{"status":true,"post":{"id":21414,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:07:39","created_at":"2020-01-23T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:07:39.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":21414,"is_featured":0,"title":"2019 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 0.5 olabilir","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin<\/span><\/strong>
<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2019\u2019un son \u00e7eyre\u011fini nas\u0131l bir performansla kapatm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine dair analizlerimize katk\u0131 sa\u011flayacak veriler, sanayi \u00fcretimi ve sekt\u00f6rlerin g\u00fcven endeksi verileri, 2019\u2019da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0.5\u2019lik bir art\u0131\u015f dahi yakalam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u015eubat ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda netlik kazanacak olan 2019 sanayi \u00fcretim performans\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olarak, son a\u00e7\u0131klanan kas\u0131m ay\u0131 verisi, aral\u0131k ay\u0131n\u0131 da rekor bir ihracat rakam\u0131yla kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde sanayi \u00fcretiminin 2018\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 5 ve \u00fczerinde bir art\u0131\u015f yakalam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fini teyit ediyor.<\/span><\/p>

Bu durum, 2019\u2019un son \u00e7eyre\u011finde, y\u00fczde 5, hatta \u00fcst\u00fcn\u00fc bile zorlayabilecek bir \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nemlik sanayi \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla, GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 3.5 ile 4.5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fine dair olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. <\/span><\/p>

Bu durumda, son \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n bu d\u00fczeyi yakalamas\u0131 halinde, t\u00fcm 2019 i\u00e7in GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 rahatl\u0131kla 0.35 ile 0.5 aras\u0131 bir \u00e7\u0131tada y\u0131l\u0131 tamamlayabilir. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 verisi, s\u00f6z konusu tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n u\u00e7 noktas\u0131 olan y\u00fczde 0.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 yakalama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit edebilir. Nitekim, TCMB\u2019nin ayl\u0131k beklenti anketine kat\u0131lan 100\u2019e yak\u0131n ekonomistin, ekim ay\u0131 beklenti anketinde t\u00fcm 2019 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 0.1 iken, aral\u0131k anketinde tahminlerinin ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 0.4\u2019e kadar y\u00fckselmi\u015fti ve tahminlerin \u00e7o\u011fu y\u00fczde 0.5\u2019e i\u015faret ediyordu.<\/span><\/p>

Sonbahardan bu yana, illerin \u00fcretim, istihdam ve yat\u0131r\u0131m performanslar\u0131n\u0131 ve il ekonomisinin nabz\u0131n\u0131 tutmak \u00fczere i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131yla sahada bulu\u015fmalar ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiren Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 Berat Albayrak, \u015fehir \u015fehir sanayicileri dinleyerek, illerin sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zerek, sahada katma de\u011ferli, istihdam ve ihracata dayal\u0131 \u00fcretimin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7acak ad\u0131mlar att\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ve bu ad\u0131mlarla birlikte, son a\u00e7\u0131klanan kas\u0131m ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretim verilerinin de sanayi \u00fcretiminde arzu edilen ivmelenmeye ad\u0131m ad\u0131m ilerlediklerine i\u015faret etti\u011fini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bakan Albayrak, 2020\u2019de \u00fcretim ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok daha ileri ta\u015f\u0131yacaklar\u0131n\u0131 da vurguluyor.<\/span><\/p>

Bakan Albayrak\u2019\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli nokta, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin uluslararas\u0131 piyasalarda tahvil risk primi oran\u0131 olan CDS\u2019lerin may\u0131s 2018\u2019den bu yana, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n da ocak 2017\u2019den bu yana en iyi de\u011ferlerine gelmi\u015f olmas\u0131. \u2018Dengeleme-Disiplin-De\u011fi\u015fim\u2019 d\u00f6nemi 1.5 y\u0131ldan daha k\u0131sa bir d\u00f6nem i\u00e7erisinde, CDS\u2019lerde 320 puan, tahvil faizlerinde ise 1755 baz puanl\u0131k iyile\u015fme ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 yakalad\u0131. A\u011fustos ve 2018 eyl\u00fclde, bu ba\u015far\u0131n\u0131n yakalanaca\u011f\u0131 Bakan Albayrak taraf\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde vurgulan\u0131rken, \u2018felaket tellall\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019 yar\u0131\u015f\u0131na girmi\u015f ekonomistler, bug\u00fcn ya \u2018sus pus\u2019 durumundalar; ya da \u2018marjinalle\u015fmi\u015f muhalefet\u2019le itibar kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyorlar. 2020\u2019de reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn finansman yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rmay\u0131 da tamamlarsak, 2023\u2019e kadar etkili bir \u2018s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u2019 trendi yakalam\u0131\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>

