir ilki ya\u015fayacak. D\u00fcnya tarihinde ilk kez 30 ya\u015f\u0131n \u00fczerindeki insanlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131, 30 ya\u015f\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki n\u00fcfustan b\u00fcy\u00fck olacak. \u2018Ya\u015fl\u0131\u2019 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen 65 ya\u015f \u00fcst\u00fc n\u00fcfus da d\u00fcnyadaki 5 ya\u015f ve alt\u0131ndaki \u00e7ocuk say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde ge\u00e7ecek. <\/span>
N\u00fcfusu ya\u015flanan Japonya, \u0130talya ve Portekiz gibi ekonomilerde 2020\u2019li y\u0131llarda ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 1\u2019in hayli alt\u0131nda s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n seyretmesi bekleniyor. <\/span>
\u00c7in, Rusya ve hatta Tayland gibi geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerde de n\u00fcfusun ya\u015flanmas\u0131, sa\u011fl\u0131k hizmetleri ve bak\u0131m ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131racak. <\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2020\u2019li y\u0131llarda tan\u0131k olmam\u0131z beklenen bir ba\u015fka \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fim ise \u00f6nde gelen y\u00fckselen ekonomilerin yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flamas\u0131... Ba\u015fta da \u00c7in. 2020\u2019li y\u0131llar boyunca d\u00fcnya \u00c7in\u2019in yava\u015flamas\u0131na al\u0131\u015facak. Ancak bu, \u00c7in\u2019in 2020\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n sonunda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi olma hedefini sekteye u\u011fratacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Bunda \u00c7in y\u00f6netiminin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde ithalata da a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermesinin \u00f6nemli bir pay\u0131 olacak. E\u011fer \u00c7in y\u00f6netimi s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc tutarsa, 2020\u2019nin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda 10 trilyon dolarl\u0131k ithalat ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmi\u015f olacak. <\/span><\/p>

Her hafta en az iki milyarder yaratan \u00c7in ekonomisinin 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 6.1 b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor. \u00c7in\u2019de y\u00f6netim hem para hem de maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131 devreye sokarak, ekonominin h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yava\u015flamaya girmesini engellemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak.<\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in ekonomisinin yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle d\u00fcnya ekonomisi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 10 y\u0131lda \u00f6nceki 10 y\u0131la g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir performans g\u00f6sterecek. Yap\u0131lan analizler, 2020\u2019li y\u0131llarda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n 2010\u2019lu y\u0131llara g\u00f6re yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya azalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. <\/span><\/p>

\u00d6nde gelen geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131nda gelecek y\u0131l ilk 10\u2019a girebilecek tek ekonomi Hindistan olacak. Yap\u0131lan projeksiyonlar, Asya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfusuna sahip Hindistan\u2019\u0131n gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 6.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Ba\u015fbakan Narendra Modi\u2019nin liderli\u011findeki koalisyonun uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 te\u015fvik programlar\u0131, ekonominin performans\u0131n\u0131 ciddi \u015fekilde art\u0131r\u0131yor. Uzmanlara g\u00f6re, Hindistan 2020\u2019li y\u0131llar boyunca da \u2018h\u0131zl\u0131\u2019 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonomiler aras\u0131nda yer alacak. B\u00f6ylece, 2020\u2019lerin sonuna do\u011fru Hindistan\u2019\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ilk 5 ekonomi aras\u0131na kat\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyor. <\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek b\u00f6lgeler aras\u0131nda ise Afrika \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. N\u00fcfusu da h\u0131zla artan Afrika, T\u00fcrk i\u015f insanlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha fazla dikkate al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken bir k\u0131ta. Yap\u0131lan projeksiyonlara g\u00f6re, bug\u00fcn 7.8 milyar olan d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunun 50 y\u0131ldan biraz fazla bir zaman i\u00e7erisinde 11 milyar\u0131 bulmas\u0131 bekleniyor. <\/span><\/p>

Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te Avrupa n\u00fcfusu 650 milyondan 630 milyona inecek. Asya n\u00fcfusu 4.2 milyardan 4.8 milyara \u00e7\u0131kacak. Amerika k\u0131tas\u0131 hemen hemen ayn\u0131 kalacak. En b\u00fcy\u00fck n\u00fcfus s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 ise Afrika\u2019dan gelecek. Bug\u00fcn 1.2 milyar olan Afrika\u2019n\u0131n n\u00fcfusu 4.2 milyara \u00e7\u0131kacak.<\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2020\u2019de b\u00fct\u00fcn okurlar\u0131m\u0131za sa\u011fl\u0131k, a\u00e7\u0131k bir zihin ve ba\u015far\u0131 diliyorum. <\/span><\/p>

\"\"YEN\u0130 YILIN B\u00dcY\u00dcME \u015eAMP\u0130YONU LAT\u0130N AMER\u0130KA\u2019DAN \u00c7IKACAK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Fildi\u015fi Sahili y\u00fczde 6.8, Etiyopya y\u00fczde 7.4, Ruanda y\u00fczde 7.5 ile Afrika\u2019n\u0131n 2020\u2019de en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi beklenen \u00fclkeleri...<\/span><\/p>

Asya\u2019da Butan\u2019\u0131n y\u00fczde 7.3, Myanmar\u2019\u0131n y\u00fczde 7, Nepal\u2019in ise y\u00fczde 6.9 ile 2020\u2019de bu k\u0131tan\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonomileri olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Asya\u2019n\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ikinci ekonomisi y\u00fczde 7.7 ile Banglade\u015f olacak. \u00dclke, son 15 y\u0131ldaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 ile GSYH\u2019s\u0131n\u0131 2020 itibariyle \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karacak. <\/span><\/p>

Asya\u2019n\u0131n 2020 \u015fampiyonu ise bize \u00e7ok yak\u0131n bir co\u011frafyadan \u00e7\u0131kacak. Yap\u0131lan projeksiyonlara g\u00f6re kom\u015fu Suriye, gelecek y\u0131l Asya\u2019n\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen \u00fclkesi olacak. Yeniden in\u015fa s\u00fcrecine girmesi beklenen Suriye, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l y\u00fczde 9\u2019a yak\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterebilir. <\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek ekonomisinin ise Latin Amerika\u2019dan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Asl\u0131na bakarsan\u0131z G\u00fcney Amerika\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131ta <\/span>olarak gelecek y\u0131l ancak vasat bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stermesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. K\u0131tan\u0131n \u00f6nemli \u00fclkelerinden Arjantin ekonomisinin ise daralmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir Latin Amerika \u00fclkesi olan Guyana, k\u0131tas\u0131n\u0131n 2020 ortalamas\u0131 olarak beklenen y\u00fczde 1.2\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin fersah fersah \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kacak. IMF, Guyana\u2019n\u0131n 2020\u2019de tam y\u00fczde 86 b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stermesini bekliyor. \u2018Ne oldu, Guyana\u2019da petrol m\u00fc \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u2019 diye sorarsan\u0131z, yan\u0131t \u2018Evet, petrol \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131!\u2019 Exxon Mobil\u2019in iki b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol havzas\u0131 ke\u015ffetti\u011fi Guyana\u2019dan y\u0131lda 5 milyar varil petrol \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Guyana, bu \u00fcretimle ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 petrol \u00fcretimi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck 10 petrol \u00fcreticisi aras\u0131na girecek.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"2020-ve-sonrasinda-dunya-ekonomisi-nasil-sekillenecek","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2020 ve sonras\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisi nas\u0131l \u015fekillenecek?","meta_description":"Hakan G\u00fclda\u011f","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1082,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":1,"name":"HAKAN","surname":"G\u00dcLDA\u011e","email":"uakisik@eronat.com.tr","slug":"hakan-guldag","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600kKPzKvWx8Xpxx9n.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T14:51:32.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":21388,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":21289,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"2020 ve sonras\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisi nas\u0131l \u015fekillenecek?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

