{"status":true,"post":{"id":27361,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 15:31:09","created_at":"2021-07-01T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T12:31:09.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":27361,"is_featured":0,"title":"2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yeni rekor","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Gerek reel kesim g\u00fcven endeksi verisi, gerek kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131, gerekse de nisan ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretim verisi, 2021\u2019in 2. \u00e7eyre\u011finde GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin Cumhuriyet tarihinin en y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f oranlar\u0131ndan birine i\u015faret edece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u015eimdiden bu oran\u0131n y\u00fczde 28-30 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fimi belirtebilirim. Elbette, bu oranlar 2020 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n 2. \u00e7eyre\u011finde, pandemiden kaynaklanan gerilemenin matematiksel d\u00fczeltmesi. Bununla birlikte \u00f6nde gelen geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin belirli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde \u00fcretimin ve ihracat\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 toparlanmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ortaya koydu\u011fu performans uluslararas\u0131 ekonomi \u00e7evreleri taraf\u0131ndan dikkatle takip ediliyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
YATIRIM HARCAMALARINA DEVAM<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Bu do\u011frultuda, ABD men\u015feli uluslararas\u0131 finans kurumu J.P. Morgan, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2021 b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentisini y\u00fczde 6.1\u2019den y\u00fczde 6.8\u2019e y\u00fckseltirken, uluslararas\u0131 derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu S&P de 2021 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fczde 3.6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 6.1\u2019e revize etti. Avrupa Yat\u0131r\u0131m ve Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131 (EBRD) ise 2021 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fczde 5\u2019ten y\u00fczde 5.5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Uluslararas\u0131 ekonomi ve finans kurumlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, pandeminin ortas\u0131nda bu derece y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131, ayn\u0131 zamanda kamu mali dengesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan beklenenden daha iyi bir vergi geliri anlam\u0131na da geliyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
Ayr\u0131ca, Covid-19 olmasayd\u0131 dahi 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda 200 milyar dolar hedefi zor g\u00f6z\u00fcken ihracat hacmimizin, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda 200 milyar dolar hedefine dolu dizgin ko\u015fuyor olmas\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin pandemi s\u00fcrecinde, \u00e7ok daha kuvvetli bir \u015fekilde, \u2018g\u00fcvenilir liman\u2019 tedarik\u00e7i \u00fclke oldu\u011funu bir kez daha kan\u0131tlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit ediyor. Bu nedenle, \u00c7in ve Asya ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere pandemi s\u00fcrecinde tedarik sorunu ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f olan \u00fclkeler sipari\u015flerini T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00f6nlendirmi\u015f durumda. Bu durum, T\u00fcrk reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131na devam etmesi gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na da geliyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
BEKLENT\u0130LER POZ\u0130T\u0130F<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Nitekim, son yay\u0131nlanan Reel Kesim G\u00fcven Endeksi verisinde, yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 ve \u00fcretim hacmi e\u011filimi ve beklentiler son derece pozitif ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, ihracat beklentisinin ve istihdam beklentisinin de hayli pozitif olmas\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda da uluslararas\u0131 ekonomi \u00e7evrelerini \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmaya devam edece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndan bu yana perakende, nisan ay\u0131ndan itibaren de hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc toparlanmay\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131rken, a\u015f\u0131lama oranlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi ve k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n azalmas\u0131, sekt\u00f6rlerdeki toparlanmay\u0131 daha da per\u00e7inleyecek.<\/span>
<\/span>
\u0130malat sanayi kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 ve t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksindeki toparlanmay\u0131 da hesaba katt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, kuvvetle muhtemel, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 verisi \u00e7ok \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olacak gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
K\u00dcRESEL P\u0130YASALARDA \u2018D VARYANTI\u2019 DALGASI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Dolar endeksinin 18 Haziran\u2019da 92 puan\u0131 ge\u00e7mesi ve euro-dolar paritesinin 1.19 dolara gerilemesinin en \u00f6nemli gerek\u00e7esi, k\u00fcresel piyasalardaki \u2018risk i\u015ftah\u0131\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni ise piyasalarda \u2018k\u00f6t\u00fcmser beklenti\u2019lere ge\u00e7ilmi\u015f olmas\u0131. Beklentileri k\u00f6t\u00fcmserle\u015ftiren en kritik ba\u015fl\u0131k, k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n seyrine dair s\u00fcregelen belirsizlik.<\/span>
<\/span>
A\u015f\u0131laman\u0131n beklenenden daha yava\u015f seyretti\u011fi \u00fclkeler nedeniyle salg\u0131n\u0131n sonbaharda yeniden h\u0131z kazanaca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesi. Bilhassa, bu konumdaki \u00fclkelerde yay\u0131lma g\u00fcc\u00fc ve sebep oldu\u011fu riskler nedeniyle Delta varyant\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir ba\u015fl\u0131k olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131zda duruyor. D varyant\u0131n\u0131n sonbaharda 4. veya 5. dalgalanmaya sebep olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131na dair belirsizlik alg\u0131s\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. K\u00fcresel piyasalar, d\u00fcnya genelinde a\u015f\u0131laman\u0131n hangi h\u0131zla ilerleyece\u011fini ve vaka say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n sonbaharla birlikte nas\u0131l seyredece\u011fini g\u00f6rmek istiyor. D\u00fcnya Sa\u011fl\u0131k \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lacak a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, piyasalardaki e\u011filim \u00fczerinde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde de etkili olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"2-ceyrek-buyumede-yeni-rekor","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yeni