TCMB \u2018\u00d6L\u00c7\u00dcL\u00dc \u0130ND\u0130R\u0130M\u2019\u0130 TERC\u0130H ETT\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

TCMB\u2019nin aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan beklenti anketinde, ocak ay\u0131 i\u00e7in 100\u2019e yak\u0131n ekonomistin ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131, yani t\u00fcketici enflasyonu beklentisi y\u00fczde 0.82 ile 1.16 aras\u0131ndayd\u0131. Tahminler y\u00fczde 1 ile 1.13 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na yo\u011funla\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyordu. Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan ocak ay\u0131 beklenti anketinde ise ayn\u0131 tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 1 ile 1.1\u2019e yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. Ekonomistlerin \u015fubat ay\u0131 enflasyon tahminleri ise y\u00fczde 0.40 ile 0.65 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u015fekillenmi\u015f. Ekonomistlerin aral\u0131k ay\u0131 beklenti anketinde, bu y\u0131l\u0131n \u015fubat ay\u0131 enflasyonu i\u00e7in tahminleri y\u00fczde 0.70 ile 1 aras\u0131ndaym\u0131\u015f. Yani, yeni ankette ekonomistler ocak ay\u0131 i\u00e7in daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, \u015fubat ay\u0131 i\u00e7in ise daha hissedilir bir tahmin iyile\u015ftirmesi yapm\u0131\u015flar.<\/span><\/p>

2019 ocak ay\u0131 enflasyonu y\u00fczde 1.06 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bu nedenle, ekonomistlerin 2020 ocak ay\u0131 enflasyon oranlar\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 1 ile 1.1 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki tahminleri, son 2 y\u0131ldaki ocak ay\u0131 enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131n tekrarlanaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durumda, 3 \u015eubat Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan ocak ay\u0131 enflasyonu y\u00fczde 1\u2019in alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rsa, y\u00fczde 11.84 olan y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f man\u015fet enflasyon 2020\u2019ye gerileyerek ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olacak. Bu noktada, 2020\u2019in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde, enflasyonun seyri kritik \u00f6nemde olacak ve TCMB \u00fcst y\u00f6netimi de enflasyonun seyrini yak\u0131ndan g\u00f6zlemleyerek ve analiz ederek ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecektir.<\/span><\/p>

TCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu, enflasyon beklentilerindeki iyile\u015fmeyi de dikkate alarak, 2019\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi \u2018\u00f6nden y\u00fcklemeli\u2019 faiz indirimleriyle kendisine bir hareket alan\u0131 a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6zlemleyerek, 2020\u2019ye 0.75 puanl\u0131k \u2018\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc\u2019 bir faiz indirimiyle ba\u015flamay\u0131 tercih etti. Finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fc profesyonellerinin ve ekonomistlerin \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131 faiz indirimi beklentisini 1 puan civar\u0131nda telaffuz etmelerine ra\u011fmen, TCMB \u2018temkinli\u2019 ve \u2018dezenflasyon s\u00fcreci\u2019ne kararl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde devam etti\u011fini teyit eden bir ad\u0131m att\u0131. Enflasyonda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 trendin kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesine kadar TCMB temkinli duru\u015funu aynen s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte kararl\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

TCMB\u2019nin \u2018dezenflasyon s\u00fcreci\u2019ndeki kararl\u0131 duru\u015funu; fiyat ve finansal istikrara y\u00f6nelik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 ayn\u0131 kararl\u0131l\u0131kla s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini teyit eden 0.75 puanl\u0131k \u2018\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc\u2019 indirim karar\u0131, piyasalarca da olumlu kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde de \u2018istikrar\u2019\u0131 devam ettirici bir pozitif etkide bulundu\u011fu da g\u00f6zlendi. Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde, Borsa \u0130stanbul\u2019un y\u0131la rekorlarla ba\u015flamas\u0131 noktas\u0131nda, hisse senedi piyasas\u0131ndaki performans\u0131 da olumlu y\u00f6nde etkiledi. <\/span><\/p>

