{"status":true,"post":{"id":19596,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:37:58","created_at":"2018-12-16T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:37:58.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":19596,"is_featured":0,"title":"2019\u2019un \u00f6nceli\u011fi tasarruf ve verimlilik","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

2019\u2019un ilk 6 ay\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel ekonomi \u00e7evreleri ve i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik ve siyasi belirsizliklere y\u00f6nelik de\u011ferlendirmeleri artm\u0131\u015f durumda. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, 19 Aral\u0131k ve 2019\u2019un ilk toplant\u0131s\u0131 olan 30 Ocak\u2019ta ne yapaca\u011f\u0131, t\u00fcm 2019 i\u00e7in nas\u0131l sinyal verece\u011fi; Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 24 Ocak toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 2019 i\u00e7in \u2018para politikas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma\u2019 sinyali verip vermeyece\u011fi hayli \u00f6nemli. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc k\u00fcresel i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131, bu toplant\u0131lar \u00fczerinden dolar ve Euro cinsinden bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin nas\u0131l seyredece\u011fini anlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak. ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131nda bir gerilen, bir normalle\u015fen \u2018ticaret sava\u015f\u0131\u2019 ile ABD-AB gerginli\u011finin de 2019\u2019da nereye evrilece\u011fi, k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi, uluslararas\u0131 sermaye hareketlerini etkileyen boyutuyla merak konusu.<\/span><\/p>

K\u00dcRESEL REKABETTE DAHA G\u00dc\u00c7L\u00dc REEL SEKT\u00d6R<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Hazine ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da, 2019\u2019un k\u00fcresel belirsizliklere dayal\u0131 risklerini detayl\u0131 analiz ederek bir b\u00fct\u00e7e haz\u0131rlad\u0131. Bakan Albayrak\u2019\u0131n 2019 i\u00e7in \u2018tasarruf ve verimlilik\u2019 ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131, \u2018fiyat istikrar\u0131\u2019 ve \u2018finansal istikrar\u2019a dayal\u0131 tedbirlerin sonu\u00e7 verme d\u00fczeyi ve s\u00fcresi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 i\u00e7eriyor.<\/span><\/p>

Enflasyonla ve cari a\u00e7\u0131kla m\u00fccadelede, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyon ve cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n ilkbahar ortas\u0131na kadar ekonomistlerin beklentilerinin de \u00f6tesinde gerileme g\u00f6stermesi, TCMB\u2019ye para politikas\u0131 setinde \u00fcretim, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve istihdam lehine \u2018pozisyonland\u0131rma\u2019 ad\u0131na de\u011ferli bir hareket alan\u0131 sa\u011flayacak. Bakan Albayrak\u2019\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi husus a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, 2019 merkezi y\u00f6netim b\u00fct\u00e7esinde, harcamalarda do\u011fru ve yap\u0131c\u0131 tasarruf ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra hem b\u00fct\u00e7e gelirlerinde hem de b\u00fct\u00e7e harcamalar\u0131nda verimlili\u011fin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi, reel sekt\u00f6r \u00fczerindeki kamu y\u00fcklerinin \u2018normalizasyonu\u2019 ve reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn k\u00fcresel rekabet boyutunda rekabet\u00e7ili\u011finin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u0131l\u0131nmas\u0131 ve ihracat hacminin rekor k\u0131rmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli.<\/span><\/p>

NET MAL VE H\u0130ZMET \u0130HRACATI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2018\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi 2019\u2019un ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda da, GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131nda, net mal ve hizmet ihracat\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 kritik \u00f6nemde olacak. \u2018Dengeleme ve disiplin\u2019 d\u00f6nemine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, i\u00e7 talebin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6receli olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyde tutulaca\u011f\u0131 bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, net mal ve hizmet ihracat\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye, istihdama, d\u00f6viz gelirlerine ve cari dengeye yapmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi pozitif katk\u0131n\u0131n, 2. ve 3. nesil ekonomik reformlara sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 hareket alan\u0131 hayli de\u011ferli olacak.<\/span><\/p>

AP\u2019DEN JAPONYA \u0130LE T\u0130CARET ANLA\u015eMASINA ONAY<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Son bir nokta, bu k\u00f6\u015fede uzunca bir s\u00fcredir aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u2018k\u00fcresel ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131\u2019 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Avrupa Parlamentosu\u2019nun AB ile Japonya aras\u0131nda tarihi \u00f6l\u00e7ekte, hayli geni\u015f tutulmu\u015f bir \u2018serbest ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 onaylam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131. ABD, AB, Japonya, \u00c7in gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc akt\u00f6rlerle ticaret ve kur sava\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcrken, iki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oyuncunun bu derece kapsaml\u0131 bir ticari i\u015fbirli\u011fine imza atmas\u0131n\u0131n yank\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte izleyece\u011fiz.<\/span><\/p>