rekor","meta_description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1064,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":27460,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":27361,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yeni rekor","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Gerek reel kesim g\u00fcven endeksi verisi, gerek kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131, gerekse de nisan ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretim verisi, 2021\u2019in 2. \u00e7eyre\u011finde GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin Cumhuriyet tarihinin en y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f oranlar\u0131ndan birine i\u015faret edece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u015eimdiden bu oran\u0131n y\u00fczde 28-30 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fimi belirtebilirim. Elbette, bu oranlar 2020 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n 2. \u00e7eyre\u011finde, pandemiden kaynaklanan gerilemenin matematiksel d\u00fczeltmesi. Bununla birlikte \u00f6nde gelen geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin belirli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde \u00fcretimin ve ihracat\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 toparlanmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ortaya koydu\u011fu performans uluslararas\u0131 ekonomi \u00e7evreleri taraf\u0131ndan dikkatle takip ediliyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
YATIRIM HARCAMALARINA DEVAM<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Bu do\u011frultuda, ABD men\u015feli uluslararas\u0131 finans kurumu J.P. Morgan, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2021 b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentisini y\u00fczde 6.1\u2019den y\u00fczde 6.8\u2019e y\u00fckseltirken, uluslararas\u0131 derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu S&P de 2021 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fczde 3.6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 6.1\u2019e revize etti. Avrupa Yat\u0131r\u0131m ve Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131 (EBRD) ise 2021 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fczde 5\u2019ten y\u00fczde 5.5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Uluslararas\u0131 ekonomi ve finans kurumlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, pandeminin ortas\u0131nda bu derece y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131, ayn\u0131 zamanda kamu mali dengesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan beklenenden daha iyi bir vergi geliri anlam\u0131na da geliyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
Ayr\u0131ca, Covid-19 olmasayd\u0131 dahi 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda 200 milyar dolar hedefi zor g\u00f6z\u00fcken ihracat hacmimizin, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda 200 milyar dolar hedefine dolu dizgin ko\u015fuyor olmas\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin pandemi s\u00fcrecinde, \u00e7ok daha kuvvetli bir \u015fekilde, \u2018g\u00fcvenilir liman\u2019 tedarik\u00e7i \u00fclke oldu\u011funu bir kez daha kan\u0131tlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit ediyor. Bu nedenle, \u00c7in ve Asya ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere pandemi s\u00fcrecinde tedarik sorunu ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f olan \u00fclkeler sipari\u015flerini T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00f6nlendirmi\u015f durumda. Bu durum, T\u00fcrk reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131na devam etmesi gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na da geliyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
BEKLENT\u0130LER POZ\u0130T\u0130F<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Nitekim, son yay\u0131nlanan Reel Kesim G\u00fcven Endeksi verisinde, yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 ve \u00fcretim hacmi e\u011filimi ve beklentiler son derece pozitif ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, ihracat beklentisinin ve istihdam beklentisinin de hayli pozitif olmas\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda da uluslararas\u0131 ekonomi \u00e7evrelerini \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmaya devam edece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndan bu yana perakende, nisan ay\u0131ndan itibaren de hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc toparlanmay\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131rken, a\u015f\u0131lama oranlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi ve k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n azalmas\u0131, sekt\u00f6rlerdeki toparlanmay\u0131 daha da per\u00e7inleyecek.<\/span>
<\/span>
\u0130malat sanayi kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 ve t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksindeki toparlanmay\u0131 da hesaba katt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, kuvvetle muhtemel, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 verisi \u00e7ok \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olacak gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
K\u00dcRESEL P\u0130YASALARDA \u2018D VARYANTI\u2019 DALGASI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Dolar endeksinin 18 Haziran\u2019da 92 puan\u0131 ge\u00e7mesi ve euro-dolar paritesinin 1.19 dolara gerilemesinin en \u00f6nemli gerek\u00e7esi, k\u00fcresel piyasalardaki \u2018risk i\u015ftah\u0131\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni ise piyasalarda \u2018k\u00f6t\u00fcmser beklenti\u2019lere ge\u00e7ilmi\u015f olmas\u0131. Beklentileri k\u00f6t\u00fcmserle\u015ftiren en kritik ba\u015fl\u0131k, k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n seyrine dair s\u00fcregelen belirsizlik.<\/span>
<\/span>
A\u015f\u0131laman\u0131n beklenenden daha yava\u015f seyretti\u011fi \u00fclkeler nedeniyle salg\u0131n\u0131n sonbaharda yeniden h\u0131z kazanaca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesi. Bilhassa, bu konumdaki \u00fclkelerde yay\u0131lma g\u00fcc\u00fc ve sebep oldu\u011fu riskler nedeniyle Delta varyant\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir ba\u015fl\u0131k olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131zda duruyor. D varyant\u0131n\u0131n sonbaharda 4. veya 5. dalgalanmaya sebep olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131na dair belirsizlik alg\u0131s\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. K\u00fcresel piyasalar, d\u00fcnya genelinde a\u015f\u0131laman\u0131n hangi h\u0131zla ilerleyece\u011fini ve vaka say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n sonbaharla birlikte nas\u0131l seyredece\u011fini g\u00f6rmek istiyor. D\u00fcnya Sa\u011fl\u0131k \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lacak a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, piyasalardaki e\u011filim \u00fczerinde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde de etkili olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"2-ceyrek-buyumede-yeni-rekor","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yeni rekor","meta_description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1064,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}