{"status":true,"post":{"id":12932,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 09:20:38","created_at":"2016-01-24T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T06:20:38.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":12932,"is_featured":0,"title":"15 g\u00fcnde bile trendler de\u011fi\u015fiyor","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">K\u00fcresel finans krizinin ilk faz\u0131 tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2009\u2019un sonbahar\u0131na geldi\u011fimizde, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde mutab\u0131k kald\u0131klar\u0131 toparlanma s\u00fcreci, iktisat literat\u00fcr\u00fcnde \u2018W\u2019 olarak tan\u0131mlanan bir toparlanma s\u00fcreci olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmekteydi. Nitekim, 2009\u2019un son \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren ba\u015fta T\u00fcrkiye olmak \u00fczere, \u00fclkeler k\u00fcresel krizin ana etkisinden kurtulmaya ve toparlanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131lar ve 2010\u2019da \u2018W\u2019nin ilk \u2018V\u2019sinde tepe g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Sonra 2011 ortalar\u0131ndan itibaren, di\u011fer \u2018V\u2019nin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 do\u011fru ini\u015f k\u0131sm\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131 ve bunun da 2012 sonunda tamamlanarak, 2013\u2019te tekrar yukar\u0131 do\u011fru \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 umut ediliyordu. Ancak o toparlanma bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc gelmedi ve hem k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme hem de k\u00fcresel ticaret ivme kaybetmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 4\u2019lerin \u00fczerinden, y\u00fczde 3\u2019lerin alt\u0131na gelirken, k\u00fcresel ticaretteki ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme de y\u00fczde 7\u2019lerden, negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye t\u00fcm bu \u2018k\u00fcresel s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma\u2019 tablosuna ra\u011fmen, 2014\u2019te y\u00fczde 2.9 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek, \u00c7in ve Hindistan hari\u00e7 y\u00fczde 1.7 d\u00fczeyindeki t\u00fcm geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomiler ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n 1.2 puan \u00fczerinde kalarak, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte b\u00fcy\u00fcme ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u2018pozitif\u2019 ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. 2015\u2019te d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 2.5 ve Orta ve Do\u011fu Avrupa i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3, BDT \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7in -2.7, Latin Amerika i\u00e7in -0.3 iken, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2015\u2019i y\u00fczde 3 beklenirken, y\u00fczde 4\u2019l\u00fck bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile bitirmi\u015f olma ihtimali, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bu nedenle T\u00fcrkiye b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 3.2\u2019den y\u00fczde 4.2\u2019ye y\u00fckseltmi\u015f olmas\u0131 anlaml\u0131. Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi 2016 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden s\u00f6z ederken, Latin Amerika i\u00e7in sadece y\u00fczde 0.6 ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da dahil Do\u011fu Avrupa i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 1.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme hikayesi ile \u2018k\u00fcresel s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma\u2019dan kendini s\u0131y\u0131rabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. IMF\u2019in 2016 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 3.4\u2019e \u00e7ekti\u011fi bir ortamda, T\u00fcrkiye uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, h\u00e2l\u00e2 bir \u2018b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u2019 hikayesi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermeli. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, t\u0131rmand\u0131r\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan ter\u00f6r ve \u2018alg\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131\u2019na ra\u011fmen, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u2018sat\u0131n al\u0131nabilecek\u2019 bir \u2018b\u00fcy\u00fcme hikayesi var.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>\u00c7\u00d6Z\u00dcM PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KASINDA DE\u011e\u0130L<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">19 Ocak Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen TCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan, faiz koridoru \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00fckselten, alt band\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eken bir ad\u0131m bekliyordum. Bunun anlam\u0131, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u2018para talep etmek i\u00e7in bana gelmeyin, paran\u0131z\u0131 da bana depolamay\u0131n\u2019 olacakt\u0131. Fonksiyonel olarak etkinli\u011fini kaybetmi\u015f olan, 1 haftal\u0131k repo faiz oran\u0131 tan\u0131ml\u0131, para politikas\u0131 temel faiz oran\u0131 ise TCMB\u2019nin kararl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermek ad\u0131na 0.5 puan y\u00fckseltilebilirdi. Neticede, TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na da gerek yok. Ayr\u0131ca bu ad\u0131mlar TL likiditesinin maliyeti \u00fczerinde g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr bir etkiye sebep olmayacakt\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00f6zler art\u0131k TCMB\u2019nin ne yapaca\u011f\u0131ndan \u00e7ok, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn finansman maliyetlerinin yumu\u015fat\u0131lmas\u0131na d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f