\"\"Hakan G\u00fclda\u011f<\/strong><\/span>
<\/p>

2019\u2019a girerken, ABD ve di\u011fer zengin \u00fclkeler cephesinden bak\u0131\u015f gayet iyimser, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ve kimi geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere bak\u0131\u015f hayli k\u00f6t\u00fcmserdi. Senaryoya g\u00f6re, Amerikan Merkez Bankas\u0131 konumundaki Fed, faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na devam edecekti. 3, belki de <\/span>4 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 bekleniyordu. Ama ne olduysa oldu, tablo tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. \u00d6zellikle Davos\u2019taki D\u00fcnya Ekonomik Forumu\u2019nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketlerinin CEO\u2019lar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lan ankette, 800 CEO\u2019nun neredeyse tamam\u0131 2019\u2019da \u2018durgunluk\u2019 <\/span>ya da \u2018resesyon\u2019 bekledi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klay\u0131nca, \u00f6nde gelen merkez bankalar\u0131 \u2018U\u2019 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yapt\u0131. Faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 yerini faiz indirimlerine b\u0131rakt\u0131. Ger\u00e7ekten de art\u0131k bitirmekte oldu\u011fumuz bu y\u0131l, d\u00fcnya ticareti hayli k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc. 2008-2009 global ekonomik krizinden sonraki 10 y\u0131l\u0131n en k\u00f6t\u00fc performans\u0131n\u0131 sergiledi. <\/span><\/p>

\u00d6te yandan, 2018 a\u011fustosunda ya\u015fanan kur \u015foku sonras\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2019\u2019da \u00e7ok k\u00f6t\u00fc bir performans sergileyece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Y\u00fczde 3 civar\u0131nda daralma ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 analizleri yap\u0131l\u0131yordu. \u00d6yle olmad\u0131. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk iki \u00e7eyre\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fcme negatif seyrettikten sonra \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck de olsa pozitife ge\u00e7ti. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde ise y\u00fczde 5, hatta 5.5\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme gelebilir. Y\u0131l\u0131 da pozitifte tamamlayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2020\u2019de d\u00fcnya ekonomisine ili\u015fkin beklentiler daha iyimser. \u00d6nce b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerine bakal\u0131m:<\/span><\/p>

Gelecek y\u0131la ili\u015fkin tahminler d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2019 y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6re \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir toparlanma ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazan\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

2019\u2019da d\u00fcnya yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 3 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. 2020\u2019de y\u00fczde 3.2 ile 3.6 aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, IMF\u2019ye g\u00f6re d\u00fcnya ekonomisi gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek. <\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya ticaretinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine y\u00f6nelik olumlu beklentiler ise \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek oranlara ula\u015f\u0131yor. D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn belirlemelerine g\u00f6re d\u00fcnya ticaret hacmi 2019\u2019da sadece y\u00fczde 1.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 2.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek. <\/span>
Geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerin ihracat\u0131 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda hemen hi\u00e7 artmad\u0131. D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn analizlerine g\u00f6re, b\u00fct\u00fcn bir y\u0131l boyunca ancak y\u00fczde 0.4\u2019l\u00fck bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerin ihracat\u0131 y\u00fczde 2.2 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterecek. Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler ise gelecek y\u0131l ihracat\u0131 y\u00fczde 3.4 art\u0131racak. \u0130thalata gelince... Geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerin ithalat\u0131 y\u00fczde 1.2, y\u00fckselen ekonomilerin ise y\u00fczde 4.3 artacak. Bunlar DT\u00d6 verileri. IMF\u2019ye bakarsak, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler gelecek y\u0131l ithalat\u0131 y\u00fczde 2.7 art\u0131racak. Y\u00fckselen ekonomilere ili\u015fkin IMF\u2019nin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc, DT\u00d6 ile ayn\u0131...<\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2019\u2019un son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda g\u00f6stergeler, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l daha iyi bir performans g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011finin i\u015faretlerini verdi bile. \u00d6zellikle ekim ve kas\u0131m aylar\u0131nda k\u00fcresel imalat sanayi ile sanayi ve hizmet sekt\u00f6rlerini kapsayan bile\u015fik \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket etti. <\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel sanayi \u00fcretimi ve daha belirgin olarak da ihracat sipari\u015flerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. <\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya tahvil getirilerindeki y\u00fckselme e\u011filimi ve \u00f6zellikle ABD tahvillerinde yeniden uzun vadeli faizler, k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bir ara tersine d\u00f6nen getiri e\u011frisi, yani k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin uzun vadeli tahvillerin faizinin \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda ABD ekonomisinin resesyona girece\u011finin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sinyali olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2020\u2019ye ili\u015fkin olumlu i\u015faretlere ve beklentilere ra\u011fmen uzmanlara g\u00f6re d\u00fcnya ekonomisini \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda daha \u2018yava\u015f\u2019 bir d\u00f6nem bekliyor. <\/span><\/p>