TCMB\u2019N\u0130N KARARLILI\u011eI ENFLASYONU EZECEK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

H\u0131zla y\u00fckselen enflasyonu kontrol alt\u0131na almak ve d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018n\u00f6tralize\u2019 etmek ad\u0131na politika faizini 6.25 puan art\u0131ran TCMB, para politikas\u0131 faiz setini ayn\u0131 d\u00fczeyde tutma karar\u0131 ald\u0131. TCMB\u2019nin para politikas\u0131 faiz seti \u00fczerinden piyasalara ve ekonomi \u00e7evresine uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018bazuka yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u2019 sonu\u00e7 verdi. Temel para politika faiz oran\u0131ndaki 16 puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fla, TCMB\u2019nin son a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kas\u0131m ay\u0131 reel kur endeksi verilerine g\u00f6re, ekim-kas\u0131m d\u00f6neminde TL\u2019nin sepet kura kar\u015f\u0131 ortalama de\u011fer kazanc\u0131 y\u00fczde 21\u2019i yakalad\u0131.<\/span>
D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki g\u00f6receli normalle\u015fmeye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ithal girdi maliyetleri k\u0131smen gerilese de, i\u00e7 talepteki yava\u015flama daha belirgin hale gelmi\u015f olsa da ve bu geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde bir miktar iyile\u015fme g\u00f6zlense de, fiyat istikrar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik riskler devam ediyor. Bu nedenle reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn mal ve hizmet belirleme al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131ndaki bozulma bertaraf edilene kadar TCMB, para politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte kararl\u0131. Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK), ayr\u0131ca hem para politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131n\u0131n hem de maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n dengelenme s\u00fcrecine verece\u011fi katk\u0131n\u0131n gecikmeli etkisini ve enflasyonu etkileyen di\u011fer unsurlar\u0131 takip ederek, \u2018enflasyonu ezmek\u2019 ad\u0131na gerekirse ilave parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma yap\u0131labilece\u011fini de ifade etmi\u015f durumda. <\/span>
Bu noktada, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f man\u015fet enflasyon y\u00fczde 18\u2019in alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rene kadar para politikas\u0131 faiz setinde indirim yap\u0131lmamas\u0131 en do\u011fru taktik olacak.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"2019un-onceligi-tasarruf-ve-verimlilik","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2019\u2019un \u00f6nceli\u011fi tasarruf ve verimlilik","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":96,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":19695,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":19596,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"2019\u2019un \u00f6nceli\u011fi tasarruf ve verimlilik","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

2019\u2019un ilk 6 ay\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel ekonomi \u00e7evreleri ve i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik ve siyasi belirsizliklere y\u00f6nelik de\u011ferlendirmeleri artm\u0131\u015f durumda. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, 19 Aral\u0131k ve 2019\u2019un ilk toplant\u0131s\u0131 olan 30 Ocak\u2019ta ne yapaca\u011f\u0131, t\u00fcm 2019 i\u00e7in nas\u0131l sinyal verece\u011fi; Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 24 Ocak toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 2019 i\u00e7in \u2018para politikas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma\u2019 sinyali verip vermeyece\u011fi hayli \u00f6nemli. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc k\u00fcresel i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131, bu toplant\u0131lar \u00fczerinden dolar ve Euro cinsinden bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin nas\u0131l seyredece\u011fini anlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak. ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131nda bir gerilen, bir normalle\u015fen \u2018ticaret sava\u015f\u0131\u2019 ile ABD-AB gerginli\u011finin de 2019\u2019da nereye evrilece\u011fi, k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi, uluslararas\u0131 sermaye hareketlerini etkileyen boyutuyla merak konusu.<\/span><\/p>

K\u00dcRESEL REKABETTE DAHA G\u00dc\u00c7L\u00dc REEL SEKT\u00d6R<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Hazine ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da, 2019\u2019un k\u00fcresel belirsizliklere dayal\u0131 risklerini detayl\u0131 analiz ederek bir b\u00fct\u00e7e haz\u0131rlad\u0131. Bakan Albayrak\u2019\u0131n 2019 i\u00e7in \u2018tasarruf ve verimlilik\u2019 ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131, \u2018fiyat istikrar\u0131\u2019 ve \u2018finansal istikrar\u2019a dayal\u0131 tedbirlerin sonu\u00e7 verme d\u00fczeyi ve s\u00fcresi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 i\u00e7eriyor.<\/span><\/p>