durumda. Bu da hafta sonundaki yaz\u0131mda da belirtti\u011fim \u00fczere, esas bir TCMB-BDDK \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na, zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar ve kamu kesintilerine y\u00f6nelik bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya dayan\u0131yor. Yoksa ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (FED) bu y\u0131l ikiden fazla faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n hayli zora girdi\u011fi ve FED yetkililerinin, vadesi gelen tahvilleri \u00e7evirerek, FED bilan\u00e7o b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ayn\u0131 d\u00fczeyde tutmaktan s\u00f6z ettikleri bir ortamda, TCMB \u00fcst y\u00f6netimi \u2018bekle-g\u00f6r\u2019\u00fc tercih ediyor, g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>EURO\u2019YA D\u0130KKAT<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Yakla\u015f\u0131k, 2 y\u0131ld\u0131r Euro-dolar paritesinin 1.36 dolar d\u00fczeyinden, 1.05 dolar d\u00fczeyinin de alt\u0131n\u0131 test edebilece\u011fi bir s\u00fcrece y\u00f6nelik olarak, T\u00fcrk i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 i\u00e7in Euro cinsinden bor\u00e7lanman\u0131n taktiksel olarak do\u011fru oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ve \u00f6nerilerimi payla\u015ft\u0131m. Bununla birlikte y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ya\u015fanan h\u0131zl\u0131 geli\u015fmeler ve k\u00fcresel ticaretteki t\u0131kanmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, \u00f6nde gelen geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda \u2018kirli kur sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden h\u0131z kazanmas\u0131, ABD ekonomi y\u00f6netimi ve FED a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli de\u011ferlendirmeleri de beraberinde getirmi\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/span><span class=\"large\">Bu nedenle, Euro-dolar paritesini 1.12-1.08 dolar band\u0131nda tutacak bir s\u00fcre\u00e7ten, ABD taktiksel olarak, Euro-dolar paritesinin 1.12-1.16 dolar band\u0131na do\u011fru bir \u00fcst banda ge\u00e7irilece\u011fi bir s\u00fcreci de\u011ferlendiriyor olabilir. Uzmanlar, Euro-dolar paritesinin 1.15 dolar d\u00fczeyine y\u00fckselmesi riskine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak, Euro\u2019nun de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek ad\u0131na, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilkbaharda, kesece\u011fini iddia etti\u011fi parasal geni\u015flemeye olanca co\u015fkuyla devam etmeyi g\u00f6ze alabilece\u011finden bahsetmekteler.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>26-27 OCAK \u0130LK FED TOPLANTISINA D\u0130KKAT<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Kimi FED yetkililerinin \u20183, 4 hatta 5 kez faiz art\u0131rabiliriz\u2019 gibi k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 ifadelerine ra\u011fmen, ilk sinyal 13 Ocak \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD eski Hazine Bakan\u0131 Larry Summers\u2019dan geldi ve Summers, k\u00fcresel ekonominin 2016\u2019da 4 kez FED faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na dayanamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti. Summers, \u00c7in ekonomik modelinde d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015farsa bile, risklerin devam edece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f bildirdi.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">19 Ocak Sal\u0131, eski FED Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bernanke, Hong Kong\u2019daki Asya Finansal Forumu\u2019nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi konu\u015fmas\u0131nda, dolardaki potansiyel de\u011fer kazan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f olabilece\u011fini ve k\u00fcresel piyasalar\u0131n ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda daha fazla de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6remeyebilece\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.<\/span><span class=\"large\">Bu geli\u015fmeler, ocak ay\u0131 sonundaki FED toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kan mesajlar do\u011frultusunda, FED\u2019in 2016\u2019da iki kez daha faiz art\u0131rabilmesi i\u00e7in hayli dikkatli davranaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eder ise, Euro-dolar paritesinde yukar\u0131 do\u011fru hareket ihtimali kuvvetlenebilir. Keza, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta New York FED Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Dudley\u2019in, FED\u2019in vadesi gelen ABD tahvillerinin t\u00fcm\u00fc kadar yeni tahvil alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmesi ve FED\u2019in bilan\u00e7o b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc koruyacaklar\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelen s\u00f6zleri de not al\u0131nd\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu durumda, Euro-dolar paritesinin 1.12-1.08 dolar band\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131rarak, \u00f6nce 1.08-1.04 dolar, ard\u0131nda da 1.04-1.00 dolar band\u0131na ge\u00e7ece\u011fine dair beklentilerin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi ve bu nedenle T\u00fcrk i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 i\u00e7in Euro cinsinden bor\u00e7lanman\u0131n en az 1.5 y\u0131l daha cazip olabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentileri acilen g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmek ve Euro-dolar paritesinde, \u2018kirli kur sava\u015f\u0131\u2019na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 2016 i\u00e7in ortalama 1.12 dolar seviyesinde bir parite de\u011ferini dikkate almam\u0131z gerekebilir. Bu nedenle, 26-27 Ocak ilk FED toplant\u0131s\u0131na aman dikkat edelim.