Bunun en \u00f6nemli nedenleri aras\u0131nda demografik de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6steriliyor. 2020\u2019de d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusu bir ilki ya\u015fayacak. D\u00fcnya tarihinde ilk kez 30 ya\u015f\u0131n \u00fczerindeki insanlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131, 30 ya\u015f\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki n\u00fcfustan b\u00fcy\u00fck olacak. \u2018Ya\u015fl\u0131\u2019 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen 65 ya\u015f \u00fcst\u00fc n\u00fcfus da d\u00fcnyadaki 5 ya\u015f ve alt\u0131ndaki \u00e7ocuk say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde ge\u00e7ecek. <\/span>
N\u00fcfusu ya\u015flanan Japonya, \u0130talya ve Portekiz gibi ekonomilerde 2020\u2019li y\u0131llarda ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 1\u2019in hayli alt\u0131nda s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n seyretmesi bekleniyor. <\/span>
\u00c7in, Rusya ve hatta Tayland gibi geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerde de n\u00fcfusun ya\u015flanmas\u0131, sa\u011fl\u0131k hizmetleri ve bak\u0131m ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131racak. <\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2020\u2019li y\u0131llarda tan\u0131k olmam\u0131z beklenen bir ba\u015fka \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fim ise \u00f6nde gelen y\u00fckselen ekonomilerin yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flamas\u0131... Ba\u015fta da \u00c7in. 2020\u2019li y\u0131llar boyunca d\u00fcnya \u00c7in\u2019in yava\u015flamas\u0131na al\u0131\u015facak. Ancak bu, \u00c7in\u2019in 2020\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n sonunda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi olma hedefini sekteye u\u011fratacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Bunda \u00c7in y\u00f6netiminin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde ithalata da a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermesinin \u00f6nemli bir pay\u0131 olacak. E\u011fer \u00c7in y\u00f6netimi s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc tutarsa, 2020\u2019nin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda 10 trilyon dolarl\u0131k ithalat ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmi\u015f olacak. <\/span><\/p>

Her hafta en az iki milyarder yaratan \u00c7in ekonomisinin 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 6.1 b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor. \u00c7in\u2019de y\u00f6netim hem para hem de maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131 devreye sokarak, ekonominin h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yava\u015flamaya girmesini engellemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak.<\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in ekonomisinin yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle d\u00fcnya ekonomisi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 10 y\u0131lda \u00f6nceki 10 y\u0131la g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir performans g\u00f6sterecek. Yap\u0131lan analizler, 2020\u2019li y\u0131llarda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n 2010\u2019lu y\u0131llara g\u00f6re yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya azalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. <\/span><\/p>

\u00d6nde gelen geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131nda gelecek y\u0131l ilk 10\u2019a girebilecek tek ekonomi Hindistan olacak. Yap\u0131lan projeksiyonlar, Asya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfusuna sahip Hindistan\u2019\u0131n gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 6.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Ba\u015fbakan Narendra Modi\u2019nin liderli\u011findeki koalisyonun uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 te\u015fvik programlar\u0131, ekonominin performans\u0131n\u0131 ciddi \u015fekilde art\u0131r\u0131yor. Uzmanlara g\u00f6re, Hindistan 2020\u2019li y\u0131llar boyunca da \u2018h\u0131zl\u0131\u2019 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonomiler aras\u0131nda yer alacak. B\u00f6ylece, 2020\u2019lerin sonuna do\u011fru Hindistan\u2019\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ilk 5 ekonomi aras\u0131na kat\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyor. <\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek b\u00f6lgeler aras\u0131nda ise Afrika \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. N\u00fcfusu da h\u0131zla artan Afrika, T\u00fcrk i\u015f insanlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha fazla dikkate al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken bir k\u0131ta. Yap\u0131lan projeksiyonlara g\u00f6re, bug\u00fcn 7.8 milyar olan d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunun 50 y\u0131ldan biraz fazla bir zaman i\u00e7erisinde 11 milyar\u0131 bulmas\u0131 bekleniyor. <\/span><\/p>

Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te Avrupa n\u00fcfusu 650 milyondan 630 milyona inecek. Asya n\u00fcfusu 4.2 milyardan 4.8 milyara \u00e7\u0131kacak. Amerika k\u0131tas\u0131 hemen hemen ayn\u0131 kalacak. En b\u00fcy\u00fck n\u00fcfus s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 ise Afrika\u2019dan gelecek. Bug\u00fcn 1.2 milyar olan Afrika\u2019n\u0131n n\u00fcfusu 4.2 milyara \u00e7\u0131kacak.<\/span><\/p>

***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2020\u2019de b\u00fct\u00fcn okurlar\u0131m\u0131za sa\u011fl\u0131k, a\u00e7\u0131k bir zihin ve ba\u015far\u0131 diliyorum. <\/span><\/p>

\"\"YEN\u0130 YILIN B\u00dcY\u00dcME \u015eAMP\u0130YONU LAT\u0130N AMER\u0130KA\u2019DAN \u00c7IKACAK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Fildi\u015fi Sahili y\u00fczde 6.8, Etiyopya y\u00fczde 7.4, Ruanda y\u00fczde 7.5 ile Afrika\u2019n\u0131n 2020\u2019de en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi beklenen \u00fclkeleri...<\/span><\/p>

Asya\u2019da Butan\u2019\u0131n y\u00fczde 7.3, Myanmar\u2019\u0131n y\u00fczde 7, Nepal\u2019in ise y\u00fczde 6.9 ile 2020\u2019de bu k\u0131tan\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonomileri olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Asya\u2019n\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ikinci ekonomisi y\u00fczde 7.7 ile Banglade\u015f olacak. \u00dclke, son 15 y\u0131ldaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 ile GSYH\u2019s\u0131n\u0131 2020 itibariyle \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karacak. <\/span><\/p>

Asya\u2019n\u0131n 2020 \u015fampiyonu ise bize \u00e7ok yak\u0131n bir co\u011frafyadan \u00e7\u0131kacak. Yap\u0131lan projeksiyonlara g\u00f6re kom\u015fu Suriye, gelecek y\u0131l Asya\u2019n\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen \u00fclkesi olacak. Yeniden in\u015fa s\u00fcrecine girmesi beklenen Suriye, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l y\u00fczde 9\u2019a yak\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterebilir. <\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek ekonomisinin ise Latin Amerika\u2019dan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Asl\u0131na bakarsan\u0131z G\u00fcney Amerika\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131ta <\/span>olarak gelecek y\u0131l ancak vasat bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stermesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. K\u0131tan\u0131n \u00f6nemli \u00fclkelerinden Arjantin ekonomisinin ise daralmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir Latin Amerika \u00fclkesi olan Guyana, k\u0131tas\u0131n\u0131n 2020 ortalamas\u0131 olarak beklenen y\u00fczde 1.2\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin fersah fersah \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kacak. IMF, Guyana\u2019n\u0131n 2020\u2019de tam y\u00fczde 86 b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stermesini bekliyor. \u2018Ne oldu, Guyana\u2019da petrol m\u00fc \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u2019 diye sorarsan\u0131z, yan\u0131t \u2018Evet, petrol \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131!\u2019 Exxon Mobil\u2019in iki b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol havzas\u0131 ke\u015ffetti\u011fi Guyana\u2019dan y\u0131lda 5 milyar varil petrol \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Guyana, bu \u00fcretimle ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 petrol \u00fcretimi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck 10 petrol \u00fcreticisi aras\u0131na girecek.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"2020-ve-sonrasinda-dunya-ekonomisi-nasil-sekillenecek","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2020 ve sonras\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisi nas\u0131l \u015fekillenecek?","meta_description":"Hakan G\u00fclda\u011f","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1082,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}