{"status":true,"post":{"id":15628,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 09:59:46","created_at":"2017-01-08T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T06:59:46.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":15628,"is_featured":0,"title":"2017 y\u0131l\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Bir y\u0131l\u0131 daha geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k ve 2017\u2019ye girdik. Bu hafta da 2017\u2019de T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisindeki beklentilerimi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da payla\u015f\u0131yorum: <\/span><\/p>

1. T\u00fcrkiye 2017\u2019ye olduk\u00e7a yo\u011fun bir siyasi, jeopolitik ve d\u0131\u015f politik g\u00fcndem ile girdi. <\/span><\/strong><\/p>

2. 2017\u2019de Ba\u015fkanl\u0131k sistemine ge\u00e7i\u015fi \u00f6ng\u00f6ren Anayasa de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin referanduma sunulmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bulunuyor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda siyaset ekonominin \u00f6n\u00fcnde olabilecek.<\/span><\/p>

3. Suriye ve Irak\u2019taki geli\u015fmeler, s\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riskini i\u00e7eriyor. \u00d6zellikle turizm sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, 2017\u2019de de bu geli\u015fmelerden olumsuz etkilenecek. <\/span><\/strong><\/p>

4. AB ile tam \u00fcyelik m\u00fczakerelerinin yerine di\u011fer se\u00e7eneklerin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 kuvvetleniyor. ABD ile ili\u015fkiler yeniden \u015fekillenecek. Ancak ABD\u2019de Trump ve yeni y\u00f6netimin, T\u00fcrkiye tavr\u0131 hen\u00fcz net de\u011fil. <\/span><\/p>

5. Ekonomide 15 Temmuz sonras\u0131 ba\u015flayan yava\u015flama, \u00f6deme ve tahsilatlarda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k ve banka-reel sekt\u00f6r ili\u015fkilerindeki kat\u0131la\u015fma 2017\u2019ye de sark\u0131yor. 2016\u2019da ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.5 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek. <\/span><\/strong><\/p>

6. Ekonomide h\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u00f6nceli\u011fi para ve maliye politikas\u0131 ile ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemek olacak. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin tetikleyicisi kamu yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f olacak. Kamu yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 y\u00fczde 18 artarak 80 milyar TL\u2019ye y\u00fckselecek. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ise mevcut risk ortam\u0131nda zay\u0131f kalmaya devam edecek. <\/span><\/p>

7. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin 2017\u2019de ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi y\u00fczde 4.4\u2019t\u00fcr. Muhtemelen y\u00fczde<\/span><\/strong>3.0-3.5 aras\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek. <\/span><\/strong><\/p>

8. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k 2017\u2019de 38-40 milyar dolar ile y\u00f6netilebilir kalacak ancak cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olacak. Turizm gelirleri ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131 belirleyici olacak. <\/span><\/p>

9. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin riskini yans\u0131tan CDS oranlar\u0131 son be\u015f y\u0131ld\u0131r kas\u0131mda ikinci kez 300 puana y\u00fckseldi. 15 Temmuz darbe giri\u015fiminde dahi 280 puana kadar y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin risk primindeki art\u0131\u015f, bor\u00e7lanma olanaklar\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor, bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini y\u00fckseltiyor.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

10. D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak enflasyon y\u00fckselme e\u011filimine girecek. T\u00fcketici enflasyonu 2016 sonunda y\u00fczde 8.5 olmu\u015ftu. 2017 hedefi y\u00fczde 6.5\u2019dir. Muhtemelen y\u00fczde 9.0-10.0 aras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek.<\/span><\/p>

11. Merkez Bankas\u0131 olu\u015fan k\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar, artan riskler ve y\u00fckselen enflasyon nedeniyle faizleri art\u0131rmak zorunda kalacak. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde Fed faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve TL \u00fczerindeki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle faizler 2017\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olacak. Merkez Bankas\u0131, TL likiditeyi ise geni\u015fletmeye devam edecek. <\/span><\/strong><\/p>

12. Bankalar ile reel sekt\u00f6r aras\u0131nda kredi ili\u015fkileri yine zorlu olacak. Y\u0131ll\u0131k kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi (kur art\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f) y\u00fczde 10-12 aras\u0131nda kalacak. <\/span><\/p>

13. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrecek. Sepet kur y\u0131lsonunda 3.62 seviyesinden kapanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yeni y\u0131lda da y\u00fczde 8-10 aras\u0131nda y\u00fckselme beklentisi bulunuyor. <\/span><\/strong><\/p>

14. H\u00fck\u00fcmet son aylarda \u00f6nemli te\u015fvik unsurlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Ekonomiyi destekleyecek olan bu desteklerden reel sekt\u00f6r firmalar\u0131 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda mutlaka yararlanmal\u0131. <\/span><\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> 2017\u2019de \u00f6zellikle y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda daha tedbirli, ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda \u0130SE f\u0131rsatlara haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"2017-yili-turkiye-ekonomisi-ongoruleri","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2017 y\u0131l\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":147,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":15727,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":15628,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"2017 y\u0131l\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Bir y\u0131l\u0131 daha geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k ve 2017\u2019ye girdik. Bu hafta da 2017\u2019de T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisindeki beklentilerimi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da payla\u015f\u0131yorum: <\/span><\/p>