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"15-gunde-bile-trendler-degisiyor","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"15 g\u00fcnde bile trendler de\u011fi\u015fiyor","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":96,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":13031,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":12932,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"15 g\u00fcnde bile trendler de\u011fi\u015fiyor","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">K\u00fcresel finans krizinin ilk faz\u0131 tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2009\u2019un sonbahar\u0131na geldi\u011fimizde, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde mutab\u0131k kald\u0131klar\u0131 toparlanma s\u00fcreci, iktisat literat\u00fcr\u00fcnde \u2018W\u2019 olarak tan\u0131mlanan bir toparlanma s\u00fcreci olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmekteydi. Nitekim, 2009\u2019un son \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren ba\u015fta T\u00fcrkiye olmak \u00fczere, \u00fclkeler k\u00fcresel krizin ana etkisinden kurtulmaya ve toparlanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131lar ve 2010\u2019da \u2018W\u2019nin ilk \u2018V\u2019sinde tepe g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Sonra 2011 ortalar\u0131ndan itibaren, di\u011fer \u2018V\u2019nin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 do\u011fru ini\u015f k\u0131sm\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131 ve bunun da 2012 sonunda tamamlanarak, 2013\u2019te tekrar yukar\u0131 do\u011fru \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 umut ediliyordu. Ancak o toparlanma bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc gelmedi ve hem k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme hem de k\u00fcresel ticaret ivme kaybetmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 4\u2019lerin \u00fczerinden, y\u00fczde 3\u2019lerin alt\u0131na gelirken, k\u00fcresel ticaretteki ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme de y\u00fczde 7\u2019lerden, negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye t\u00fcm bu \u2018k\u00fcresel s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma\u2019 tablosuna ra\u011fmen, 2014\u2019te y\u00fczde 2.9 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek, \u00c7in ve Hindistan hari\u00e7 y\u00fczde 1.7 d\u00fczeyindeki t\u00fcm geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomiler ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n 1.2 puan \u00fczerinde kalarak, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte b\u00fcy\u00fcme ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u2018pozitif\u2019 ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. 2015\u2019te d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 2.5 ve Orta ve Do\u011fu Avrupa i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3, BDT \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7in -2.7, Latin Amerika i\u00e7in -0.3 iken, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2015\u2019i y\u00fczde 3 beklenirken, y\u00fczde 4\u2019l\u00fck bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile bitirmi\u015f olma ihtimali, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bu nedenle T\u00fcrkiye b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 3.2\u2019den y\u00fczde 4.2\u2019ye y\u00fckseltmi\u015f olmas\u0131 anlaml\u0131. Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi 2016 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden s\u00f6z ederken, Latin Amerika i\u00e7in sadece y\u00fczde 0.6 ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da dahil Do\u011fu Avrupa i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 1.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme hikayesi ile \u2018k\u00fcresel s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma\u2019dan kendini s\u0131y\u0131rabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. IMF\u2019in 2016 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 3.4\u2019e \u00e7ekti\u011fi bir ortamda, T\u00fcrkiye uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, h\u00e2l\u00e2 bir \u2018b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u2019 hikayesi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermeli. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, t\u0131rmand\u0131r\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan ter\u00f6r ve \u2018alg\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131\u2019na ra\u011fmen, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u2018sat\u0131n al\u0131nabilecek\u2019 bir \u2018b\u00fcy\u00fcme hikayesi var.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>\u00c7\u00d6Z\u00dcM PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KASINDA DE\u011e\u0130L<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">19 Ocak Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen TCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan, faiz koridoru \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00fckselten, alt band\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eken bir ad\u0131m bekliyordum. Bunun anlam\u0131, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u2018para talep etmek i\u00e7in bana gelmeyin, paran\u0131z\u0131 da bana depolamay\u0131n\u2019 olacakt\u0131. Fonksiyonel olarak etkinli\u011fini kaybetmi\u015f olan, 1 haftal\u0131k repo faiz oran\u0131 tan\u0131ml\u0131, para politikas\u0131 temel faiz oran\u0131 ise TCMB\u2019nin kararl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermek ad\u0131na 0.5 puan y\u00fckseltilebilirdi. Neticede, TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na da gerek yok. Ayr\u0131ca bu ad\u0131mlar TL likiditesinin maliyeti \u00fczerinde g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr bir etkiye sebep olmayacakt\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00f6zler art\u0131k TCMB\u2019nin ne yapaca\u011f\u0131ndan \u00e7ok, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn finansman maliyetlerinin yumu\u015fat\u0131lmas\u0131na d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f durumda. Bu da hafta sonundaki yaz\u0131mda da belirtti\u011fim \u00fczere, esas