ABD-\u0130ran gerginli\u011fi ilk andaki temposunu kaybederken, Hafter\u2019in \u2018ate\u015fkes\u2019e haz\u0131r oldu\u011fu mesaj\u0131 da teyit edilir ise k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sakinle\u015fme, TCMB\u2019nin enflasyonla m\u00fccadelesini olumlu y\u00f6nde etkileyecektir. Bu nedenle, ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi \u2018temkinli\u2019, \u2018\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc\u2019 ge\u00e7irecek TCMB PPK, yaz aylar\u0131nda ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131racak.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"2019-buyumesi-yuzde-05-olabilir","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2019 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 0.5 olabilir","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":698,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":21513,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":21414,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"2019 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 0.5 olabilir","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin<\/span><\/strong>
<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2019\u2019un son \u00e7eyre\u011fini nas\u0131l bir performansla kapatm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine dair analizlerimize katk\u0131 sa\u011flayacak veriler, sanayi \u00fcretimi ve sekt\u00f6rlerin g\u00fcven endeksi verileri, 2019\u2019da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0.5\u2019lik bir art\u0131\u015f dahi yakalam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u015eubat ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda netlik kazanacak olan 2019 sanayi \u00fcretim performans\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olarak, son a\u00e7\u0131klanan kas\u0131m ay\u0131 verisi, aral\u0131k ay\u0131n\u0131 da rekor bir ihracat rakam\u0131yla kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde sanayi \u00fcretiminin 2018\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 5 ve \u00fczerinde bir art\u0131\u015f yakalam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fini teyit ediyor.<\/span><\/p>

Bu durum, 2019\u2019un son \u00e7eyre\u011finde, y\u00fczde 5, hatta \u00fcst\u00fcn\u00fc bile zorlayabilecek bir \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nemlik sanayi \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla, GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 3.5 ile 4.5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fine dair olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. <\/span><\/p>

Bu durumda, son \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n bu d\u00fczeyi yakalamas\u0131 halinde, t\u00fcm 2019 i\u00e7in GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 rahatl\u0131kla 0.35 ile 0.5 aras\u0131 bir \u00e7\u0131tada y\u0131l\u0131 tamamlayabilir. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 verisi, s\u00f6z konusu tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n u\u00e7 noktas\u0131 olan y\u00fczde 0.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 yakalama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit edebilir. Nitekim, TCMB\u2019nin ayl\u0131k beklenti anketine kat\u0131lan 100\u2019e yak\u0131n ekonomistin, ekim ay\u0131 beklenti anketinde t\u00fcm 2019 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 0.1 iken, aral\u0131k anketinde tahminlerinin ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 0.4\u2019e kadar y\u00fckselmi\u015fti ve tahminlerin \u00e7o\u011fu y\u00fczde 0.5\u2019e i\u015faret ediyordu.<\/span><\/p>

Sonbahardan bu yana, illerin \u00fcretim, istihdam ve yat\u0131r\u0131m performanslar\u0131n\u0131 ve il ekonomisinin nabz\u0131n\u0131 tutmak \u00fczere i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131yla sahada bulu\u015fmalar ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiren Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 Berat Albayrak, \u015fehir \u015fehir sanayicileri dinleyerek, illerin sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zerek, sahada katma de\u011ferli, istihdam ve ihracata dayal\u0131 \u00fcretimin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7acak ad\u0131mlar att\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ve bu ad\u0131mlarla birlikte, son a\u00e7\u0131klanan kas\u0131m ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretim verilerinin de sanayi \u00fcretiminde arzu edilen ivmelenmeye ad\u0131m ad\u0131m ilerlediklerine i\u015faret etti\u011fini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bakan Albayrak, 2020\u2019de \u00fcretim ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok daha ileri ta\u015f\u0131yacaklar\u0131n\u0131 da vurguluyor.<\/span><\/p>

Bakan Albayrak\u2019\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli nokta, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin uluslararas\u0131 piyasalarda tahvil risk primi oran\u0131 olan CDS\u2019lerin may\u0131s 2018\u2019den bu yana, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n da ocak 2017\u2019den bu yana en iyi de\u011ferlerine gelmi\u015f olmas\u0131. \u2018Dengeleme-Disiplin-De\u011fi\u015fim\u2019 d\u00f6nemi 1.5 y\u0131ldan daha k\u0131sa bir d\u00f6nem i\u00e7erisinde, CDS\u2019lerde 320 puan, tahvil faizlerinde ise 1755 baz puanl\u0131k iyile\u015fme ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 yakalad\u0131. A\u011fustos ve 2018 eyl\u00fclde, bu ba\u015far\u0131n\u0131n yakalanaca\u011f\u0131 Bakan Albayrak taraf\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde vurgulan\u0131rken, \u2018felaket tellall\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019 yar\u0131\u015f\u0131na girmi\u015f ekonomistler, bug\u00fcn ya \u2018sus pus\u2019 durumundalar; ya da \u2018marjinalle\u015fmi\u015f muhalefet\u2019le itibar kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyorlar. 2020\u2019de reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn finansman yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rmay\u0131 da tamamlarsak, 2023\u2019e kadar etkili bir \u2018s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u2019 trendi yakalam\u0131\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>