1. T\u00fcrkiye 2017\u2019ye olduk\u00e7a yo\u011fun bir siyasi, jeopolitik ve d\u0131\u015f politik g\u00fcndem ile girdi. <\/span><\/strong><\/p>

2. 2017\u2019de Ba\u015fkanl\u0131k sistemine ge\u00e7i\u015fi \u00f6ng\u00f6ren Anayasa de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin referanduma sunulmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bulunuyor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda siyaset ekonominin \u00f6n\u00fcnde olabilecek.<\/span><\/p>

3. Suriye ve Irak\u2019taki geli\u015fmeler, s\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riskini i\u00e7eriyor. \u00d6zellikle turizm sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, 2017\u2019de de bu geli\u015fmelerden olumsuz etkilenecek. <\/span><\/strong><\/p>

4. AB ile tam \u00fcyelik m\u00fczakerelerinin yerine di\u011fer se\u00e7eneklerin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 kuvvetleniyor. ABD ile ili\u015fkiler yeniden \u015fekillenecek. Ancak ABD\u2019de Trump ve yeni y\u00f6netimin, T\u00fcrkiye tavr\u0131 hen\u00fcz net de\u011fil. <\/span><\/p>

5. Ekonomide 15 Temmuz sonras\u0131 ba\u015flayan yava\u015flama, \u00f6deme ve tahsilatlarda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k ve banka-reel sekt\u00f6r ili\u015fkilerindeki kat\u0131la\u015fma 2017\u2019ye de sark\u0131yor. 2016\u2019da ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.5 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek. <\/span><\/strong><\/p>

6. Ekonomide h\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u00f6nceli\u011fi para ve maliye politikas\u0131 ile ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemek olacak. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin tetikleyicisi kamu yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f olacak. Kamu yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 y\u00fczde 18 artarak 80 milyar TL\u2019ye y\u00fckselecek. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ise mevcut risk ortam\u0131nda zay\u0131f kalmaya devam edecek. <\/span><\/p>

7. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin 2017\u2019de ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi y\u00fczde 4.4\u2019t\u00fcr. Muhtemelen y\u00fczde<\/span><\/strong>3.0-3.5 aras\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek. <\/span><\/strong><\/p>

8. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k 2017\u2019de 38-40 milyar dolar ile y\u00f6netilebilir kalacak ancak cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olacak. Turizm gelirleri ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131 belirleyici olacak. <\/span><\/p>

9. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin riskini yans\u0131tan CDS oranlar\u0131 son be\u015f y\u0131ld\u0131r kas\u0131mda ikinci kez 300 puana y\u00fckseldi. 15 Temmuz darbe giri\u015fiminde dahi 280 puana kadar y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin risk primindeki art\u0131\u015f, bor\u00e7lanma olanaklar\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor, bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini y\u00fckseltiyor.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

10. D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak enflasyon y\u00fckselme e\u011filimine girecek. T\u00fcketici enflasyonu 2016 sonunda y\u00fczde 8.5 olmu\u015ftu. 2017 hedefi y\u00fczde 6.5\u2019dir. Muhtemelen y\u00fczde 9.0-10.0 aras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek.<\/span><\/p>

11. Merkez Bankas\u0131 olu\u015fan k\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar, artan riskler ve y\u00fckselen enflasyon nedeniyle faizleri art\u0131rmak zorunda kalacak. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde Fed faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve TL \u00fczerindeki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle faizler 2017\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olacak. Merkez Bankas\u0131, TL likiditeyi ise geni\u015fletmeye devam edecek. <\/span><\/strong><\/p>

12. Bankalar ile reel sekt\u00f6r aras\u0131nda kredi ili\u015fkileri yine zorlu olacak. Y\u0131ll\u0131k kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi (kur art\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f) y\u00fczde 10-12 aras\u0131nda kalacak. <\/span><\/p>

13. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrecek. Sepet kur y\u0131lsonunda 3.62 seviyesinden kapanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yeni y\u0131lda da y\u00fczde 8-10 aras\u0131nda y\u00fckselme beklentisi bulunuyor. <\/span><\/strong><\/p>

14. H\u00fck\u00fcmet son aylarda \u00f6nemli te\u015fvik unsurlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Ekonomiyi destekleyecek olan bu desteklerden reel sekt\u00f6r firmalar\u0131 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda mutlaka yararlanmal\u0131. <\/span><\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> 2017\u2019de \u00f6zellikle y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda daha tedbirli, ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda \u0130SE f\u0131rsatlara haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"2017-yili-turkiye-ekonomisi-ongoruleri","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2017 y\u0131l\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":147,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}