bir TCMB-BDDK \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na, zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar ve kamu kesintilerine y\u00f6nelik bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya dayan\u0131yor. Yoksa ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (FED) bu y\u0131l ikiden fazla faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n hayli zora girdi\u011fi ve FED yetkililerinin, vadesi gelen tahvilleri \u00e7evirerek, FED bilan\u00e7o b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ayn\u0131 d\u00fczeyde tutmaktan s\u00f6z ettikleri bir ortamda, TCMB \u00fcst y\u00f6netimi \u2018bekle-g\u00f6r\u2019\u00fc tercih ediyor, g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>EURO\u2019YA D\u0130KKAT<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Yakla\u015f\u0131k, 2 y\u0131ld\u0131r Euro-dolar paritesinin 1.36 dolar d\u00fczeyinden, 1.05 dolar d\u00fczeyinin de alt\u0131n\u0131 test edebilece\u011fi bir s\u00fcrece y\u00f6nelik olarak, T\u00fcrk i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 i\u00e7in Euro cinsinden bor\u00e7lanman\u0131n taktiksel olarak do\u011fru oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ve \u00f6nerilerimi payla\u015ft\u0131m. Bununla birlikte y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ya\u015fanan h\u0131zl\u0131 geli\u015fmeler ve k\u00fcresel ticaretteki t\u0131kanmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, \u00f6nde gelen geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda \u2018kirli kur sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden h\u0131z kazanmas\u0131, ABD ekonomi y\u00f6netimi ve FED a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli de\u011ferlendirmeleri de beraberinde getirmi\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/span><span class=\"large\">Bu nedenle, Euro-dolar paritesini 1.12-1.08 dolar band\u0131nda tutacak bir s\u00fcre\u00e7ten, ABD taktiksel olarak, Euro-dolar paritesinin 1.12-1.16 dolar band\u0131na do\u011fru bir \u00fcst banda ge\u00e7irilece\u011fi bir s\u00fcreci de\u011ferlendiriyor olabilir. Uzmanlar, Euro-dolar paritesinin 1.15 dolar d\u00fczeyine y\u00fckselmesi riskine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak, Euro\u2019nun de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek ad\u0131na, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilkbaharda, kesece\u011fini iddia etti\u011fi parasal geni\u015flemeye olanca co\u015fkuyla devam etmeyi g\u00f6ze alabilece\u011finden bahsetmekteler.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>26-27 OCAK \u0130LK FED TOPLANTISINA D\u0130KKAT<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Kimi FED yetkililerinin \u20183, 4 hatta 5 kez faiz art\u0131rabiliriz\u2019 gibi k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 ifadelerine ra\u011fmen, ilk sinyal 13 Ocak \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD eski Hazine Bakan\u0131 Larry Summers\u2019dan geldi ve Summers, k\u00fcresel ekonominin 2016\u2019da 4 kez FED faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na dayanamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti. Summers, \u00c7in ekonomik modelinde d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015farsa bile, risklerin devam edece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f bildirdi.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">19 Ocak Sal\u0131, eski FED Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bernanke, Hong Kong\u2019daki Asya Finansal Forumu\u2019nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi konu\u015fmas\u0131nda, dolardaki potansiyel de\u011fer kazan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f olabilece\u011fini ve k\u00fcresel piyasalar\u0131n ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda daha fazla de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6remeyebilece\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.<\/span><span class=\"large\">Bu geli\u015fmeler, ocak ay\u0131 sonundaki FED toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kan mesajlar do\u011frultusunda, FED\u2019in 2016\u2019da iki kez daha faiz art\u0131rabilmesi i\u00e7in hayli dikkatli davranaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eder ise, Euro-dolar paritesinde yukar\u0131 do\u011fru hareket ihtimali kuvvetlenebilir. Keza, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta New York FED Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Dudley\u2019in, FED\u2019in vadesi gelen ABD tahvillerinin t\u00fcm\u00fc kadar yeni tahvil alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmesi ve FED\u2019in bilan\u00e7o b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc koruyacaklar\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelen s\u00f6zleri de not al\u0131nd\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu durumda, Euro-dolar paritesinin 1.12-1.08 dolar band\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131rarak, \u00f6nce 1.08-1.04 dolar, ard\u0131nda da 1.04-1.00 dolar band\u0131na ge\u00e7ece\u011fine dair beklentilerin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi ve bu nedenle T\u00fcrk i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 i\u00e7in Euro cinsinden bor\u00e7lanman\u0131n en az 1.5 y\u0131l daha cazip olabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentileri acilen g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmek ve Euro-dolar paritesinde, \u2018kirli kur sava\u015f\u0131\u2019na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 2016 i\u00e7in ortalama 1.12 dolar seviyesinde bir parite de\u011ferini dikkate almam\u0131z gerekebilir. Bu nedenle, 26-27 Ocak ilk FED toplant\u0131s\u0131na aman dikkat edelim.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"15-gunde-bile-trendler-degisiyor","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"15 g\u00fcnde bile trendler de\u011fi\u015fiyor","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":96,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}