TCMB \u2018\u00d6L\u00c7\u00dcL\u00dc \u0130ND\u0130R\u0130M\u2019\u0130 TERC\u0130H ETT\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

TCMB\u2019nin aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan beklenti anketinde, ocak ay\u0131 i\u00e7in 100\u2019e yak\u0131n ekonomistin ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131, yani t\u00fcketici enflasyonu beklentisi y\u00fczde 0.82 ile 1.16 aras\u0131ndayd\u0131. Tahminler y\u00fczde 1 ile 1.13 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na yo\u011funla\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyordu. Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan ocak ay\u0131 beklenti anketinde ise ayn\u0131 tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 1 ile 1.1\u2019e yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. Ekonomistlerin \u015fubat ay\u0131 enflasyon tahminleri ise y\u00fczde 0.40 ile 0.65 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u015fekillenmi\u015f. Ekonomistlerin aral\u0131k ay\u0131 beklenti anketinde, bu y\u0131l\u0131n \u015fubat ay\u0131 enflasyonu i\u00e7in tahminleri y\u00fczde 0.70 ile 1 aras\u0131ndaym\u0131\u015f. Yani, yeni ankette ekonomistler ocak ay\u0131 i\u00e7in daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, \u015fubat ay\u0131 i\u00e7in ise daha hissedilir bir tahmin iyile\u015ftirmesi yapm\u0131\u015flar.<\/span><\/p>

2019 ocak ay\u0131 enflasyonu y\u00fczde 1.06 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bu nedenle, ekonomistlerin 2020 ocak ay\u0131 enflasyon oranlar\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 1 ile 1.1 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki tahminleri, son 2 y\u0131ldaki ocak ay\u0131 enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131n tekrarlanaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durumda, 3 \u015eubat Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan ocak ay\u0131 enflasyonu y\u00fczde 1\u2019in alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rsa, y\u00fczde 11.84 olan y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f man\u015fet enflasyon 2020\u2019ye gerileyerek ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olacak. Bu noktada, 2020\u2019in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde, enflasyonun seyri kritik \u00f6nemde olacak ve TCMB \u00fcst y\u00f6netimi de enflasyonun seyrini yak\u0131ndan g\u00f6zlemleyerek ve analiz ederek ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecektir.<\/span><\/p>

TCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu, enflasyon beklentilerindeki iyile\u015fmeyi de dikkate alarak, 2019\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi \u2018\u00f6nden y\u00fcklemeli\u2019 faiz indirimleriyle kendisine bir hareket alan\u0131 a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6zlemleyerek, 2020\u2019ye 0.75 puanl\u0131k \u2018\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc\u2019 bir faiz indirimiyle ba\u015flamay\u0131 tercih etti. Finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fc profesyonellerinin ve ekonomistlerin \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131 faiz indirimi beklentisini 1 puan civar\u0131nda telaffuz etmelerine ra\u011fmen, TCMB \u2018temkinli\u2019 ve \u2018dezenflasyon s\u00fcreci\u2019ne kararl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde devam etti\u011fini teyit eden bir ad\u0131m att\u0131. Enflasyonda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 trendin kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesine kadar TCMB temkinli duru\u015funu aynen s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte kararl\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

TCMB\u2019nin \u2018dezenflasyon s\u00fcreci\u2019ndeki kararl\u0131 duru\u015funu; fiyat ve finansal istikrara y\u00f6nelik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 ayn\u0131 kararl\u0131l\u0131kla s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini teyit eden 0.75 puanl\u0131k \u2018\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc\u2019 indirim karar\u0131, piyasalarca da olumlu kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde de \u2018istikrar\u2019\u0131 devam ettirici bir pozitif etkide bulundu\u011fu da g\u00f6zlendi. Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde, Borsa \u0130stanbul\u2019un y\u0131la rekorlarla ba\u015flamas\u0131 noktas\u0131nda, hisse senedi piyasas\u0131ndaki performans\u0131 da olumlu y\u00f6nde etkiledi. <\/span><\/p>

ABD-\u0130ran gerginli\u011fi ilk andaki temposunu kaybederken, Hafter\u2019in \u2018ate\u015fkes\u2019e haz\u0131r oldu\u011fu mesaj\u0131 da teyit edilir ise k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sakinle\u015fme, TCMB\u2019nin enflasyonla m\u00fccadelesini olumlu y\u00f6nde etkileyecektir. Bu nedenle, ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi \u2018temkinli\u2019, \u2018\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc\u2019 ge\u00e7irecek TCMB PPK, yaz aylar\u0131nda ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131racak.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"2019-buyumesi-yuzde-05-olabilir","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2019 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 0.5 olabilir","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":698,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}