Enflasyonla ve cari a\u00e7\u0131kla m\u00fccadelede, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyon ve cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n ilkbahar ortas\u0131na kadar ekonomistlerin beklentilerinin de \u00f6tesinde gerileme g\u00f6stermesi, TCMB\u2019ye para politikas\u0131 setinde \u00fcretim, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve istihdam lehine \u2018pozisyonland\u0131rma\u2019 ad\u0131na de\u011ferli bir hareket alan\u0131 sa\u011flayacak. Bakan Albayrak\u2019\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi husus a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, 2019 merkezi y\u00f6netim b\u00fct\u00e7esinde, harcamalarda do\u011fru ve yap\u0131c\u0131 tasarruf ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra hem b\u00fct\u00e7e gelirlerinde hem de b\u00fct\u00e7e harcamalar\u0131nda verimlili\u011fin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi, reel sekt\u00f6r \u00fczerindeki kamu y\u00fcklerinin \u2018normalizasyonu\u2019 ve reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn k\u00fcresel rekabet boyutunda rekabet\u00e7ili\u011finin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u0131l\u0131nmas\u0131 ve ihracat hacminin rekor k\u0131rmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli.<\/span><\/p>

NET MAL VE H\u0130ZMET \u0130HRACATI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2018\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi 2019\u2019un ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda da, GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131nda, net mal ve hizmet ihracat\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 kritik \u00f6nemde olacak. \u2018Dengeleme ve disiplin\u2019 d\u00f6nemine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, i\u00e7 talebin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6receli olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyde tutulaca\u011f\u0131 bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, net mal ve hizmet ihracat\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye, istihdama, d\u00f6viz gelirlerine ve cari dengeye yapmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi pozitif katk\u0131n\u0131n, 2. ve 3. nesil ekonomik reformlara sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 hareket alan\u0131 hayli de\u011ferli olacak.<\/span><\/p>

AP\u2019DEN JAPONYA \u0130LE T\u0130CARET ANLA\u015eMASINA ONAY<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Son bir nokta, bu k\u00f6\u015fede uzunca bir s\u00fcredir aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u2018k\u00fcresel ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131\u2019 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Avrupa Parlamentosu\u2019nun AB ile Japonya aras\u0131nda tarihi \u00f6l\u00e7ekte, hayli geni\u015f tutulmu\u015f bir \u2018serbest ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 onaylam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131. ABD, AB, Japonya, \u00c7in gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc akt\u00f6rlerle ticaret ve kur sava\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcrken, iki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oyuncunun bu derece kapsaml\u0131 bir ticari i\u015fbirli\u011fine imza atmas\u0131n\u0131n yank\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte izleyece\u011fiz.<\/span><\/p>

TCMB\u2019N\u0130N KARARLILI\u011eI ENFLASYONU EZECEK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

H\u0131zla y\u00fckselen enflasyonu kontrol alt\u0131na almak ve d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018n\u00f6tralize\u2019 etmek ad\u0131na politika faizini 6.25 puan art\u0131ran TCMB, para politikas\u0131 faiz setini ayn\u0131 d\u00fczeyde tutma karar\u0131 ald\u0131. TCMB\u2019nin para politikas\u0131 faiz seti \u00fczerinden piyasalara ve ekonomi \u00e7evresine uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018bazuka yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u2019 sonu\u00e7 verdi. Temel para politika faiz oran\u0131ndaki 16 puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fla, TCMB\u2019nin son a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kas\u0131m ay\u0131 reel kur endeksi verilerine g\u00f6re, ekim-kas\u0131m d\u00f6neminde TL\u2019nin sepet kura kar\u015f\u0131 ortalama de\u011fer kazanc\u0131 y\u00fczde 21\u2019i yakalad\u0131.<\/span>
D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki g\u00f6receli normalle\u015fmeye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ithal girdi maliyetleri k\u0131smen gerilese de, i\u00e7 talepteki yava\u015flama daha belirgin hale gelmi\u015f olsa da ve bu geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde bir miktar iyile\u015fme g\u00f6zlense de, fiyat istikrar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik riskler devam ediyor. Bu nedenle reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn mal ve hizmet belirleme al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131ndaki bozulma bertaraf edilene kadar TCMB, para politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte kararl\u0131. Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK), ayr\u0131ca hem para politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131n\u0131n hem de maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n dengelenme s\u00fcrecine verece\u011fi katk\u0131n\u0131n gecikmeli etkisini ve enflasyonu etkileyen di\u011fer unsurlar\u0131 takip ederek, \u2018enflasyonu ezmek\u2019 ad\u0131na gerekirse ilave parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma yap\u0131labilece\u011fini de ifade etmi\u015f durumda. <\/span>
Bu noktada, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f man\u015fet enflasyon y\u00fczde 18\u2019in alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rene kadar para politikas\u0131 faiz setinde indirim yap\u0131lmamas\u0131 en do\u011fru taktik olacak.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"2019un-onceligi-tasarruf-ve-verimlilik","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2019\u2019un \u00f6nceli\u011fi tasarruf ve verimlilik","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":96,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}